舊經濟創新高，AI 交易卻爆煲

開市前個睇法——成個 AI 板塊已經升到無譜，係個市場唯一最脆弱嘅一環——今次真係應驗到不能再清楚。成日嘅走勢一開二：Dow 創歷史新高，但 Nasdaq 100 就跌，皆因 Broadcom 個業績指引一出，就將 AI 交易嘅氣全部抽乾 [1][7]。S&P 500 收 755.43，只係升 0.16% [2]——個平平無奇嘅數字，其實掩蓋緊一場好暴力嘅板塊輪動。QQQ 跌 0.92%，收 737.40 [3]。當指數表面咁平靜、內裡卻翻天覆地嘅時候,個頭條數字反而係成個畫面入面最無用嘅嘢。你話係咪咁㗎?

今次主旋律係輪動,唔係斬倉。啲資金由芯片股走去「舊經濟」嘅周期股,嗰啲受惠於經濟仲撐得住嘅板塊 [1][7]——正正就係呢個分析框架成日講嘅:泡沫嘅脆弱性,係用分化、而唔係用一鋪崩盤嘅形式表現出嚟。最明顯嘅信號,仍然係嗰個「業績勝預期、股價照跌」嘅形態:當一間公司明明印證咗 AI 資本開支個故事,但啲人照沽佢,即係邊際買家已經買到攰、買唔郁喇。Put/call ratio 升到 1.245 [4],亦都證實咗,就算指數企得穩,對沖嘅需求其實已經多咗。

債市個訊號就靜,但靜得唔係咁安樂。10 年期收 4.477%,30 年期收 4.978% [5],TLT 基本上無郁,升 0.12% 收 85.41 [6]。2s10s 息差企喺 +0.41% [7],3m10y 就 +0.857% [8]——條曲線正斜,但對個結構性問題就半點幫助都無:PPI 按年狂升 9.82%,而 CPI 得 3.95%、核心 PCE 得 3.29% [9],fed funds 就喺 3.63% [10]。我話你聽,呢個係成本推動型嘅通脹輸送管,即係話無論聽日個就業數字點,市場想等減息嘅心,都只係發緊白日夢。首次申領失業救濟升到 225,000,係二月以嚟最高 [11],畀咗啲彈藥淡定派去叫減息——但勞工市場走弱,加埋生產者通脹黐住唔郁,呢個就係滯脹陷阱,絕對唔係綠燈。

VIX 嘅期貨溢價,係確認咗個格局,而唔係改變咗個格局。VIX 現貨收 15.40,對住前月期貨 17.15——即係 11.36% 嘅 contango [12]。條向上斜嘅期限結構話畀你知:期權市場而家定緊「眼前自滿」嘅價,但就肯掏錢去買「將來嘅保險」——即係慢性放血嘅格局,唔係恐慌。聽日就到期,一日 ATM 引伸波幅得 8.27% [13],相對於日曆上嘅事件風險嚟講,隔夜 gamma 其實平到笑。

商品市場就一刀切開咗個避險嘅問題。黃金升 0.83% 收 411.27(GLD)[14],就算喺股市打和嘅一日都照升,繼續坐穩佢「首選結構性買盤」個位。能源就行返轉頭:USO 跌 3.24% 收 136.30 [15],原油期貨跌到 92.82,跌咗 0.22 美元 [16],皆因美伊停火談判有啲樂觀情緒——不過呢個進展,喺真主黨拒絕停火之後就卡咗住 [17]。天然氣就大幅背馳,UNG 升 3.5% [18]。能源跌、黃金升咁樣一開二,即係話今日嘅 risk-off,係恐懼股票估值,而唔係一場全面嘅宏觀驚慌。你估下點解市場會咁揀?

部署聽日:

SPY(755.43):星期五嘅 NFP 就係個二元催化劑。個數字太熱,就會壓住 4.477% 嘅 10 年期同埋長存續期嘅 QQQ;個數字太弱,就會餵肥減息嗰套講法,但同時又會翻起滯脹嘅憂慮。要睇住個輪動嘅闊度,撐唔撐得住個指數企喺 752 之上。
VIX 期限結構:11.36% 嘅 contango [12],如果喺 NFP 之後塌向 backwardation(逆價差),咁就係信號——慢性放血,已經變成啲快咗好多嘅嘢喇。

**要留意:隔夜走勢:**亞洲芯片股同新興市場股,會唔會跟住 Broadcom 個失望業績一齊插 [19]——如果美國未開市之前,新興市場已經跌深咗,咁今次嘅輪動就會升級做全面去風險,到時 Dow 個歷史新高,都護唔住成個大市。

參考資料 [1] Bloomberg, "Nasdaq 100 Declines, Dow Jones Hits Record as AI Trade Falters" — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-04/nasdaq-100-futures-drop-as-broadcom-forecast-spooks-traders [2] Closing data: SPY 755.43, +0.16% (2026-06-04) [3] Closing data: QQQ 737.40, -0.92% (2026-06-04) [4] Closing data: put/call ratio 1.245 [5] Closing data: 10Y yield 4.477%, 30Y yield 4.978% (2026-06-04) [6] Closing data: TLT 85.41, +0.12% (2026-06-04) [7] Bloomberg, "Dow Average Hits Peak as Old-School Stocks Beat AI: Markets Wrap" — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-03/asian-stocks-set-to-fall-on-fresh-us-iran-clashes-markets-wrap; 2s10s curve +0.41% (2026-06-03) [8] Closing data: 3m10y curve +0.857% (2026-06-04) [9] Closing data: PPI 9.82% YoY, CPI 3.95% YoY, core PCE 3.29% YoY (2026-04-01) [10] Closing data: fed funds rate 3.63% (2026-05-01) [11] Bloomberg, "US Jobless Claims Rose in Holiday Week to Most Since February" — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-04/us-jobless-claims-rose-to-225-000-in-holiday-week [12] Closing data: VIX spot 15.40, front future 17.15, contango 11.36% (2026-06-04) [13] Closing data: ATM IV 8.27%, expiry 2026-06-05 [14] Closing data: GLD 411.27, +0.83% (2026-06-04) [15] Closing data: USO 136.30, -3.24% (2026-06-04) [16] Closing data: crude futures 92.82, -$0.22 (2026-06-04); Bloomberg, "Oil Steadies After First Drop This Week on Peace Talk Optimism" — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-04/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-june-5 [17] Bloomberg, "US-Iran Talks Progress Stalls After Hezbollah Rejects Truce" — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-04/no-sign-of-progress-in-us-iran-talks-as-hezbollah-rejects-truce [18] Closing data: UNG 12.12, +3.5% (2026-06-04) [19] Bloomberg, "Emerging-Market Stocks Sink as Broadcom Miss Revives AI Concerns" — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-04/emerging-market-stocks-fall-as-broadcom-miss-disrupts-ai-trade