伊朗僵局封住歷史新高長債繼續流血

收市嘅情況，同盤前估嘅一半啱嘅：大市的確由歷史高位回落，等緊伊朗回應 [1]，但回吐都算斯文，唔算狼死。SPY 收 731.20，跌 0.36% [2]，QQQ 收 694.87，僅跌 0.13% [2]——表面睇張圖好似頹咗，但真正嘅戲肉，唔喺現貨市場，係喺長債嗰邊同埋能源板塊度上演緊。本周宏觀主旋律係咩？就係由霍爾木茲海峽輸入嘅成本推動型通脹，今日收市更加確認呢個睇法。

今日最強烈嘅訊號，就係孳息曲線前後段嘅分歧。2 年期企 3.86% [3]，10 年期收 4.392% [3]，30 年期更加衝上 4.969% [3]——標準嘅熊市陡峭化（bear steepener），教科書級數應對油價推動通脹嘅反應，連減息都救唔到。2s10s 息差 0.49% [3]，3 個月對 10 年期 0.794% [3]，呢條曲線正常化嘅方向係錯㗎：長息上升係因為期限溢價（term premium）正在重新定價，要 price in 一場能源衝擊；今日連 ECB 鷹派都明撐，話如果衝擊擴散就要加息 [4]。TLT 收 85.77，跌 0.36% [2]，即係話喺股市避險嘅日子，長債都冇人接貨。

債市嘅訊號好清楚：CPI 3.32% [5]，PPI 6.03% [5]，核心 PCE 3.2% [5]，聯邦基金利率 3.64% [5]——對住整體通脹只係勉強正實質利率，對 PPI 已經係負數。初領失業金人數 200,000 [5]，呢個勞工市場數據根本俾唔到聯儲局任何藉口去鬆銀根應對油價衝擊。今日仲爆出聯儲局內部分歧 [6][7]，講緊乜？即係連委員會自己都拗緊，而家條減息路徑仲信唔信得過。

VIX 格局確認晒：現貨收 17.08 [8]，近月期指 19.10 [8]，contango（期貨升水）11.83% [8]。呢個叫做健康嘅 contango——驚嘅情緒係喺曲線入面，唔係喺現貨——意思即係話今日嘅回吐純粹係調倉位，唔係恐慌性拋售。Put/call 比率 1.149 [8]，連同明日到期嘅 ATM 引伸波幅 9.34% [8]，反映有對沖需求但冇人投降。

商品市場照劇本走。原油期貨收 96.97，升 $1.89 [9]，USO 升 1.55% [2]，天然氣期貨升至 2.783（升 $0.053）[9]，UNG 升 2.39% [2]。黃金頂得住，GLD 收 431.56，升 0.14% [2]——結構性避險工具吸納晒美元資金流，連 UUP 都企穩 27.41 [2]。能源升、金升、長債跌：成本推動格局完整冇變。

為聽日做定準備：

周五朝早 8:30 NFP（非農就業數據） [10]：如果數字低過 10 萬，債市就要二揀一——係驚衰退定係驚通脹？最先睇 30 年期反應；如果鴿派數據之下仍然破 5.00%，即係期限溢價重新定價確認。
SPY 731.20 [2]：NFP 前嘅釘位。失守 728，720 缺口隨時補；重上 735 即係伊朗協議買盤回歸。
原油 $96.97 [9]：如果伊朗有任何利淡頭條被否決而衝破 $100，所有嘢都要重新定價；跌返 $93 之下，通脹交易就要 unwind。

隔夜要留意： 亞洲時段對 PIF 70 億美元美元債需求嘅反應 [11]——如果中東紙幣以窄息差成功定價，但日本 30 年國債繼續滲血，即係全球期限溢價嘅訊號喺美國現貨開市之前，已經滲返入美債。你話係咪咁㗎？

參考資料 [1] Bloomberg Markets, "US Stocks Fall From Record High as Market Awaits Iran's Reply," 2026-05-07. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-07/us-stock-futures-steady-as-us-awaits-iran-reply-earnings-unfold [2] Closing prices, 2026-05-07: SPY 731.20 (-0.36%), QQQ 694.87 (-0.13%), TLT 85.77 (-0.36%), USO +1.55%, UNG +2.39%, GLD 431.56 (+0.14%), UUP 27.41, VTIP 50.325 (-0.01%). [3] US Treasury yields, 2026-05-07: 2y 3.86%, 5y 4.044%, 10y 4.392%, 30y 4.969%, 13w 3.598%; 2s10s 0.49%, 3m10y 0.794%. [4] Bloomberg Economics, "Schnabel Says ECB Will Need to Hike If Energy Shock Broadens," 2026-05-07. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-07/schnabel-says-ecb-will-need-to-hike-if-energy-shock-broadens [5] Macro data: CPI YoY 3.32% (Mar), PPI YoY 6.03% (Mar), Core PCE 3.2% (Mar), Fed Funds 3.64% (Apr), initial claims 200k (week ending 2026-05-02), continuing claims 1.766M. [6] Bloomberg Economics, "Fed's Collins Agreed With FOMC Dissenters Over Statement," 2026-05-07. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-07/fed-s-collins-favored-changing-fomc-statement-with-dissenters [7] Bloomberg Economics, "Fed's Daly Says Statement Language Is Less Important Than Action," 2026-05-07. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-07/fed-s-daly-says-statement-language-is-less-important-than-action [8] Volatility close 2026-05-07: VIX spot 17.08, front future 19.10, contango 11.83%; put/call 1.149; ATM IV 9.34% (2026-05-08 expiry). [9] Futures close 2026-05-07: Crude $96.97 (+$1.89), Natgas $2.783 (+$0.053). [10] BLS calendar: Employment Situation release Friday 2026-05-08; CPI Tuesday 2026-05-12. [11] Bloomberg Markets, "Saudi Wealth Fund Sells First Dollar Bonds Since Iran War," 2026-05-07. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-07/saudi-wealth-fund-to-sell-first-dollar-bonds-since-iran-war

伊朗僵局封住歷史新高 長債繼續流血