科技股大冧蓋過伊朗緩和　油價因豁免令插水

今日收市軟皮蛇，內部各走各路——典型「好淡爭持」嘅一日，得一隻股票拆倉，就足以蓋過成個本來偏向追風險嘅宏觀大環境。SPY 收 744.5，跌 0.3% [1]，QQQ 收 737.99，跌 0.36% [2]，兩者都喺破頂邊緣縮沙，皆因 SpaceX 連跌三日，今日再蒸發埋 6,000 億美元市值 [3][4]。如果開市前嘅睇法係：大型 AI 股嘅集中度風險，比當日嗰單地緣政治頭條更要緊，咁今日就清清楚楚應驗咗——美國向伊朗發出 60 日石油銷售豁免令 [5]，係真真正正嘅局勢降溫，本來應該托起一個由地緣政治主導嘅大市——但指數照樣收紅，因為呢個泡沫得嗰幾隻領頭羊，一裂開就散晒。你話係咪咁㗎？

今日最強嘅訊號係能源。原油期貨插 1.78 美元至 74.07 [6]，USO 跌 2.27% 至 112.27 [7]，皆因豁免令將受制裁嘅伊朗原油重新放返入國際市場 [5]。呢個就係此分析框架嘅頭號風險指標喺度做緊嘢：行先一步預示局勢降溫嘅，係油價，唔係 VIX。呢個走勢抽走咗通脹動力——對「通脹回落」嘅論點係好友消息，但對一個已經要同 4.27% CPI [8]、同埋一個嚇死人嘅 13.08% PPI [9] 角力嘅市場嚟講，就幫唔到手。

債市先至講出更難頂嘅故事。10 年期收 4.509%，30 年期收 4.947% [10][11]，TLT 跌 0.72% 至 86.125 [12]——股市跌、油價插嘅一日，孳息率竟然升。呢個唔係走去避險嗰種買盤，呢個係結構性問題擺到明喺你面前。長債逼近 5%，就算風險資產喐喐貢，呢個收市都印證咗一點：聯儲局喺呢個發債日程之下根本減唔到息，因為債市會否決佢。2 年同 10 年息差企喺 +27 點子 [13]，3 個月同 10 年息差 +83 點子 [14]——曲線向上斜，冇衰退嘅尖叫聲，得返持續嘅期限溢價壓力。留意埋背後嗰幅供應牆：SpaceX 200 億美元嘅首次發債 [15]、Sony 幾十年嚟第一次發美元債 [16]，全部都係喺呢個孳息水平之下落地。你估下班發債人心裡幾噏氣？

VIX 期限結構係確認咗呢個格局，而唔係扭轉佢。現貨收 17.28，對住前月期貨 18.49——7.0% 嘅正價差 [17]。呢個係一個冷靜、會均值回歸嘅結構；冇倒掛，冇壓力訊號，雖然科技股喺度拆倉。Put/call 比率 1.05 [18] 顯示對沖需求係有，但未到恐慌;IV rank 喺 21.7 [19],反映已實現波幅仍然受控。呢個係自滿喺度頂住,而唔係爆煲。

避險嘅關係喺邊緣位甩咗章:黃金冇接到買盤,GLD 跌 0.63% 至 384.7 [20]。喺一個股市避險嘅日子,黃金跟住長債孳息走高一齊跌,其實合理——實質孳息高咗,就等於向冇息收嘅金屬抽稅——但呢個亦即係話,今日嗰種「不確定性買盤」係冇出現過。美元(UUP 28.36 [21])企穩,個樞紐頂得住。

為聽日鋪路:

• 10 年期孳息:收喺 4.55% 之上,即係發債／期限溢價嘅論點正在加速;跌返落 4.45% 以下,就紓緩股市壓力。
• 原油(74.07 [6]):睇吓豁免令引發嘅沽售會唔會跌穿 72,定係伊朗談判拖死就反彈——能源為週四 PCE [Jun 25] 之前嘅通脹定調。
• QQQ／SpaceX 板塊:第四日跌穿 735,就會將一隻股票嘅崩盤,變成一單集中度風險事件。

要留意:隔夜走勢—— 英國國債,同埋 Starmer 落台之後嗰個財相懸而未決嘅局面 [22]——倫敦長債一抽搐,喺美股開市之前就會傳導去美國國債,進一步加劇聽日嘅孳息格局。本人話你聽,呢度唔係咁簡單㗎。

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參考資料 [1] SPY close 744.5, −0.3% (20260622 data) [2] QQQ close 737.99, −0.36% (20260622 data) [3] SpaceX Falls for Third Day, Erases $600 Billion In Market Value — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-22/spacex-shares-poised-to-slide-again-as-us-market-reopens [4] Stocks Fall as SpaceX's Rout Offsets US-Iran Hopes: Markets Wrap — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-21/us-futures-slip-oil-climbs-on-renewed-iran-threat-markets-wrap [5] Iran Oil Waiver Offers Lifeline to Tehran as Talks Proceed — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-22/iran-war-vance-hails-good-day-of-talks-as-us-waives-oil-sanctions [6] Crude futures 74.07, −$1.78 (20260622 data) [7] USO close 112.27, −2.27% (20260622 data) [8] CPI YoY 4.27% (as of 2026-05-01) [9] PPI YoY 13.08% (as of 2026-05-01) [10] 10Y yield 4.509% (20260622 data) [11] 30Y yield 4.947% (20260622 data) [12] TLT close 86.125, −0.72% (20260622 data) [13] 2s10s curve +27bp (as of 2026-06-18) [14] 3m10y curve +83bp (20260622 data) [15] SpaceX Readies Its $20 Billion Bond Debut to Fund AI Ambition — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-22/spacex-kicks-off-debut-us-dollar-investment-grade-bond-offering [16] Sony Plans Its First Dollar-Bond Sale in Nearly Three Decades — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-22/sony-plans-its-first-dollar-bond-sale-in-nearly-three-decades [17] VIX spot 17.28, front future 18.49, contango 7.0% (20260622 data) [18] Put/call ratio 1.05 (20260622 data) [19] IV rank 21.7 (20260622 data) [20] GLD close 384.7, −0.63% (20260622 data) [21] UUP close 28.36 (20260622 data) [22] Bond Traders Plot Impact of Next UK Chancellor With Starmer Out — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-22/bond-traders-want-to-know-who-manages-the-money-with-starmer-out