就業數據爆燈引爆「乜都沽」大冚加息預期重新定價

今日收市出現好罕見嘅情況——乜嘢資產都一齊冚沽，所有開市前話「減息就快到」嘅故事，今日俾市場一刀斬到一頸血。五月非農新增 172,000 份工，超晒所有預期，失業率仲穩守 4.3% [1]。你話勞動市場崩緊？唔係咁㗎——根本係再加速緊。市場點反應?直頭索性將 2026 年聯儲局加息計埋落去，而唔係減息 [2]。呢個分析框架講咗幾個月——通脹咁熱,減息根本結構上做唔到;今日張單一出,市場終於認同。睇睇數字:PPI 按年 9.82% [3]、CPI 3.95% [3]、核心 PCE 3.29% [3],對住得 3.63% 嘅聯邦基金利率 [3],你話實質政策仲緊唔緊?根本鬆過鬆緊帶。就業再加速,等於減息最後一個藉口都冇埋。

今日最重要嘅訊號,係相關性向下崩潰:股、債、金、能源,通通一齊跌。SPY 收 734.11,跌 3.04% [4];QQQ 直情冧 5.33% 跌到 701.13 [4],AI 股帶頭跳水,因為孳息率彈高 [5]。我話你聽:當股同國債一齊俾人沽,呢個唔係驚經濟差,而係折現率重新定價——啲槓桿最重、年期最長嘅資產(即係啲大型科技股)流血流得最甘。

債市嗰邊都印證緊呢樣嘢。10 年期收 4.536% [6],30 年期摸到 4.999% [6],TLT 跌 0.43% 到 85.13 [6]。2 年期企喺 4.0% [6],2s10s 息差仲有 +0.42% [6]——條孳息曲線喺長端帶領下「熊式」陡峭化。即係話,市場喺度要求更多期限溢價去補通脹風險,正正就係嗰種成本推動嘅動力,就算經濟放緩都照逼啲利率向上。市場上仲剩返一把孤獨嘅聲音叫減息 [7],但你睇下啲拍賣數同條曲線,佢哋一致投緊另一邊嘅票。你估下邊邊會贏?

VIX 結構亦翻晒去壓力狀態。現貨 VIX 收 21.51 [8],而近月期貨得 19.45 [8]——contango 讀數係 −9.58% [8],即係倒掛(backwardation):近期恐慌已經貴過遠期預期。呢個係市場格局確認,唔係雜訊咁簡單。Put/call ratio 喺 1.152 [9],亦印證咗收市前啲人擺緊防守陣式。

商品市場就提供咗今日最緊要嘅線索:避險買盤斷咗纜。黃金將成個 2026 年嘅升幅一筆勾銷 [10],GLD 跌 3.63% 到 396.36 [4]。當黃金喺鷹派定價下俾人沽,而唔係接到避險走資盤,呢樣就確認咗成個跌勢係由流動性主導——實質利率向上,打金打得比恐慌托金更狠。原油期貨跌 2.79 美元到 90.25 [11](USO −2.68% [4]),天然氣跌 0.123 到 3.213 [11](UNG −3.96% [4])。能源同其他嘢一齊跌,暫時就抽走咗成本推動嘅對沖,但 PPI 都近 10% 喎,呢種喘氣空間你話有幾穩陣?

部署聽日:

SPY:734.11 [4] 係新嘅樞紐位;守唔住 730 就會打開一個跌返落之前突破位嘅缺口。要睇實大型科技股嘅領袖角色——QQQ 一係企穩,一係就繼續冧落去。
10 年期孳息:4.536% [6] 係條線。一過 4.60% 就會再壓股市;30 年期喺 4.999% [6],5.00% 就成個心理關口,實要睇。
黃金/GLD:396.36 [4]——彈得返就代表避險買盤重臨;繼續弱就證實係被逼平倉。

**要留意:隔夜全球債市傳染。**呢場鷹派定價已經全球化——加拿大自己就業數一爆,佢嘅國債一樣插水 [12]——只要 JGB 或者德國債(Bund 10 年 2.9963% [13])跟住沽,再隔夜滲入美國國債,就足以喺現貨開市前推美國孳息率穿 4.60%,為 6 月 10 號 CPI 之前舖好第二浪跌勢。你話係咪好戲在後頭?

參考資料 [1] US Hiring Surged in May, Boosting Bets on Fed Rate Hike — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-05/us-adds-172-000-jobs-in-may-beating-all-economists-estimates [2] US Bonds Slide as Strong Jobs Data Fuels Bets on 2026 Fed Hike — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-05/traders-fully-price-in-fed-rate-hike-this-year-after-jobs-data [3] Today's closing macro/inflation data (PPI, CPI, core PCE YoY; fed funds rate), 20260605 [4] Today's closing equity/commodity data (SPY, QQQ, GLD, USO, UNG), 20260605 [5] Nasdaq 100 Sinks 5% in AI-Led Rout as Yields Climb — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-04/asian-stocks-poised-to-edge-lower-oil-steadies-markets-wrap [6] Today's closing bond data (2Y/10Y/30Y yields, 2s10s, TLT), 20260605 [7] Citigroup Economists Maintain Lonely Call for Fed Rate Cuts — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-05/citigroup-economists-maintain-lonely-call-for-fed-rate-cuts [8] Today's VIX data (spot, front future, contango %), 20260605 [9] Today's options signals (put/call ratio), 20260605 [10] Gold Erases 2026 Gains as Jobs Report Fuels Fed Rate-Hike Bets — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-04/gold-steadies-as-uncertainty-surrounds-progress-in-us-iran-talks [11] Today's commodity futures data (crude, natural gas), 20260605 [12] Canada Bonds Plunge After Country Adds Most Jobs Since 2024 — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-05/canada-employment-up-87-800-jobless-rate-falls-to-6-6 [13] Today's global 10Y bond yields (Germany), 20260401

就業數據爆燈 引爆「乜都沽」大冚 加息預期重新定價