AI 氣袋撞正 5 厘長債，齊齊等非農

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AI 氣袋撞正 5 厘長債，齊齊等非農

隔夜情況。 隔夜最大隻嘅力量，係 AI 板塊俾人逼倉斬纜：Broadcom 開出個咁弱嘅展望，一棍打停咗成個升浪，仲拖埋 Nasdaq 100 落水，連新興市場嘅科技股都跟住中招 [1][2]。我話你聽，呢樣嘢就係典型嘅周期末段訊號——間公司明明盈利贏咗預期，隻股照樣插水，咁即係話之前買嘅係個價，唔係買盈利,你話係咪咁㗎？大市個盤面已經開始裂開：QQQ 預示 -0.58%，但 SPY 就守住 +0.28% [3][4],呢種闊度上嘅背馳，正正夾埋有報道話巨型科技股嘅集中度,焗到主動型基金經理透唔到氣 [5]。原油就崩咗,USO -3.46%,近月期油跌 3.35 美元至 92.67 [6],而聯儲局又啱啱好出份研究,話而家油價衝擊冇咗七十年代咁傷 [7]——時機真係夾得妙。黃金就做返佢結構性避險嘅本份,升 0.84% 至 411 [8]。

主導主題。 而家係兩個格局喺度對撼。AI 通縮嗰股力對大市係利淡,但債市先至係更大條嘅結構性麻煩:30 年期企喺 4.971 厘,貼到 5 厘條線,10 年期就 4.465 厘 [9][10]。PPI 按年走到 9.82%,核心 PCE 又 3.29% [11][12],呢個係成本推動型嘅格局,長債淨係靠「驚經濟差」係升唔起㗎——條孳息曲線而家陡斜(2s10s +0.41%),但係斜得唔係好理由 [13]。所以本人嘅傾向係:脆弱,但未到投降。

盤中傾向。 VIX 期限結構處於健康嘅 +10.6% 正價差(現貨 15.56 對近月期貨 17.21)[14][15],呢樣嘢唔係淡好友恐慌嗰種訊號——正價差即係話期權市場仲喺度定價自滿,所以大市盤中傾向係中性偏建設性,除非有關鍵價位俾人破到。但有反作用力要計:認沽認購比率高企喺 1.121 [16],初領失業金又升到 22.5 萬,係二月以嚟最高 [17],即係話對沖盤已經落咗。埋單計數:QQQ 見強就沽,SPY 嘅支持要尊重,身手要靈活。

今日關鍵價位:

SPY:756.37 [3]——好淡分界線;若果乾淨俐落跌穿,就玩完「背馳照守」呢個論點。
QQQ:739.92 [4]——最弱嗰環;呢度失守,就會拖 SPY 一齊跌落 AI 個氣袋度。
10 年息:4.50% 呢個水位(現 4.465% [9])——若果衝穿,加埋 30 年企喺 5 厘之上 [10],咁無論科技股點都好,息口都會變成大市嘅逆風。
原油:92.67 [6]——一彈起,成本推動型通脹條尾巴就返晒嚟。

要留意: 真正嘅二元事件,係非農就業數據,6 月 5 日星期五,美東時間 8:30 [calendar]。今朝出咗初領失業金之後,今日個日程表其實吉嘅,但係 2026-06-05 到期嘅平價引伸波幅得 9.32% [18],擺明係市場低估咗呢一鋪嘅波動——今日提早佈局,先至係嗰種不對稱嘅交易。下一個通脹數據,6 月 10 日星期三嘅 CPI [calendar],就係驗證格局嘅關鍵。

會扭轉傾向嘅劇本。 若果 30 年期喺盤中決定性咁升穿 5.00 厘 [10]——尤其係遇着任何關稅或者供應嘅消息 [19]——咁本人嘅傾向就會由「沽科技、守大市」整個倒轉,變成徹底 risk-off。點解?因為 5 厘嘅長債,會抽走成個股票市場個估值底,唔淨止係 AI 嗰邊咁簡單,你估下後果有幾大?

參考資料 [1] Nasdaq 100 Slides as Broadcom's Weak Forecast Halts AI Rally — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-04/nasdaq-100-futures-drop-as-broadcom-forecast-spooks-traders [2] Emerging-Market Stocks Fall as Broadcom Miss Revives AI Concerns — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-04/emerging-market-stocks-fall-as-broadcom-miss-disrupts-ai-trade [3] SPY pre-market 756.37, +0.28% (2026-06-04) [4] QQQ pre-market 739.9211, -0.58% (2026-06-04) [5] Active Stock Funds Reel as Big Tech's Grip on Market Strengthens — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-04/active-stock-funds-reel-as-big-tech-s-grip-on-market-strengthens [6] USO -3.46%; crude futures 92.67, -$3.35 (2026-06-04) [7] Oil Shocks Have Smaller Impact on US Than 1970s, Fed Study Finds — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-04/oil-shocks-have-smaller-impact-on-us-than-1970s-fed-study-finds [8] GLD 411.295, +0.84% (2026-06-04) [9] 10Y yield 4.465% (2026-06-04) [10] 30Y yield 4.971% (2026-06-04) [11] PPI 9.82% YoY (2026-04-01) [12] Core PCE 3.29% YoY (2026-04-01) [13] 2s10s curve +0.41% (2026-06-03) [14] VIX spot 15.56 / front future 17.21 (2026-06-04) [15] VIX contango +10.6% (2026-06-04) [16] Put/call ratio 1.121 (2026-06-04) [17] US Jobless Claims Rose in Holiday Week to 225,000, Most Since February — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-04/us-jobless-claims-rose-to-225-000-in-holiday-week [18] ATM IV 9.32%, expiry 2026-06-05 (2026-06-04) [19] Greer Says 'Deal's a Deal' for Those With Capped US Tariffs — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-04/greer-says-deal-s-a-deal-for-economies-with-capped-us-tariffs