伊朗停火憧憬撞正通脹實牆

今朝開市之前啲資金有啲追風咁樣 risk-on，背後無非兩個好脆弱嘅假設：一係伊朗肯坐低傾，中東油路重開；二係 Warsh 喺參議院聽證會放鴿，聯儲局會行友善啲嘅路線。S&P 期指一開就抽上去 [1]，順住禮拜一業績推動嗰浸氣 [2]。但係你估下呢？全球最大嗰班實貨油商直接出嚟潑冷水，話伊朗戰爭帶嚟嘅需求破壞「好戲仲未開場」[3] — 呢句話，就係直接打面原油 $87.37 呢個停火樂觀價位嘅耳光 [4]。德國 ZEW 投資者預期跌到 2022 年以嚟最差，官方自己講明係俾伊朗戰爭拖冧嘅 [5]。日本央行嗰邊更加搞笑，口講鷹派，身體誠實，下星期擺明傾向唔加息，藉口又係伊朗 [6]。你話係咪咁㗎？個個大國而家都攞伊朗戰爭嚟做政策癱瘓嘅擋箭牌，即係話成本推動型通脹條水喉繼續開住，關唔到。

今次最核心嘅矛盾，就係成本推動通脹同股票市場定緊軟著陸價，兩邊撞埋一齊。PPI 按年 6.03% [7]，CPI 按年 3.32% [8] — 中間差 271 點子嘅管道缺口。我話你聽，歷史上呢個缺口從來都係靠消費者物價追上去補，唔係靠生產者物價跌落嚟補嘅。核心 PCE 2.97% [9]，聯邦基金利率 3.64% [10]，實際利率得少少正數，通脹目標 2% 仲望塵莫及。噚日嗰個零售銷售數字爆升，一年以嚟最勁，而且全線類別都升 [11] — 即係話，「需求疲弱所以要減息」呢個最後嘅藉口都冇埋。10 年債息 4.264% [12]、30 年 4.88% [13]，債市嗰班大鱷擺明唔信乜嘢通脹回落嘅故仔，你睇唔睇得明？

VIX 期限結構 contango +8.36% [14]，現貨 18.9 [15]，前月期貨 20.48 [16] — 呢個結構其實幾健康，偏向磨上，唔係冧市格局。但係 put/call ratio 去到 1.833 [17]，睇落班大戶一邊追貨一邊狂買保險，唔係真係衝上去搶貨。呢種不對稱擺位，做法應該係開市追唔過、回吐揸貨、短線操作為主，唔好盲搶。

黃金 GLD $439 [18] 跌 0.7%，反映啲人已經將停火憧憬計埋入去 — 但你諗下，各國央行結構性買盤未停，DXY 闊基數 118.08 [19] 美元持續硬淨，外資入場買美債都會俾壓力，喺呢個大環境之下，金價呢浸弱勢係俾你短炒嘅機會，唔係轉勢，明唔明？

今日要盯嘅位：

SPY：710.61 [20] — 守得住，好友話事；跌穿 705，日內調轉做淡友
10 年債息：4.264% [12] — 升穿 4.30% 壓股票估值；跌返落 4.20% 以下就開綠燈追風險
原油期貨：$87.37 [4] — 持續跌穿 $85 即係停火落實；企穿 $90 成本推動通脹恐慌即刻返嚟
VIX：18.9 [15] — 升穿 21 就破咗 contango 呢條論述

要留意： 今日美國冇重磅數據。下個爆點係 4 月 30 日禮拜四嗰個 PCE — 核心 PCE 如果打出高過 3.1%（上次 2.97% [9]），減息故仔即刻一鋪清袋，短端要重新定價。另外，如果下晝美東時間 2 點前爆出伊朗停火破局嘅新聞標題，今日成個 risk-on 格局反轉直落，SPY 705 呢個位就會變咗磁石，吸住個價落去。

參考資料 [1] Bloomberg, "S&P 500 Futures Rally as Traders Await Updates on Iran, Warsh," Apr 21 2026. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-21/s-p-500-futures-rally-as-traders-await-updates-on-iran-warsh [2] Bloomberg, "Stocks Get Earnings Boost as Traders Focus on Iran: Markets Wrap," Apr 20 2026. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-20/-stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates [3] Bloomberg, "Top Oil Traders Warn Worst of Demand Hit From War Is Yet to Come," Apr 21 2026. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-21/top-oil-traders-warn-worst-of-demand-hit-from-war-is-yet-to-come [4] Crude futures $87.37, 2026-04-21 [5] Bloomberg, "German Investor Outlook Drops to Worst Since 2022 on Iran War," Apr 21 2026. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-21/german-investor-outlook-drops-to-worst-since-2022-on-iran-war [6] Bloomberg, "BOJ Is Said Leaning to April Hold While Keeping Hawkish Stance," Apr 21 2026. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-21/boj-is-said-leaning-to-april-hold-while-keeping-hawkish-stance [7] PPI YoY 6.03%, 2026-03-01 [8] CPI YoY 3.32%, 2026-03-01 [9] Core PCE YoY 2.97%, 2026-02-01 [10] Fed funds rate 3.64%, 2026-03-01 [11] Bloomberg, "US Retail Sales Surge by Most in a Year in Broad Advance," Apr 21 2026. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-21/us-retail-sales-surged-in-march-in-broad-advance [12] 10Y yield 4.264%, 2026-04-21 [13] 30Y yield 4.88%, 2026-04-21 [14] VIX contango +8.36%, 2026-04-21 [15] VIX spot 18.9, 2026-04-21 [16] VIX front future 20.48, 2026-04-21 [17] Put/call ratio 1.833, 2026-04-21 [18] GLD $439.00, -0.7%, 2026-04-21 [19] DXY broad 118.08, 2026-04-17 [20] SPY $710.61, 2026-04-21