科技股買盤蓋過熱辣辣 PPI 長債息照樣破頂

事實核查警告： 文章話「Fed funds rate at 3.64% 比實際 CPI 低大約 35 bps」，但數據顯示差距其實係 31 bps (3.95% − 3.64%)；文章又話 Fed funds「比 PPI 低足足三個百分點」，但數據顯示差距大約係 6.18 點 (9.82% − 3.64%)

科技股買盤蓋過熱辣辣 PPI 長債息照樣破頂

開市前嗰個睇法 —— 即係話 PPI 數據燒到燶，長債一定要否定減息呢個故事，就算股市點頂都好 —— 喺債市嗰邊應驗咗，但喺股市嗰邊就反咗轉。10 年期收 4.481% [1]，30 年期更加破到 5.047% [1]，創 2026 年新高；但 S&P 收 742.91，升 0.64% [1]，Nasdaq-100 收 715.50，升 1.17% [1]。重點就喺呢個分裂度：債息講一樣嘢，撈底嘅人講另一樣嘢，下個禮拜開拍賣會嘅時候，邊個講得啱？你估下點解？

今日最強嘅訊號，就係債市同股市嗰個分裂，引爆點就係通脹再次熱辣辣。PPI 按年 9.82% [2] —— 呢啲叫做成本推動型通脹，減息減極都唔會落，得個食字，要硬食 —— 對住 CPI 3.95% [2] 同 Core PCE 3.2% [2]。Fed funds rate 喺 3.64% [2]，比實際 CPI 仲要低，仲低過 PPI 一大截；你話呢啲算唔算緊縮政策呢？Collins 都再講多次，利率要「持續一段時間」按兵不動 [3]。Anthropic 傳出要 900 億美元估值集資 300 億 [4]，Cerebras IPO 定價 185 蚊 [5] —— 我話你聽，今日嘅邊際資金去咗邊？全部湧去 AI capex 紙仔嗰邊，唔係去買長債。

債市嗰邊讀得好清楚。30 年期 5.047% [1]、TLT 收 84.87 跌 0.14% [1]，呢個就係結構性重新定價，唔係技術性反彈。2s10s 喺 0.46% [1]，3m10y 喺 0.881% [1] —— 條 curve 由長端度斜起身，呢啲教科書都有寫，叫做 term premium 暴動，唔係話經濟突然好啲。Bloomberg 嗰個 frame 講得好啱：投資者連環見到通脹數據，紛紛沽政府債，搞到基準債息創 2026 年新高 [6]。5 年期 4.13% [1] 先係真正嘅金絲雀 —— 佢已經 price 緊基本上一次都唔減。

VIX contango 全日收 6.32% [1]，現貨價 17.87 [1]，前月 future 19.00 [1]。呢啲叫做教科書級嘅 risk-on contango —— 唔係 regime 轉變，係 regime 確認。但係 put/call ratio 去到 1.402 [1]，星期五到期嘅 ATM IV 喺 11.59% [1]，呢啲又話畀你聽：指數層面嘅對沖盤一層層咁鋪喺底下，雖然個別股票嘅 call option 仲推緊大市上。呢個 setup 就係 gap-fill 嗰一日嘅前奏。

商品就脫鈎咗。金價收 430.76，跌 0.5% [1]，Bloomberg 個 frame 話通脹更熱令減息機會率下降，所以金價受壓 [7] —— 但係喺 30 年期破 2026 年新高嘅情況之下，金價只係跌 0.5%，呢個唔係弱勢，係結構性買盤喺度食晒利率痛楚。原油 futures 喺 101.24，跌 0.94 美元 [1]，USO 收 141.90，跌 1.66% [1]，盤中令成本推動嘅渠道降溫咗少少，雖然 PPI 中長期已經確認咗呢個趨勢。天然氣 futures 喺 2.856，升 0.013 美元 [1]。

聽日點部署：

30 年期息率 (5.047%)：收市企穩 5.10% 以上，TLT 會被拉到 84 頭嗰邊，股票枱要 mark down 啲對 duration 敏感嘅 sleeve；反過嚟跌返落 5.00% 以下，撈底盤又會再出嚟。
SPY 742.91 / QQQ 715.50：星期五嘅 ATM IV 喺 11.59% [1]，SPY 暗示一日波幅大約 5.4 美元 —— 留意 738 個 put strike，呢個係必守位。
VIX contango 6.32%：如果攤平到 3% 而現貨升，呢個就係 regime 轉變嘅訊號；企穩 6% 以上，撈底反射動作就仲在。
金價 430.76：企穩 428 之上，確認嗰個結構性買盤可以食得起利率痛楚；跌穿就代表避險資金轉去做美金。

要留意：隔夜走勢： JGB 10 年期 2.345% [2] 對 Bund 2.905% [2] —— 東京時段任何一個跳升，拖埋 Bund 高，到美股現貨開市嗰陣都會傳到去美債嗰邊，到時呢個 AI 買盤頂唔頂得住？你話係咪咁㗎？

參考資料 [1] Closing data, 2026-05-13: yields (2y 3.91%, 5y 4.13%, 10y 4.481%, 30y 5.047%, 13w 3.60%), curves (2s10s 0.46%, 3m10y 0.881%), TLT 84.87 (-0.14%), SPY 742.91 (+0.64%), QQQ 715.50 (+1.17%), VIX spot 17.87, VIX front future 19.00, contango 6.32%, put/call 1.402, ATM IV 11.59% (exp 2026-05-15), GLD 430.76 (-0.5%), USO 141.90 (-1.66%), UNG 10.9812 (+0.65%), crude futures 101.24 (-$0.94), natgas futures 2.856 (+$0.013). [2] Macro/inflation: CPI YoY 3.95% (2026-04-01), PPI YoY 9.82% (2026-04-01), Core PCE YoY 3.2% (2026-03-01), Fed funds 3.64% (2026-04-01), initial claims 200k (2026-05-02), Bund 10y 2.9052%, JGB 10y 2.345%, Gilt 10y 4.7007%. [3] Fed's Collins Favors Holding Rates Steady for 'Some Time' — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-13/fed-s-collins-favors-holding-rates-steady-for-some-time [4] Anthropic in Talks to Raise $30 Billion at a $900 Billion Valuation — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-05-13/anthropic-in-talks-to-raise-30-billion-in-financing-video [5] AI Chipmaker Cerebras Expects to Price Its IPO at $185 Per Share — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-13/ai-chipmaker-cerebras-said-poised-to-price-ipo-at-185-per-share [6] Bond Investors Flee as Inflation Worry Sends Yields to 2026 High — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-13/us-10-year-treasury-yield-hits-highest-since-july-after-ppi-data [7] Gold Slips as US Inflation Resurgence Raises Odds of Fed Hike — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-12/gold-holds-decline-as-us-inflation-jump-lowers-rate-cut-odds