伊朗停火憧憬點起科技股領頭嘅 Risk-On 狂升

收市前係一浪斬釘截鐵嘅 risk-on 狂升，臨收市嗰浪好友氣勢已經寫晒喺塊牌面——不過背後嘅原因，講地緣政治多過講基本因素。SPY 收 739.03，升 1.87% [1]；QQQ 就更加癲，抽到 718.40，勁升 3.56% [1]。呢個升幅已經講晒成日嘅性格畀你聽：呢個係集中喺幾隻巨型科技股嘅升市，根本唔係齊腳上。當納指 proxy 嘅升幅差唔多係標普嘅一倍，你話係咪靠嗰幾隻熟口熟面嘅名拉起？而嗰幾隻名，正正就係呢個分析框架成日講嘅後周期集中風險。

今日嘅主導訊號得一個，而且係外圍嘅:總統放風話美伊協議「最快今個週末」就簽得成 [2]，跟住每一個資產類別都即刻照住呢條頭條重新定價。油價插到兩個月低位——USO 跌 4.77% 至 127.90 [1]，近月原油跌 1.91 美元、收 85.80 [1]。呢個就係龍頭風險指標做緊佢應該做嘅嘢，佢一插，就係今次股市升浪嘅引擎。天然氣亦都confirm埋呢個能源unwind，UNG 跌 3.21% 至 11.17 [1]。

債市嘅反應加強咗 risk-on 嘅氣氛，但有個位本人要特別㩒住你睇。10 年期跌到 4.463%，TLT 升 1.23% 至 85.93 [1]——股市狂抽嘅同時債又有人接,呢個配搭唔係咁㗎喎，正常嚟講邊度會咁?咁就反映今次嘅郁動係全資產一齊拆「戰爭溢價」,而唔係乾乾淨淨咁由長債轉去股。2s10s 企喺 +40bp [1]，3個月對10年企 +84bp [1]，條孳息曲線正斜，但都係平平無奇。真正講故事嘅係長債嗰頭:30 年期企喺 4.951% [1]，仍然黐住 5% 上落，死都唔肯跟前段一齊跌——呢個分析框架當佢係「主變數」嘅結構性發債供應壓力,根本一吋都未郁過。再加上聯儲局維持每月 100 億美元嘅儲備管理買債 [6],而下星期就係新主席嘅第一次會議 [7],呢條水喉(plumbing)仍然係要睇實嘅嘢。

收市嗰陣 VIX 嘅 contango confirm 咗市況穩定,而唔係轉勢。現貨 VIX 報 19.44,近月期貨 20.40,contango 有 4.94% [1]。期貨高過現貨係正常、冇壓力嘅形態——個波幅複合體根本冇 price 緊危機。但係升咗 1.87% 之後現貨仲企喺 19.5 樓上,其實已經偏高;升市嘅同時大家照樣買緊保險,put/call ratio 1.093 [1] 都係咁講。喺高位仲要咁,你話呢個係咪你預期嗰種「鬆毛鬆翼」嘅部署?明顯唔係。

商品同避險嘅關係今次斷得最得意:金價乜都跟住升。GLD 抽 3.58% 至 388.00 [3],係兩個多月以嚟最大單日升幅——但佢竟然係同股票一齊升,而美元就跌咗一個月以嚟最勁嘅一浪 [4]。喺一個講「和平」嘅日子,金又愛唔確定性、又愛弱美元,兩樣一齊嚟,呢個就講畀你聽:啲資金係喺度對沖緊呢單停火 trade,而唔係真係信佢。

部署聽日:

SPY: 收 739.03 [1]——要留意個 gap 守唔守得住定係散水;如果跌返落 730 以下,就即係話伊朗呢浪升市只係一日 event。
原油: 85.80 [1]——跌穿 85 就 confirm 戰爭溢價已經完全出晒貨;倒返上 88 以上,就即係單 deal 散緊band。
30 年期孳息: 4.951% [1]——升穿 5.00% 嘅話,發債供應壓力就會重新蓋過 risk-on 嗰套故仔。

**要留意(隔夜):**亞洲股市預計會跟住華爾街高開 [5]。如果停火嘅頭條喺亞洲時段企得實,就預期美元弱勢 [4] 會延續、金價守得住升幅——但係只要伊朗單 deal 有少少縮沙,油、美元、連埋成個科技股嘅買盤,會一鋪過全部倒返轉頭。

參考資料 [1] Closing market data, June 11, 2026 [2] Oil Drops to Two-Month Low as Trump Says Deal With Iran Is Close — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-11/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-june-12 [3] Gold Jumps After Trump Signals US-Iran Truce Deal Is Close — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-10/gold-falls-for-third-day-as-us-launches-fresh-strikes-on-iran [4] Dollar Drops the Most in a Month as Trump Says the War Is Ending — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-11/dollar-drops-the-most-in-a-month-as-trump-says-the-war-is-ending [5] Asian Stocks to Gain as Trump Signals US-Iran Deal: Markets Wrap — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-11/asian-stocks-to-gain-as-trump-signals-us-iran-deal-markets-wrap [6] Fed to Maintain Reserve Management Purchases at $10 Billion — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-11/fed-to-maintain-reserve-management-purchases-at-10-billion [7] Pimco Sees Warsh Changing Fed Signals Without Silencing Them — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-11/pimco-sees-warsh-changing-fed-signals-without-silencing-them