荷姆茲封鎖迫出油價帶動嘅滯脹交易

本人開門見山講 — 夜晚個市只係price緊一件事：荷姆茲海峽由「風險新聞」變咗實質封鎖。週末美軍扣押咗伊朗船隻，德黑蘭又向商船開火[1][2]，到美股開市前，商業航運已經完全停擺。跟住科威特就原油同成品油出口宣布「不可抗力」[3]，一單地緣政治對峙，即刻變成實物供應衝擊。原油收$87.07，一日抽升$4.48[4]，USO升4.71%[5]，UNG升1.2%[6]。

跨資產反應？教科書式嘅成本推動型通脹：股同債一齊散水。SPY跌0.36%到707.61[7]，QQQ跌0.3%到646.91[8]，10年債息企喺4.266%，30年喺4.896%[9][10] — 長債點解唔肯接貨？因為今次係通脹衝擊，唔係通縮。TLT跌0.22%到86.88[11]，呢個就係證明。

你估下點解個市會睇錯局？就係搞錯咗呢個制度。加拿大3月CPI單係汽油已經推到2.4%[12]，仲要係未升級之前嘅數字。巴西經濟學家又話要因為伊朗戰爭調高2026-2027嘅Selic利率預測[13]。呢個分析框架一早講過：成本推動型通脹，聯儲根本冇得減息 — 原油升$4.48，直頭就係對CPI加稅，減息預期只會愈推愈後。仲有黃金，呢個分析框架將佢當成替代避險資產，今日跌1.05%到441.27[14] — 即係話今日個flow係平倉式美元需求，唔係傳統嘅risk-off避險盤。你話係咪咁㗎？

波幅被低估。VIX現貨18.93，前月期貨20.68，contango +9.24%[15] — 按照呢個分析框架「淨backwardation先做淡」嘅規則，依然係好友主導。但係put/call ratio去到2.644[16]，ATM IV喺16.02%等緊星期五到期[17]，即係話dealer正喺度食緊大量對沖需求。呢個係壓緊嘅彈弓：contango叫你唔好追淡，但skew又叫你唔好追好。即係邊邊都唔好搏。

今日要睇嘅關鍵位：

SPY：707.61 — 守得住就contango勝出；跌穿705，gamma窗口開到去700[7]
10年債息：4.30% — 穿咗就由「供應衝擊」升級做「滯脹破位」[9]
原油：$85 — 跌穿即係荷姆茲有緩解；企穩$87以上，CPI路徑繼續燒[4]
DXY broad：118.86 — 結構上偏重；呢度抽升即係外資被迫劈美債[18]
黃金 441 — 收返上就avoid haven bid重新成立；失守就confirm美元流動性擠壓[14]

要留意： 今日同未來14日冇任何美國經濟數據公布 — 個市完全由荷姆茲航運同伊朗外交消息主導[19]。如果confirm海峽重開，又或者伊朗派代表去巴基斯坦傾第二輪和談[20]，局面即刻反轉：原油mean revert $3-5，債息跌8-12bp，做空波幅嘅contango trade就會係星期五到期前嘅乾淨玩法。我話你聽，個市而家就係等呢個消息。

參考資料 [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-19/us-futures-fall-oil-jumps-as-iran-tensions-worsen-markets-wrap [2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-20/hormuz-traffic-at-standstill-as-us-vessel-seizure-widens-risk [3] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-20/kuwait-declares-force-majeure-on-oil-shipments-on-hormuz-halt [4] Crude futures $87.07, +$4.48 [2026-04-20] [5] USO $121.51, +4.71% [2026-04-20] [6] UNG $10.97, +1.2% [2026-04-20] [7] SPY $707.61, -0.36% [2026-04-20] [8] QQQ $646.91, -0.3% [2026-04-20] [9] 10Y yield 4.266% [2026-04-20] [10] 30Y yield 4.896% [2026-04-20] [11] TLT $86.88, -0.22% [2026-04-20] [12] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-20/canada-inflation-jumps-to-2-4-as-iran-war-drives-up-gas-prices [13] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-20/brazil-economists-lift-selic-2026-2027-forecasts-on-oil-spike [14] GLD $441.27, -1.05% [2026-04-20] [15] VIX spot 18.93, front future 20.68, contango +9.24% [2026-04-20] [16] Put/call ratio 2.644 [2026-04-20] [17] ATM IV 16.02%, expiry 2026-04-24 [18] DXY broad 118.8552 [2026-04-10] [19] US economic calendar: no scheduled releases next 14 days [20] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-20/iran-wavers-on-peace-talks-as-tensions-rise-after-us-seizes-ship

荷姆茲封鎖 迫出油價帶動嘅滯脹交易