科技股照癲,石油嘅戰爭溢價就乾塘

1. 收市講起。 QQQ 升 1.17% 收 719.77 [1],SPY 就斯文得多,升 0.32% 收 747.82 [2] — 又係大型科技股一力托起成個市。你諗下,今日個市有一百個理由跌:美國同伊朗連續第二日互相空襲,德黑蘭仲向波斯灣嘅美國盟友報復 [3],咁股市點答你?撈底買半導體。你話係咪咁㗎?開市前如果有人話「重燃戰火實跌市」,今日就俾市場狠狠打面 — 而呢一巴,講嘅係倉位,唔係和平。

2. 最大訊號。 AI 資本開支呢部機器,直頭大過一場真槍實彈嘅戰爭。Micron 話記憶體需求勁,加碼美國投資去到 2,500 億美元 [4];Apollo 嗰單 350 億美元 AI 晶片信貸交易 — 史上最大嘅私人信貸交易 — 開始掛牌買賣 [5]。我話你聽,第二單先至係重點,但冇乜人理:終端客戶盤數都未睇得清,就已經證券化、派晒落信貸市場度。週期尾段嘅集中風險,就係咁樣由股東手上,靜靜雞轉移到俾債主孭。

3. 債市。 條長債就係唔肯陪股市開派對。10 年期收 4.563% [6],30 年期企硬喺 5 厘心理關口之上,收 5.075% [7],2 年 10 年息差 +35 點子(0.35 個百分點)[8]。TLT 微跌 0.09% 至 84.285 [9]。PPI 按年狂飆 13.08% [10],CPI 得 4.27% [11] — 條通脹輸送管嘅落差,債市睇到一清二楚,聯儲局扮睇唔到啫。咁你話,長債憑咩升?PepsiCo 業績走數,自己都認係通脹壓力累事 [12] — 呢個就係管道壓力去到貨架嘅企業實證。

4. 波動率格局。 VIX 成個結構收市明顯 contango:現貨 16.71 [13],近月期貨 17.90 [14],溢價 7.12% [15]。即係平靜格局 — roll-down 呢股順風,繼續益緊沽波動率嗰班人。但你留意到入面有個矛盾未?IV rank 得 18.7 [16],put/call 比率就高企 1.279 [17]。波動率咁平,有人靜靜雞掃認沽期權買保險,期限結構偏偏話天下太平。你估下點解?聰明錢口講唔驚,隻手就好誠實 — 佢哋根本唔信呢個市。

5. 商品同黃金。 避險關係反轉晒,好有意思。打咗第二日,原油期貨反而跌 0.53 美元至 72.99 美元 [18],USO 跌 1.52% 至 110.51 [19] — 市場直接沽走星期三先至炒起嗰浸戰爭溢價 [20]。黃金就唔係咁:GLD 升 1.05% 至 378.40 [21],炒家計緊波斯灣局勢升級同利率路徑條數 [22]。記住呢句:金鍾意不確定性,油炒供應。卡塔爾因為霍爾木茲海峽油輪遇襲,暫停 LNG 擴產 [23],天然氣期貨照樣跌 0.085 美元至 3.127 [24] — 能源市場價入咗「局勢降溫」,但新聞標題完全唔係咁講。一隻油輪沉咗,成盤數即刻重寫,係咁㗎。

聽日部署:

原油期貨(72.99 美元 [18]): 隔夜重上 75 美元中間水平,即係波斯灣風險溢價返晒嚟,科技股呢浸升市就要接受考驗;再插穿 72 美元,就確認市場當場戰爭冇到。
30 年期債息(5.075% [7]): 債券拍賣一推,息口逼近 5.15% 嘅話,長久期科技倉直接受壓;跌返落 5 厘以下,QQQ 升市就有更多空間。
VIX contango(7.12% [15]): 壓縮到 4% 以下,就係平靜格局開始裂嘅第一個訊號;星期二 CPI [25] 公佈前扁平化埋去零嘅話,唔使問,即刻減磅。

要留意:隔夜市況 — 波斯灣新聞流同亞洲時段油市。美股瞓緊覺嘅時候,一單針對航運或者能源設施嘅襲擊令 Brent 重新定價 — 呢個就係嗰個 1.279 put/call [17] 靜靜雞買緊保險嘅劇本。其次,SK Hynix 美國上市定價高過韓國收市價 [26],會話你知 AI 呢浸買盤延唔延續得多一日。

參考資料 [1] QQQ close 719.77, +1.17% (2026-07-09) [2] SPY close 747.82, +0.32% (2026-07-09) [3] Bloomberg: "US, Iran Trade Airstrikes as Fears Grow of a Return to War" — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-09/us-iran-trade-attacks-for-second-day-testing-fragile-ceasefire [4] Bloomberg: "Micron Boosts US Spending to $250 Billion Amid Memory Demand" — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-09/micron-boosts-us-spending-to-250-billion-amid-memory-demand [5] Bloomberg: "Apollo's $35 Billion AI Chip Credit Deal Is Set to Begin Trading" — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-09/apollo-s-35-billion-ai-chip-credit-deal-is-set-to-begin-trading [6] 10-year Treasury yield 4.563% (2026-07-09) [7] 30-year Treasury yield 5.075% (2026-07-09) [8] 2s10s yield curve +35bp (2026-07-08) [9] TLT 84.285, -0.09% (2026-07-09) [10] PPI YoY 13.08% (as of 2026-05-01) [11] CPI YoY 4.27% (as of 2026-05-01) [12] Bloomberg: "PepsiCo Cites Inflationary Pressures for Missing Estimates" — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-07-09/pepsico-cites-inflation-pressures-for-missing-estimates-video [13] VIX spot 16.71 (2026-07-09) [14] VIX front-month future 17.90 (2026-07-09) [15] VIX contango 7.12% (2026-07-09) [16] IV rank 18.7 (52-week VIX range 13.47–31.05) [17] Equity put/call ratio 1.279 (2026-07-09) [18] Crude futures 72.99, -0.53 dollars (2026-07-09) [19] USO 110.51, -1.52% (2026-07-09) [20] Bloomberg: "Oil Steadies After Rallying on Renewed US-Iran Hostilities" — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-08/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-july-9 [21] GLD 378.40, +1.05% (2026-07-09) [22] Bloomberg: "Gold Rebounds as Traders Assess Iran Strikes, Interest-Rate Path" — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-08/gold-holds-decline-as-us-strikes-on-iran-magnify-inflation-risks [23] Bloomberg: "Qatar Pauses Push to Ramp Up LNG After Hormuz Tanker Attack" — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-09/qatar-pauses-push-to-ramp-up-lng-after-hormuz-tanker-attack [24] Natural gas futures 3.127, -0.085 dollars (2026-07-09); UNG -3.02% [25] CPI release scheduled Tuesday, July 14, 2026 [26] Bloomberg: "SK Hynix Said to Guide US Offering Price 3.1% Above Korea Close" — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-09/sk-hynix-said-to-guide-us-offering-price-3-1-above-korea-close