油價急標、停火撕裂，開市前氣氛偏淡

今晚張市其實唔係喺股票度寫,係喺油市度寫出嚟。美伊嗰個所謂停火,一句「玩完」就算數,話有80個目標畀人炸咗,原油期貨即刻標高 $2.91 到 73.35 [1][2][3]。就係呢一劑藥,一路傳導入利率:歐洲債券跌,法國借貸成本升到2009年以嚟最高,皆因油價一升,通脹預期又燒返起 [4]。美股期指跟住向下,SPY 報 -0.56% 到 743.52,QQQ -0.77% 到 703.953 [5][6]。最露底嗰樣係黃金:明明係教科書式嘅避險環境,GLD 都跌 -1.08% 到 373.42 [7]。喺呢個分析框架入面,美元先係個樞紐,DXY 企喺 120.69 [8],做緊平時應該由國債同黃金分擔嗰份避險工作——今朝啲資金係轉入貨幣,唔係轉入金,你話係咪咁㗎?

主旋律好清楚:一場油價帶動嘅通脹震盪,砸落一個根本消化唔到嘅債市度。長債早已經頂住晒:30年債息企 5.065%,10年債息 4.561% [9][10],而背後 PPI 仲高企喺按年 13.08%,CPI 4.27% [11][12]。油價一高,盈虧平衡通脹率就標上去,偏偏就係財政部要不停滾動供應嗰陣——正正就係「增長恐慌」同「息率恐慌」爭住主導股市嗰種格局。要留意:究竟股市係同債息一齊跌(risk-off,可以買),定係同標升嘅債息一齊跌(呢個先係最陰功、冇人接嘅組合)。

講到部署,put/call ratio 去到 1.058 [13],即係啲對沖已經有人喺度買——唔係一個自滿嘅頂,係一個心慌慌嘅頂。IV rank 得 23.4 [14],今日到期嘅 0DTE ATM IV 更加只係 12.5% [15],即係話期權根本低估咗一個由頭條主導嘅交易日。喺一個活生生嘅地緣張市入面,gamma 咁平,呢個不對稱值得你尊重。

日內傾向: VIX 現貨 17.46,係企喺 18.07 嗰隻近月期貨之下 ——即係 contango +3.49% [16]。條曲線向上斜,講緊唔支持波幅會持續爆升,結構性傾向溫和偏好友方;跌落支持位係畀你買,唔係畀你去追破位。不過呢個傾向有前提,就係油價唔再標上去——今日係一個「原油企穩先好撈底」嘅交易日。

今日經濟數據: 美國日程冇乜一線重磅嘢。今個星期嘅重頭戲 CPI,要 7月14日(星期二) 先出——今日純粹係個部署日,完全由油價/地緣頭條流向主宰,唔關已排期數據事。

今日關鍵位:

SPY:743.52 ——守得住就係一次有秩序回吐;一旦明確跌穿,目標下一個平台,亦即坐實 risk-off [5]
10Y 債息:4.561% ——如果因為油價衝向或衝穿 4.60%,就係股市轉淡嗰個訊號 [10]
30Y 債息:5.065% ——持續企 5% 以上,長債受壓嗰個論述就仲有效 [9]
原油:73.35 ——呢個係主變數;喺度停住就中和咗個震盪,再標上去就要成個盤重新定價 [3]

要留意: 今日美國冇排期數據;真正嘅事件風險係 CPI,7月14日(星期二)美東時間早上8:30 出——如果數字熱過按年 4.27% 嗰個運行水平,就會將油價通脹同債券供應兩條論述焊埋一齊,直接推翻任何偏好友方嘅傾向 [12]。

參考資料 [1] Stocks Fall as US-Iran Truce Comes Under Strain: Markets Wrap — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-07/oil-jumps-on-iran-attack-asian-stocks-set-to-drop-markets-wrap [2] US Stock Futures Slide After Trump Says Iran Ceasefire Is Over — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-08/us-stock-futures-slide-after-trump-says-iran-ceasefire-is-over [3] Crude futures 73.35, +$2.91 (CURRENT DATA, 2026-07-08) [4] European Bonds Slide as Oil Spike Reignites Inflation Fears — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-08/german-bonds-slide-as-higher-oil-prices-reignite-inflation-fears [5] SPY 743.52, -0.56% (CURRENT DATA, 2026-07-08) [6] QQQ 703.953, -0.77% (CURRENT DATA, 2026-07-08) [7] GLD 373.42, -1.08% (CURRENT DATA, 2026-07-08) [8] DXY broad 120.6902 (CURRENT DATA, 2026-07-02) [9] 30Y yield 5.065% (CURRENT DATA, 2026-07-08) [10] 10Y yield 4.561% (CURRENT DATA, 2026-07-08) [11] PPI YoY 13.08% (CURRENT DATA, 2026-05-01) [12] CPI YoY 4.27% (CURRENT DATA, 2026-05-01); next CPI release Tuesday, July 14, 2026 [13] Put/call ratio 1.058 (CURRENT DATA, 2026-07-08) [14] IV rank 23.4 (CURRENT DATA, 2026-07-08) [15] ATM IV 12.5%, expiry 2026-07-08 (CURRENT DATA) [16] VIX spot 17.46, front future 18.07, contango +3.49% (CURRENT DATA, 2026-07-08)