科技股輪動拖累大市，華許首場議息考驗在即

收市風險偏好轉淡，但走得算斯文。本人盤前講過嘅嘢——一個頭重腳輕、根基脆弱嘅大市，喺指數層面會裂開，而底下嘅輪動引擎照樣運轉——而家應驗咗。SPY 收 750.33，跌 0.6% [1]，但呢個大字標題其實遮咗真正嘅故事:QQQ 跌 1.82%,收 730.44 [2],差唔多係大市跌幅嘅三倍。呢個唔係沽貨,係資金喺 AI/大型科技股嗰堆度走出嚟、輪去第二度,同海外講嗰句「資金追捧其他市場嘅 AI 贏家」掏空中國股市指數,係同一個套路 [6]。當帶頭嗰啲指數重磅股孭住跌幅、但市場闊度企得穩,你睇到嘅係集中度風險喺度發作,唔係恐慌性斬倉。你話係咪咁㗎?

當日最搶眼嘅訊號,係股債背馳。股跌,但 TLT 反而升 0.44%,收 86.10 [3],10 年期息率收 4.428% [4]——典型嘅避險資金,喺聽日 FOMC 之前湧入長存續期。喺呢度,債市點睇,比股市點行重要。孳息曲線守住輕微正斜形態,2 年對 10 年息差 +38 點子 [5],30 年期就死咬住 4.928% 唔肯落 [6]。長債嗰頭咁黐住唔郁,正正就係成個政策難題:新主席星期三要面對佢上任第一個決定 [7],背景係 CPI 4.27% [8] 同一個誇張到核突嘅 PPI 13.08% [9],而市場預期按兵不動,正正就係因為喺咁嘅國債發行同通脹背景下減息,會引爆長債息率。Citi 嗰邊死撐減息嘅論調 [10],睇落係用就業市場去同通脹數據對賭——係少數派,係有原因㗎。

VIX 嗰套嘢確認咗市況,而唔係打破咗。現貨收 16.41,對住近月期貨 18.30 [11],期貨溢價(contango)企喺 11.52% [11]——即係話,就算落咗一日,期限結構仍然正常向上斜。呢個就係破綻所在:納指跌 1.82%,都冇令曲線倒掛、都冇推現貨高過期貨。波動率市場當今日係調倉,唔係恐慌。Put/call 比率 1.119 [12]、IV rank 喺懶洋洋嘅 16.7 [12],即係話啲對沖盤係趁議息之前鋪定,唔係驚到喊住拆倉。你估下點解?

商品市場就交出最乾淨利落嘅宏觀故事。能源同避險嗰種關係,行到教科書咁靚:USO 冧 5.21% [13],原油期貨喺 75.79、貼近三個月低位 [14],原因係美伊臨時停火協議,加上荷姆茲海峽有機會重開、放一大浪供應出嚟 [15]。同一時間,金價就守得住——GLD 升 0.27%,收 397.63 [16]——就算油價插水都企得硬,因為協議紓緩咗戰爭推動嘅通脹,但執行落去仲有變數 [17]。天然氣就行自己嗰套,UNG 升 2.89% [18],跟住佢自己嘅天氣同供應時鐘行。油價跌,係送畀鴿派落台階嘅減通脹大禮;聽日聯儲收唔收呢份禮,就係問題所在。

布局聽日:

FOMC 決定(下午 2 點): 按兵不動已經反映晒喺價。要留意:30 年期——如果鷹派指引一出、息率升穿 5.00%,就坐實咗「冇得減」嘅論調;如果 TLT 升破 87,就代表市場聽到鴿派味。
QQQ 730: 呢個就係輪動分水嶺。守得住代表市場闊度健康;跌穿就打開落 720 嘅空間,輪動就會變成減險。
原油 75.79: 收喺 74 以下,就釘實咗減通脹順風;如果有人質疑荷姆茲、反彈升穿 78,就會倒返轉。

要留意隔夜: 日圓同日本國債(JGB)。日本貿易差額因為弱日圓推高入口成本而轉為逆差 [19]——美元兌日圓如果急郁一下,會扯住套息交易嗰條水喉,有機會喺美股現貨開市之前,搶先反映任何聯儲嘅意外。

參考資料 [1] Today's closing data: spy_price 750.33, spy_change -0.6% [2] Today's closing data: qqq_price 730.44, qqq_change -1.82% [3] Today's closing data: tlt_price 86.1, tlt_change +0.44% [4] Today's closing data: yield_10y 4.428% [5] Today's closing data: yield_curve_2_10 +38bp [6] China Stock Gauge Sinks as Traders Favor AI Winners Elsewhere — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-16/china-stock-gauge-sinks-as-traders-favor-ai-winners-elsewhere; yield_30y 4.928% [7] Warsh Faces First Big Test as Fed Chair — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-16/warsh-faces-first-big-test-as-fed-chair-decision-day-guide [8] Today's closing data: cpi_yoy 4.27 (as of 2026-05-01) [9] Today's closing data: ppi_yoy 13.08 (as of 2026-05-01) [10] Citi Chief US Economist Defends Unpopular Fed Rate-Cut Call — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-16/citi-chief-us-economist-defends-unpopular-fed-rate-cut-call [11] Today's closing data: vix_spot 16.41, vix_front_future 18.3, vix_contango_pct 11.52% [12] Today's closing data: put_call_ratio 1.119, iv_rank 16.7 [13] Today's closing data: uso_change -5.21% [14] Today's closing data: crude_futures 75.79; Oil Holds Near Three-Month Low — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-16/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-june-17 [15] Oil Holds Near Three-Month Low as Iran Deal Seen Boosting Supply — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-16/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-june-17 [16] Today's closing data: gld_price 397.63, gld_change +0.27% [17] Gold Holds Gain as US, Iran Prepare to Sign Interim Peace Deal — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-16/gold-holds-gain-as-us-iran-prepare-to-sign-interim-peace-deal [18] Today's closing data: ung_change +2.89% [19] Japan's Trade Balance Swings to Deficit as Yen Inflates Imports — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-16/japan-s-trade-balance-swings-to-deficit-as-tech-imports-surge