創新高表象底下，通脹與聯儲局內訌風險暗湧

星期五收市標準教科書式風險偏好走勢，但底下嘅暗湧就好唔妥。SPY收737.36，升0.79% [1]，QQQ更加爆升2.33%到711.13 [1]，晶片股喺就業數據強勁下領漲 [2]。盤前話勞工數據主導大局——呢一點冇錯——但跟住話「好消息就係好消息」？我話你聽，呢個分析框架同主流講法，就係喺呢度分道揚鑣。初領失業金人數200,000 [3]、續領1.766M [3]，你估呢啲數字夠唔夠俾聯儲局藉口減息？CPI按年3.32% [3]、PPI仲要6.03% [3]添，你話係咪咁㗎？Goolsbee嗰句「所有選項都喺枱面」 [4]，講真不過係鴿派做騷啫；結構性現實係：核心PCE 3.2% [3]、加上荷姆茲海峽風險帶嚟嘅成本推動通脹 [5]，要減息？除非重新錨定通脹預期，否則機械上根本做唔到。

當日最大訊號，就係股市同消費者之間嘅背離。股市創新高 [2]，但消費者信心因為通脹焦慮跌到歷史新低 [6]。資本嗰邊狂歡、家庭嗰邊殘廢——呢個落差，正正就係此分析一直警告嘅泡沫脆弱性。CAPE估值拉到爆嘅指數，靠AI資本開支撐住（Anthropic同Akamai簽18億美元大單 [7]、Cerebras上調IPO定價區間 [8]），對住嘅卻係一個再食唔起多一次能源衝擊嘅家庭板塊。CoreWeave因為前景指引拖累股價跌 [9]，就係第一道裂痕：當AI股業績超預期都俾人沽，呢個就係驗證落差正在擴大。

債市收市前略為造好——TLT升0.49%到86.07 [1]，10年期4.364% [1]，30年期4.947% [1]。2-10年息差0.49% [1]、3個月-10年息差0.769% [1]，呢種重新陡峭化，歷史上係領先衰退認知，唔係跟尾。標題講「國債造好，焦點轉向通脹」 [10]，呢句就係實情：個買盤係喺度部署緊下星期二嘅CPI，唔係話相信聯儲局嘅公信力。5年期4.013% [1] 錨喺聯邦基金利率3.64% [3] 之上，市場其實係話畀你聽——期限溢價仲要繼續擴張。

VIX期貨溢價收市11.69% [1]，現貨VIX 17.19 [1]、近月期貨19.20 [1]。呢個係正常市況曲線——唔係危機結構——但好友淡友比例（put/call ratio）1.373 [1]，加上股市創新高，呢種不協調你不得不留神。5月15日到期嘅平價引伸波幅得11.55% [1]，CPI前對沖成本係咁平，要諗下點解。

商品繼續演通脹劇本。金價收433.20、升0.35% [1]，喺德國國債2.91% [3]、英國國債4.70% [3] 反映歐洲因伊朗緊張局勢嘅通脹風險下，繼續有承接 [11]。原油期貨94.94 [1]（USO跌0.91% [1]）係整固唔係回吐——荷姆茲依然係扼喉位 [5]。美匯廣義指數118.39 [3]，繼續壓住外國對美債嘅需求。

部署聽日：

SPY 737.36 [1]：740係心理整數位磁石；星期一守唔住732，put淡盤過重嘅1.373 P/C [1] 就會反轉變動量平倉。
10年期孳息4.364% [1]：CPI前升穿4.45%，反映供應消化不良；跌穿4.30%，即係CPI對沖盤主導。
金價433.20 [1]：守住430而原油喺94以上，即係成本推動格局未變。

**隔夜要留意：**日本10年期國債2.345% [3]——星期日東京開市如果谷向2.50%，影響會直接滲入德債同美債，喺現貨開市前已經發酵。

參考資料 [1] Closing data, 2026-05-08 [2] Stocks Hit Record High on Jobs as Chipmakers Surge — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-07/us-stock-futures-fall-oil-climbs-on-iran-tensions-markets-wrap [3] FRED / market data, latest as of 2026-05-08 [4] Fed's Goolsbee Says All Interest-Rate Options Are On The Table — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-08/fed-s-goolsbee-says-all-interest-rate-options-are-on-the-table [5] Iran Still Has a Strangle on The World's Economy Because Hormuz — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-05-08/iran-still-has-a-strangle-on-the-world-s-economy-dagres-video [6] US Consumer Sentiment Falls to Record Low on Inflation Angst — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-08/us-consumer-sentiment-declines-to-record-low-on-inflation-angst [7] Anthropic Inks $1.8 Billion Computing Deal With Akamai — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-08/anthropic-inks-1-8-billion-computing-deal-with-akamai [8] AI Chipmaker Cerebras Is Said to Plan Raising IPO Price Range — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-08/ai-chipmaker-cerebras-is-said-to-plan-raising-ipo-price-range [9] CoreWeave Shares Drop After Forecast Sparks Growth Fears — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-05-08/bloomberg-tech-5-8-2026-video [10] Treasuries Gain to End Choppy Week as Focus Shifts to Inflation — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-08/treasuries-gain-ahead-of-us-payrolls-with-jobs-growth-expected [11] ECB Is 'Highly Vigilant' to Rising Inflation Risks, Nagel Says — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-08/ecb-is-highly-vigilant-to-rising-inflation-risks-nagel-says