就業數據爆燈，聯儲局押注由減息變加息

隔夜背景。 股市破紀錄嘅連升勢頭撞咗板，皆因五月非農就業報告強過預期，將成條孳息曲線前端重新定價 [1][2]。美國請人數字拋離晒所有經濟學家嘅估計，失業率就守住喺 4.3% [2]。幾個鐘之內，個 31 萬億美元嘅國債市場已經完全押注聯儲局年底前會加息——唔係減息，係加息。你話幾諷刺呢? [1] 債股齊跌 [3]：10 年期企喺 4.534% [4]，30 年期就刺穿咗 5.014% [5],呢個係結構上好關鍵嘅水位。TLT 開市前跌 -0.56% [6]。美元就因為呢份數據而轉強 [7],廣義 DXY 去到 118.88 [8]。最值得留意嘅係,呢次避險資金竟然冇流入黃金——GLD 跌 -1.74% [9],原油亦跌到 $91.49 [10],就算英國而家因為伊朗僵局,推算油價可以一路企喺 $100 直到 2028 年 [11]。你估下點解避險都唔買金?

主導主題。 呢個係成本推動型通脹,撞正勞動市場硬淨。PPI 按年 9.82% [12]、核心 PCE 3.29% [13],兩樣都遠遠高過 3.63% 嘅聯邦基金利率 [14]——即係話真實政策利率根本未夠緊,但上游價格就已經喺度嗌救命。德州達拉斯聯儲局有官員而家公開示警,話通脹壓力重新點着火 [15]。我話你聽:當數據逼到市場放棄減息呢個劇本,反過來押注加息,長存續期嘅債券同埋估值貴到飛起嘅股票,就會一次過冧晒兩條結構性支柱。臨收市加速嘅 AI 板塊撤資 [16],其實就係同一個存續期重新定價,喺股市嘅倒影——QQQ 跌 1.3%,跑輸緊 SPY 嘅 -0.63%,帶住佢一齊插 [17]。

關鍵水位。 10 年期 4.534% 係今日嘅支點 [4];一旦持續破上 4.60%,所有長存續期嘅交易都要捱壓。30 年期守得住喺 5.05% 之下,長債嘅平倉先至有秩序。股市必守位係 SPY 748——跌穿咗,連升嘅好友底下就吉一大舊空氣 [16]。

盤中傾向。 VIX 現貨 15.98 [18],企喺前月期貨 17.33 之下一大截 [19],即係 +8.45% 嘅正價差 [20]。喺呢個分析框架之下,陡峭嘅正價差唔係一個造淡訊號——佢反而提醒你唔好硬追跌,寧願喺恐慌嗰陣反手去淡化佢。但真正洩底嘅,係 put/call 比率高達 1.476 [21],對住一個低到得 16.8 嘅 IV rank [22]:即係喺平到笑嘅引伸波幅之下,有人喺度瘋狂買對沖。所以本人傾向係一個有節制嘅反彈/均值回歸,除非孳息再向上突破;但你要尊重一個事實——平嘅保險,有人喺度狼死咁掃緊貨。係咁㗎。

今日公佈數據。 五月就業報告喺 美東時間 6 月 5 日(星期五)朝早 8:30 出咗 [2]——已經係今場戲嘅催化劑;只要報告正文或者工資細項有任何上修,加息嘅定價就會走得更遠。下一個體制測試,就係 6 月 10 日(星期三)嘅 CPI;只要個數企得住喺對上一次 3.95% 按年之上 [23],就確認咗成本推動嘅論點,同埋「冇得減息」呢個現實。

會扭轉今日大局嘅劇本。 一個有公信力嘅美伊降溫頭條,可以即刻冧咗油價嘅風險溢價 [11],拉低通脹預期,等聯儲局加息嘅定價得以平倉——單單呢一條走勢,就足以將今日由債市帶頭嘅拋售,變成一場存續期同股市嘅鬆一口氣反彈,連帶將睇淡嘅傾向完全推翻。你話係咪一線之差啫?

今日關鍵水位:

10 年期孳息:4.534% [4] — 企穩之上 = 利淡長存續期/股市;重奪 4.45% = 利好反彈
30 年期孳息:5.014% [5] — 守住 5.05% 之下,長債平倉先有秩序
SPY:748 — 必守位;失守即喺連升好友底下吉出下行空間 [16][17]
VIX:前月期貨 17.33 [19] — 抽穿佢,先確認係真正避險

要留意: 五月就業報告,已經喺 美東時間 6 月 5 日朝早 8:30 出咗 [2] — 工資/上修細項一旦向上,就拉長加息定價;跟住就係 6 月 10 日(星期三)嘅 CPI,只要按年數字高過 3.95% [23],就坐實咗成本推動型體制。

參考資料 [1] Traders Fully Bet on Fed Rate Hike This Year After Jobs Data — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-05/traders-fully-price-in-fed-rate-hike-this-year-after-jobs-data [2] US Hiring Surged in May, Boosting Bets on Fed Rate Hike (172k jobs, unemployment 4.3%, 8:30 AM ET June 5) — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-05/us-adds-172-000-jobs-in-may-beating-all-economists-estimates [3] Stocks and Bonds Fall as Jobs Fuel Fed-Hike Bets — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-04/asian-stocks-poised-to-edge-lower-oil-steadies-markets-wrap [4] yield_10y: 4.534% [2026-06-05] [5] yield_30y: 5.014% [2026-06-05] [6] tlt_change: -0.56% [2026-06-05] [7] Dollar Gains After Hot Jobs Data as Traders Price In Rate Hikes — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-05/dollar-gains-after-hot-jobs-data-as-traders-price-in-rate-hikes [8] dxy_broad: 118.8783 [2026-05-29] [9] gld_change: -1.74% [2026-06-05] [10] crude_futures: 91.49 [2026-06-05] [11] UK Sees Risk of $100 Oil Until 2028 in Worsening Iran Outlook — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-05/uk-sees-risk-of-100-oil-until-2028-in-worsening-iran-outlook [12] ppi_yoy: 9.82 [2026-04-01] [13] core_pce_yoy: 3.29 [2026-04-01] [14] fed_funds_rate: 3.63 [2026-05-01] [15] Fed's Logan Finds More Inflation Drivers in West Texas — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-05/fed-s-logan-finds-more-inflation-drivers-in-west-texas [16] S&P 500's Record Win Streak in Danger as AI Selloff Continues — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-05/s-p-500-s-record-win-streak-in-danger-as-ai-selloff-continues [17] spy_change: -0.63%, qqq_change: -1.3% [2026-06-05] [18] vix_spot: 15.98 [2026-06-05] [19] vix_front_future: 17.33 [2026-06-05] [20] vix_contango_pct: 8.45% [2026-06-05] [21] put_call_ratio: 1.476 [22] iv_rank: 16.8 [23] cpi_yoy: 3.95 [2026-04-01]