Warsh 上場第一個議息日：話事權喺債市手上

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Warsh 上場第一個議息日：話事權喺債市手上

本人開門見山講句：今晚美股一開市就係「靜雞雞」嘅格局，股、債、美元三樣嘢全部喺度兜圈,大家都喺度等今晚聯儲局個決定——而且係新主席 Kevin Warsh 上場後嘅第一次 [11]。隔夜油價一度跌穿三個月新低先至彈返上嚟,原油期貨報 76.27 [1],仲係受緊個美伊協議拖累,因為一旦傾掂就有額外原油湧出嚟 [2]。波幅市場就好淡定:VIX 現貨 16.34,遠低過 18.27 嘅近月期貨,期貨溢價(contango)企喺 +11.81% [3]——呢個結構叫做穩陣,根本唔係恐慌訊號。你話係咪咁㗎?

成個盤面真正主題,係呢個其實係場債市戲,只係戴住個「議息」嘅面具上場咋。有此分析框架就形容,呢個係「債市之夏」嘅開端 [4],而眼前個格局正正撐得住呢個講法。10 年期企喺 4.434%、30 年期 4.928% [5],2 年同 10 年息差 +38 點子 [6]——條孳息曲線轉陡,即係話真正幫資金成本定價嘅,係長債嗰一端,唔係聯儲局。呢個分析框架嘅老邏輯今次照樣 work:赤字逼到政府要不斷發債,聯儲局就算想放鴿都唔敢,一放長債息隨時抽上去。今次仲麻煩嘅係,啲硬數據死都唔肯軟——5 月零售銷售勁升 0.9% [7],就算油價咁貴都頂得住 [8],等於畀晒藉口 Warsh 繼續收緊,去應付 4.27% 嘅 CPI 同埋嚇死人嘅 13.08% PPI [9]。

持倉方面,我話你聽,宜家要小心。認沽認購比率 1.119 [10],反映有人喺度買保險對沖,而唔係嗰種「跌到落地」前先見到嘅破紀錄自滿。同時 IV rank 得 14.8、平價引伸波幅淨係 12.5% [11],即係期權市場估個反應會好溫吞——但呢種格局,一旦個政策錨被抽走、出個鷹派驚喜,就會即刻爆炸式重新定價。

日內方面,本人偏向溫和睇好,但係有條件嘅。VIX 正向期貨溢價(+11.81%)[3] 令到結構性偏好仍然係做好、唔係做淡——要做淡就要見到逆價差(backwardation)先得。宜家 SPY 報 750.73(+0.05%)、QQQ 強啲報 733.32(+0.47%)[12],即係科技股喺度托住個大市入場。個樞紐位就係 10 年期息:孳息高位回落,風險資產就有人接;一旦因為鷹派指引而升穿 4.50%,成個盤面即刻反轉。

今日重點關口:

10 年期孳息:4.434% [5]——守得住下面就 risk-on;若果出鷹派指引升穿 4.50%,個市就轉淡。
SPY:750.73 [12]——748 係好淡分界,持續跌穿就開埋去 744。
QQQ:733.32 [12]——企穩 730 之上,龍頭未變;跌穿就升市冇晒引擎。
原油:76.27 [1]——若果乾淨利落跌穿三個月低位 [2],即係伊朗協議已經被消化,進一步餵飼緊個「通縮+債市好友」嘅劇本。
VIX 現貨:16.34 [3]——一旦升穿 18.27 嗰張期貨,期貨溢價就會冧,個偏好即刻轉做淡。

**要留意:**今晚個 FOMC 決定,同 Warsh 第一次主持記者會——聽真佢會唔會重申個 2% 通脹錨 [13]。一旦佢拎走或者放軟呢個錨,長債息即刻抽上,風險資產嗰啲買盤一秒收檔。下一個硬催化劑:PCE/個人收入及支出,6 月 25 號(星期四)。

仲有,若果美伊真係簽實 [2],油價斬釘截鐵跌穿三個月低位,咁就乜都唔同晒——通脹預期(breakeven)冧、10 年期被扯落去 4.30%,本來一個緊張兮兮嘅議息日磨叽市,會變成由債市帶頭嘅融漲(melt-up),無論 Warsh 個口風點都好。你估下到時啲淡友仲企唔企得住?

參考資料 [1] Crude futures 76.27 (CURRENT DATA, commodities, 2026-06-17) [2] Oil Stems Decline as Traders Await Signing of US-Iran Deal — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-16/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-june-17 [3] VIX spot 16.34 / front future 18.27 / contango +11.81% (CURRENT DATA, 2026-06-17) [4] We're Entering a 'Summer of the Bond Market,' Goncalves Says — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-06-17/this-will-be-a-summer-of-the-bond-market-goncalves-says-video [5] 10Y 4.434%, 30Y 4.928% (CURRENT DATA, bonds, 2026-06-17) [6] 2s10s +38bp (CURRENT DATA, bonds, 2026-06-16) [7] US Retail Sales Surge in May Despite High Gasoline Prices — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-06-17/us-may-retail-sales-surge-despite-high-gasoline-prices-video [8] US Retail Sales Rise in Broad Gain Despite Higher Gas Prices — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-17/us-retail-sales-jumped-in-may-despite-high-gasoline-costs [9] CPI 4.27% YoY, PPI 13.08% YoY (CURRENT DATA, macro, 2026-05-01) [10] Put/call ratio 1.119 (CURRENT DATA, options signals, 2026-06-17) [11] Stocks, Bonds, Dollar Churn in Countdown to Fed: Markets Wrap — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-16/asian-stocks-to-slip-ahead-of-fed-oil-steadies-markets-wrap; IV rank 14.8, ATM IV 12.5% (CURRENT DATA, 2026-06-17) [12] SPY 750.73 (+0.05%), QQQ 733.32 (+0.47%) (CURRENT DATA, equities, 2026-06-17) [13] Key Question for Kevin Warsh's Fed Is Whether to Remove Its Policy Anchor — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-06-17/key-question-for-kevin-warsh-s-fed-is-whether-to-remove-its-policy-anchor

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