沽股、沽金、債息企硬——一張清倉嘅成交單

開市之前個睇法——30年債息逼近5%，加上CPI數據就嚟出爐，任你點反彈都好友難為——結果唔單止應驗，仲應驗得多。今日收市,個市由頭跌到尾,全線避險:SPY收734.56,跌0.63% [1];QQQ仲衰,收705.32,插1.50% [2]。科技股跑輸,呢個先係最值得留意嘅訊號。Put/call比率1.107 [3],IV rank都仲算溫和,得36.4 [4]——即係話,呢個係明日通脹數據之前嘅有秩序派貨,唔係恐慌性拋售,但派貨就係派貨,走唔甩。

今日最搶眼嘅訊號,係股同金一齊沽。GLD收388.95,跌2.09% [5]——而且係喺股市跌嘅日子表現最差,呢個就打破咗呢個分析框架最睇重嘅避險本能。當你嘅指定對沖工具,同佢應該對沖嗰隻資產一齊沽,咁就唔係資金轉倉,而係清倉——啲做槓桿嘅戶口,趕住喺CPI出爐之前套現。30年債息收5.011% [6],企穩喺個心理關口之上,等於抽走咗平時可以托住股市嗰股買盤。你話係咪咁㗎?

不過債市嘅讀法,就冇長債個數字咁簡單。TLT升0.71%,收85.22 [7],10年債息收4.528% [8]——即係話中段(belly)收到少少避險買盤,但30年就依然釘死喺5%以上。2s10s孳息曲線企喺+0.4% [9],3m10y就+0.893% [10]——依然正數,依然喺結構性陡斜緊。呢個就係典型嘅熊市陡斜(bear-steepener):前段畀3.63%嘅聯邦基金利率錨住 [11],而長段就要為住9.82%嘅PPI [12]同3.95%嘅CPI [13]討回期限溢價。我話你聽,對住呢條曲線,聽日嘅CPI先係唯一要緊嘅嘢。

VIX就確認咗個格局,而唔係扭轉佢。現貨收19.87 [14],對住前月期貨19.25 [15]——contango讀數係 −3.12% [16],即係倒掛(backwardation)。前月期貨竟然低過現貨,即係市場寧願畀貴啲買即時保險,都唔買遠期保險:呢個係事件風險嘅結構,正正就係一張CPI前嘅成交單應該印出嚟嘅樣。52週區間由13.47去到31.05 [17],現貨仲喺20以下,講恐慌就言之尚早——但條倒掛嘅期限結構就話畀你聽,啲做對沖嘅人已經醒咗。

商品就發出兩個唔同嘅訊號。USO喺現貨時段收市跌1.96%,報132.50 [18],但原油期貨就結算升咗0.95點,報89.15 [19],收市後因為美國再度空襲伊朗而再彈高 [20]。嗰個盤後買盤就係今晚嘅未知數——一個能源衝擊疊埋喺9.82%嘅PPI上面,正正就係呢個分析框架眼中,聯儲局想減息都減唔到嘅成本推動(cost-push)情景。

部署聽日:

SPY:734就係生死線。CPI熱過市場預期,730整數關就係下一個考驗;數據涼,740就會重返視線。
30年債息:留意5.01% [6]。收返落5%以下,股市鬆一口氣;一旦CPI爆數推上5.10%,所有嘢都要重新定價。
GLD:388 [5]一定要守得住。再跌多日,連埋股市一齊跌,就確認係被迫去槓桿,而唔係單一日嘅意外。

要留意(隔夜): 原油盤後對伊朗空襲嘅反應 [20];仲有下星期日本央行預期加息之前,JGB有冇任何郁動 [21]——日圓融資一旦重新定價,會同時打擊套息交易同美國長債嘅需求。你估下到時會點?

參考資料 [1] SPY close 734.5646, −0.63% (2026-06-09) [2] QQQ close 705.3201, −1.50% (2026-06-09) [3] Put/call ratio 1.107 [4] IV rank 36.4 [5] GLD close 388.95, −2.09% (2026-06-09) [6] 30Y yield 5.011% (2026-06-09) [7] TLT close 85.22, +0.71% (2026-06-09) [8] 10Y yield 4.528% (2026-06-09) [9] 2s10s curve +0.4% (2026-06-09) [10] 3m10y curve +0.893% (2026-06-09) [11] Fed funds rate 3.63% (2026-05-01) [12] PPI YoY 9.82% (2026-04-01) [13] CPI YoY 3.95% (2026-04-01) [14] VIX spot 19.87 (2026-06-09) [15] VIX front future 19.25 (2026-06-09) [16] VIX contango −3.12% (2026-06-09) [17] VIX 52-week range 13.47–31.05 [18] USO close 132.50, −1.96% (2026-06-09) [19] Crude futures 89.15, +$0.95 points (2026-06-09) [20] Oil Climbs After Fresh US Strikes on Iran Over Helicopter Attack, Bloomberg — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-09/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-june-10 [21] BOJ Watchers See Two Rate Hikes in 2026, Starting With Next Week, Bloomberg — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-09/boj-watchers-see-two-rate-hikes-in-2026-starting-with-next-week