晶片狂升掩護住一個鷹派債市,Backwardation 未散

開市前嘅睇法——就業數據夠硬淨、加上伊朗推高油價,呢啲嘢正在為加息押注上膛——喺債市度應驗咗,但喺股市度就只係應驗咗一半。表面睇,股票收市見紅(升):SPY 收 739.07,僅僅升 0.21% [1];QQQ 就做曬重活,收 715.88,勁升 1.53% [2],一班執平貨嘅趁週末科技股插水之後[3],搞起一場 AI 交易復活騷。但你睇返市寬就明晒——納指同大盤之間差成 1.3 個百分點,即係話呢場係窄幅、半導體帶頭嘅反彈,根本唔係乜嘢 risk-on 日。升嘅地方,正正就係泡沫住嗰度,而唔係全面嘅信心。

當日最大嘅訊號,就係一邊廂晶片股升到飛起、另一邊廂債市卻喺度定價相反嘅嘢。呢個分析框架引述 Citadel Securities 警告,聯儲局可能「好快」就要被迫加息,去遏制收緊嘅金融狀況[4];Schwab 嘅策略員亦都附和話,喺就業市場硬淨、物價又黐住唔郁嘅情況下,加息嘅門檻正在降低[5]。數據邊站?企硬鷹派嗰邊:PPI 按年 9.82% [6]、CPI 3.95% [7],兩個都遠遠拋離 3.63% 嘅聯邦基金利率[8]——呢啲係由能源同關稅推上嚟嘅成本推動型通脹,即使經濟轉弱都照樣要收緊嗰種。減息?唔好諗,張餐牌冇呢味嘢。

債市嘅讀數證實咗。10 年期收 4.552% [9],30 年期企穩 5% 之上,收 5.024% [10],TLT 跌 0.51% 至 84.63 [11]。兩年期孳息要等到伊朗以色列停火、油價買盤鬆一鬆之後,先至由 15 個月高位回吐少少[12],但條曲線就硬係企硬咁斜——2s10s 喺 0.38% [13]、3m10y 喺 0.924% [14]——呢個係熊市趨陡(bear-steepener),即係話長債嗰頭要嘅係期限溢價,根本冇喺度定價乜嘢寬鬆。收市嗰刻講得好白:債市唔信你股票呢場反彈。

波動率呢個格局,先至係最值得尊重嘅線索。VIX 現貨收 18.89,對住近月期貨 18.66——contango 為 -1.22% [15],即係話條曲線仍然處於 backwardation,近月價錢高過遠月。你話呢個係乾淨利落嘅 risk-on 升市個樣咩?唔係咁㗎。呢個係個市場一邊睇住晶片股扯火、一邊仲喺度俾溢價買近期保險。Put/call 喺 1.055 [16]、IV rank 喺 29.5 [17],一齊印證緊呢個係對沖咗嘅倉位,而唔係投降式撲入好倉。

商品嗰邊就守住個關係。原油期貨收 91.42,升 0.88 點[18],USO 升 1.83% 至 135.45 [19]——能源通脹呢條水喉,持續餵緊個鷹派債市,即使停火封住個尖頂都係咁。黃金,呢個結構性嘅避險天堂,微升 0.25% 至 GLD 397.22 [20],喺國債被沽嘅時候靜雞雞有買盤——又係嗰套見慣嘅嘢,避險需求由債市度轉走。天然氣就係個例外,UNG 跌 2.57% [21]。

入到聽日,就好似一條壓緊嘅彈簧,等緊星期三嘅 CPI。BofA 已經開口叫客戶獲利離場,話危險訊號越嚟越多[22]。你估下佢做乜要咁講?

部署聽日:

10 年期孳息:4.552% [9] 就係條線。一旦升穿 4.60%,就會壓住 QQQ,亦都證實咗債市對今日晶片升市投咗反對票。
VIX 期限結構:contango 喺 -1.22% [15]——如果入到 CPI backwardation 仲深,即係啲對沖買啱咗,而股票呢場反彈就係俾你 fade 嘅貨。
SPY:739 [1] 要守得住;一旦呢度失守、QQQ 又帶頭插,就係訊號話你知:窄幅升市玩完。

要留意:隔夜——亞洲同歐洲開市嘅 JGB 同 Bund 孳息。如果 10 年期 JGB(2.515%)[23] 或者 Bund(2.996%)[24] 跳高,全球孳息傳染就會喺 CPI 出爐之前,將美國 10 年期拉穿 4.60%,重新定價加息嘅機率。你話係咪好睇㗎?

參考資料 [1] SPY close 739.07, +0.21% (20260608 data) [2] QQQ close 715.88, +1.53% (20260608 data) [3] Chip Stocks Rally in AI Trade Revival After Plunge — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-07/us-stock-futures-drop-after-tech-selloff-oil-up-markets-wrap [4] Citadel Securities Sees Risk of Fed Forced to Raise Rates Soon — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-08/citadel-securities-sees-risk-of-fed-forced-to-raise-rates-soon [5] Fed Faces Rising Rate Hike Expectations, Schwab Center's Martin Says — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-08/fed-seen-with-case-to-hike-right-now-as-bar-to-act-gets-lower [6] PPI YoY 9.82% (as of 2026-04-01) [7] CPI YoY 3.95% (as of 2026-04-01) [8] Fed funds rate 3.63% (as of 2026-05-01) [9] 10Y yield 4.552% (20260608) [10] 30Y yield 5.024% (20260608) [11] TLT close 84.63, -0.51% (20260608) [12] Treasuries Pare Drop in Oil-Driven Move Tied to Iran War — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-08/treasuries-drop-as-jobs-data-iran-tensions-fuel-rate-hike-bets [13] 2s10s curve 0.38% (as of 2026-06-05) [14] 3m10y curve 0.924% (20260608) [15] VIX spot 18.89, front future 18.66, contango -1.22% (20260608) [16] Put/call ratio 1.055 (20260608) [17] IV rank 29.5 (20260608) [18] Crude futures 91.42, +0.88 points (20260608) [19] USO close 135.45, +1.83% (20260608) [20] GLD close 397.22, +0.25% (20260608) [21] UNG close 11.37, -2.57% (20260608) [22] BofA Warns It's Time to 'Take Profits' as Red Flags Multiply — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-08/bofa-warns-it-s-time-to-take-profits-as-red-flags-multiply [23] 10Y JGB yield 2.515% (as of 2026-04-01) [24] 10Y Bund yield 2.9963% (as of 2026-04-01)