科技股拆晒台，避險資產竟然無人接火

今日收市，「脆弱論」係應驗咗，但個機制同你睇戰爭大標題諗嘅完全掉轉。S&P 個代理收 750.0，跌 0.64% [1]；Nasdaq 個代理就跌到 705.1，插 1.76% [2]——呢個係教科書式嘅「集中度拆倉」，由半導體帶頭冧，唔係全面 risk-off。TSMC 出咗業績，又再撩起個疑問：AI 燒咁多資本開支，個消費鏈末端嗰個「客」到底喺邊？根本無人講得清 [3][4]。仲有 SpaceX 上市後直接插穿招股價 [5],同一個訊息押韻——市場而家係喺度重新定價 AI trade 嘅終值,唔係定價經濟。呢個分析框架一路都當呢條係主斷層線,而今日,得佢一條係真係有信心咁郁。

最搶眼嘅訊號,係「乜嘢被沽」同「乜嘢無被沽」之間嘅背馳。Growth-at-any-price 嗰批捱打;避險板塊呢?就無人入貨。股票跌、國債企定——呢種不對稱,就係個 tell。你話係咪咁㗎?

債市呢邊仲加強咗呢個講法。30 年長債收 5.098% [6],10 年收 4.569% [7],2s10s 息差 +41bp [8],TLT 更加係文風不動,收 84.24,零變幅 [9]。兩份溫和嘅通脹數據,搞到利率期權嗰班友紛紛撤走加息注碼 [10],但係條孳息曲線都幾乎無升過,長端仍然釘死喺 5% 之上——當個利率係由發債量同期限溢價、而唔係聯儲局話事嘅時候,個市就係會咁行。你留意個內部矛盾:PPI 按年跑到 10.11% [11],Kansas City 個官員又話通脹「太熱、超標超得太耐」[12],但個短端就偏偏定價相反嘅嘢。我話你聽:當股票冧、國債都唔肯升,佢就已經唔再係避風港喇。

波幅這邊亦都證實咗今日係有秩序,唔係恐慌。VIX 現貨收 16.73,對住 18.66 嘅近月期貨——11.54% 嘅 contango [13]。條期限結構向上斜,現貨仲遠低過期貨,IV rank 得 18.5 [14],即係話呢輪沽貨係消化咗,唔係驚咗。Put/call 1.095 [15] 顯示有對沖需求,但完全無投降式拋售。呢個叫 regime continuity——一個泡沫喺度斯斯文文咁放氣,你估下點解?

商品市場就打爛咗個經典劇本。金價跌 2.03% 到 364.8 [16],就算美伊再有新一輪空襲上晒板——因為升級反而燃返聯儲加息注,資金湧入美元,唔係湧入黃金 [17][18]。DXY 企 120.50 [19],先至係今日真正嘅避風港。油就控制得住:美國石油代理跌 1.3% 到 119.80 [20],原油期貨守住 79.58 [21],場戰爭「重新接駁」咗個市場,但都無出現大家驚嘅供應爆煲 [22]。一個走去美元、走離黃金嘅避險買盤,講嘅係流動性同實質孳息嘅故仔,唔係恐懼嘅故仔。

部署聽日:

QQQ 705.1 [2]:睇下半導體會唔會穩返,定係 AI 資本開支嘅疑慮滲入埋大型科技股;跌穿 700 收市,就開埋下一浪。
30 年孳息 5.098% [6]:如果持續突破 5.15% 而股票又軟,就即係期限溢價、而唔係增長喺度話事——債務論即時上演。
金價 364.8 [16]:重上 372,就係個避險買盤由美元度轉返出嚟嘅訊號。

要留意(隔夜): DXY [19] 同亞洲時段美元對任何伊朗新升級嘅走勢——如果美元再抽上、黃金仲跌,就會坐實個「反避險」格局,並且喺美股開市前壓住新興市場貨幣 [23]。

參考資料 [1] SPY close 750.0, −0.64% (20260716) [2] QQQ close 705.1, −1.76% (20260716) [3] Tech Stocks Drag S&P 500 Lower as TSMC Results Spur AI Concerns — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-16/us-stock-futures-tumble-as-tsmc-s-results-revive-ai-concerns [4] Chip Stocks Get Hit as AI Spending Anxiety Builds — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-15/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates [5] SpaceX Post-Listing Collapse Threatens IPO Market's AI Euphoria — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-16/spacex-post-listing-collapse-threatens-ipo-market-s-ai-euphoria [6] 30Y yield 5.098% (20260716) [7] 10Y yield 4.569% (20260716) [8] 2s10s curve +41bp (20260716) [9] TLT 84.24, 0.0% (20260716) [10] Bond Traders Bail on Fed Hike Bets on Softer Inflation Path — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-16/bond-traders-bail-on-fed-hike-wagers-on-softer-inflation-outlook [11] PPI YoY 10.11% (2026-06-01) [12] Fed's Schmid Says Inflation Too Hot, Above Target Too Long — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-16/fed-s-schmid-says-inflation-is-too-hot-above-target-too-long [13] VIX spot 16.73, front future 18.66, contango 11.54% (20260716) [14] IV rank 18.5 (20260716) [15] Put/call ratio 1.095 (20260716) [16] GLD 364.8, −2.03% (20260716) [17] Gold Falls as US-Iran Hostilities Rekindles Fed Hike Bets — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-15/gold-steadies-as-soft-inflation-war-risk-cloud-fed-rate-outlook [18] Emerging Currencies Fall as US, Iran Tensions Strengthen Dollar — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-16/emerging-stocks-slump-as-korea-curbs-fan-selloff-in-chip-giants [19] DXY broad 120.50 (2026-07-10) [20] USO 119.80, −1.3% (20260716) [21] Crude futures 79.58 (20260716) [22] How the Iran War Is Rewiring the Oil Market — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-16/how-the-iran-war-is-rewiring-the-oil-market [23] Emerging Currencies Fall as US, Iran Tensions Strengthen Dollar — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-16/emerging-stocks-slump-as-korea-curbs-fan-selloff-in-chip-giants