油價插水抽乾風險溢價 AI 概念盤翻生

未開市本人已經睇到,今日呢場戲全靠一個催化劑撐起,收市果陣完全應驗晒。Micron 份銷售展望勁到爆錶,一嘢就將人工智能概念盤重新炒起 [10],拖住個納指代表 QQQ 抽高:QQQ 收 724.54,升 1.53% [1],差唔多係大市嘅三倍升幅;而 SPY 就收 737.20,升 0.49% [2]。我話你聽,呢個唔係全面升市,而係集中喺超大型股同 AI 嘅買盤——正正就係呢個分析框架一路話畀你聽嘅:升市領頭羊咁窄,就係周期末段嘅典型特徵。記憶體晶片股一力擔起成個大市 [3][4],其餘嘅就係跟住食�env... 跟車食塵啫。升完之後,JPMorgan 嘅策略員已經出嚟電視提醒大家提防 AI 估值 [5]——好友同泡沫派握手,你話幾諷刺?

不過今日真正主菜,係能源。布蘭特原油打回原形,把開戰以嚟嘅升幅全部蒸發,因為美伊和談有進展,荷姆茲海峽嘅油流大增 [6]。USO 插 4.47%,跌到 106.29 [7],近月原油跌 1.20 美元,報 69.14 [8]。呢個分析框架一向睇油價期限結構重過睇 VIX,當佢係通脹同風險嘅頭號指標。單日地緣溢價跌足 4% 以上,其實比 Micron 重要得多——佢直接 reset 成條通脹路徑,所以歐洲央行(ECB)早已經出嚟講,平油有助物價穩定 [9]。你話係咪咁㗎?

債市睇得好通透。油價帶動嘅通脹溢價一抽乾,美債即刻彈:TLT 收 87.45,升 1.45% [10],推低 10 年期孳息至 4.402% [11],30 年期至 4.856% [12]。2 年同 10 年息差守喺 +30 點子 [13],3 個月對 10 年企喺 +71 點子 [14]——正斜率,唔係衰退嗰種倒掛形態。但係要留意個主變量背景:聯儲局一份報告證實,現貨對期貨嘅 basis trade(基差交易)而家已經係對沖基金持債嘅關鍵推手 [15],正正就係呢個分析框架最當佢係尾部風險嘅隱形槓桿管道。你估下:一場部分靠槓桿基差盤撐起嘅債市升浪,同真正嘅避險需求,係咪同一回事?梗係唔係咁喇。

波幅市場呢?佢確認咗市況平靜,而唔係話有轉勢。VIX 現貨收 18.63,對住近月期貨 19.01——升水 2.04% [16]。呢種輕微正升水,係教科書式嘅靜市結構;唔見有現貨高過期貨嗰種倒掛,而倒掛先至會將 ETF 嘅 roll 機制翻轉成恐慌反饋循環。Put/Call 比率喺 1.014 [17],係平衡,唔係見頂前嗰種破紀錄式自滿。

商品同避險盤嘅表現,完全照足油價論點走。黃金被人狠狠拋售——GLD 跌 2.47%,報 367.99 [18]——因為同一場壓低原油嘅地緣降溫,亦都抽走咗黃金嘅恐慌買盤。黃金最鍾意不確定性;今日不確定性走人喇。能源同避險嘅關係,守住教科書式嘅反向對稱:風險溢價同時離開油同金,流入股同債。

部署聽日:

PCE(美東周四 8:30) [release]:核心 PCE 上次報 3.29% [19]。數字一炒起,即刻同今日嘅債市升浪硬碰——要留意 10 年期 4.40% [11] 呢條線;一旦升穿,今日嘅久期升幅就打回頭。
原油 69 / USO 106 [7][8]:荷姆茲鬆綁已經 price in 晒。任何重新升級嘅標題,都會將溢價重新吹脹,連黃金同通脹讀數一齊掉頭。

要留意隔夜: 日本央行(BOJ)有官員提出每隔幾個月就加息一次 [BOJ],而日本 10 年期企喺 2.65%——BOJ 一個鷹派意外,就會壓住日圓套息盤同今日點名嗰條基差交易管道 [15]。

參考資料 [1] QQQ close 724.54, +1.53% (20260624 data) [2] SPY close 737.20, +0.49% (20260624 data) [3] SK Hynix, Micron Solidify Memory Chips as Runaway Stars of AI — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-25/sk-hynix-micron-solidify-memory-chips-as-runaway-stars-of-ai [4] Micron Soars After AI-Fueled Forecast Shatters Estimates — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-24/micron-sales-forecast-tops-estimates-on-insatiable-memory-demand [5] JPMorgan's Craig on AI Valuation Concerns — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-06-25/jpmorgan-s-craig-on-ai-valuation-concerns-video [6] Brent Oil Erases Wartime Gains as Hormuz Reopening Boosts Supply — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-24/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-june-25 [7] USO close 106.29, −4.47% (20260624 data) [8] Crude futures 69.14, −$1.20 dollar change (20260624 data) [9] ECB's Zigman Says Price Stability Is Key, Cheaper Oil Will Help — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-24/ecb-s-zigman-says-price-stability-is-key-cheaper-oil-will-help [10] TLT close 87.45, +1.45%; Stocks Rally as Micron Revives AI Trade, Oil Drops — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-24/us-stock-futures-surge-on-micron-s-strong-forecast-markets-wrap [11] 10-year yield 4.402% (20260624 data) [12] 30-year yield 4.856% (20260624 data) [13] 2s10s curve +30bp (20260624 data) [14] 3m10y curve +71bp (20260624 data) [15] Basis Trade Fuels Hedge Funds' US Bond Exposure: Fed Report — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-24/fed-says-basis-trade-key-driver-of-hedge-fund-treasury-exposure [16] VIX spot 18.63, front future 19.01, contango 2.04% (20260624 data) [17] Put/call ratio 1.014 (20260624 data) [18] GLD close 367.99, −2.47% (20260624 data) [19] Core PCE YoY 3.29% as of 2026-04-01 (20260624 data) [BOJ] BOJ's Tamura Calls for Raising Interest Rate Every Few Months — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-25/boj-s-tamura-calls-for-raising-interest-rate-every-few-months

兩點講清楚畀你知:

正文人名已全部清走 — 「JPMorgan 嘅策略員」「歐洲央行(ECB)」「聯儲局」「日本央行(BOJ)有官員」都保留咗機構名,但刪走咗 Tamura 等個人姓名,正文亦無提及任何評論員姓名,改用「呢個分析框架」「此分析」。
參考資料維持原狀 — 嗰部分係 Bloomberg 真實文章標題同 URL(屬事實引用來源),按你「保持格式」嘅要求原封不動保留,所以連結標題仍含原作者名。如果你連參考資料入面嘅人名都想一併清走,出聲,本人即刻幫你改。