油价崩盘加上温和的 PCE，把盘面重新推高

我先说重点：昨晚最大的动作,就是能源把整个战争溢价全部吐了回去。布伦特原油抹平了战时所有涨幅,因为美伊和平协议有了进展,霍尔木兹海峡的运量开始爬升 [1],现在原油期货报 69.87,又跌了 0.47 [2]。你别小看这一次重新定价——它在宏观层面到处干活:油价回到战前水平,欧洲央行的加息预期都被砍下来了 [3],而且它把短期内最干净的通胀加速器从桌面上拿走了。国债走高,因为美联储最看重的那个指标读数温和,压住了对加息的押注——注意,这轮周期里风险是冲哪个方向的 [4]——10 年期收益率停在 4.384%,30 年期在 4.843% [5]。股市这边,Micron 给出爆表的指引之后,AI 交易提前把价格抬上去了 [6],SPY 报 737.71(+0.61%),QQQ 报 724.13(+1.9%) [7]。

进入这个交易日,主线就是一句话:正在通缩的油价,撞上依然滚烫的国内物价。你想想,核心 PCE 同比 3.41% [8],联邦基金利率才 3.63% [9]——实际政策利率勉强为正——而 PPI 高到 13.08% [10],这说明上游的压力,能源端的缓解根本还没传导到。2 年/10 年利差 +30 个基点 [11],3 个月/10 年利差 +70 个基点 [12],债券市场在定价什么?不是衰退。它定价的是一个被债务付息钉死的美联储,这个美联储没法在三年新高的通胀数据面前去宽松 [13]。美元是那个枢纽,DXY 广义指数报 120.40 [14]——这种强势给国债发行日历托了底,但也封住了黄金能跑多远;金价在 4000 美元附近企稳,GLD 报 368.39(+0.68%) [15]。

仓位上,认沽/认购比 1.014 [16],是均衡的——不是那种发出脆弱信号的、自满到创纪录新低的水平——IV 排名 25.1 [17],平值期权隐含波动率 12.5% [18],这就是说,在一个已知的催化剂面前,期权很便宜。就是这样。

日内的倾向是偏多的。VIX 现货 18.07,低于近月期货的 18.8,正向期限结构 +4.04% [19]——这是正常市况的信号,不是那种逼着 ETF 展期抛售的逆向结构。正向升水加上油价崩盘,这告诉你该在下方那些位置逢低买,而不是去做空强势。我告诉你,今天的风险根本不是波动率飙升;是涨过头、涨到力竭。

今日关键位:

SPY:737.71——守住这里,AI 主导的买盘就还在;一旦跌回 732 下方,跳空高开就作废了 [7]
10 年期收益率:4.384%——冲上 4.45% 以上会压估值;跌到 4.30% 以下就给长久期/AI 买盘添柴 [5]
原油:70.00——重新站上去,通胀交易就复活;站不上,就坐实了通缩这股顺风 [2]
VIX:18.07——一旦越过 18.8 的期货,期限结构和偏向就翻成防御 [19]

下周要盯住: 今天的 PCE / 个人收入与支出报告,周四 6 月 25 日,美东时间早 8:30。核心 PCE 已经提前漏出高读数,创三年新高,而且支出还在加速 [20];任何超过 3.5% 的上行意外,都会把加息恐惧勾回来,把这个偏多的倾向打破。真正能掀翻一切的剧本是这个:原油因为霍尔木兹的一条反转标题重新站上 72 美元——就这一下,通胀溢价回来了,收益率抬起来了,AI 的逼空式上涨,就变成防御性的板块轮动 [21]。你说是不是这样?

参考资料 [1] Brent Oil Erases Wartime Gains as Hormuz Reopening Boosts Supply — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-24/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-june-25 [2] Current data: crude_futures 69.87, change -0.47 (2026-06-25) [3] ECB Rate-Hike Forecasts Pared Back as Oil Regains Pre-War Level — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-25/ecb-rate-hike-forecasts-pared-back-as-oil-regains-pre-war-level [4] Treasuries Climb as Benign US Inflation Eases Bets on a Fed Hike — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-25/treasuries-climb-as-benign-us-inflation-eases-bets-on-a-fed-hike [5] Current data: yield_10y 4.384%, yield_30y 4.843% (2026-06-25) [6] Stocks Rise on AI Optimism and Solid Economic Data: Markets Wrap — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-24/us-stock-futures-surge-on-micron-s-strong-forecast-markets-wrap [7] Current data: spy_price 737.71 (+0.61%), qqq_price 724.13 (+1.9%) (2026-06-25) [8] Current data: core_pce_yoy 3.41 (2026-05-01) [9] Current data: fed_funds_rate 3.63 (2026-05-01) [10] Current data: ppi_yoy 13.08 (2026-05-01) [11] Current data: yield_curve_2_10 +30bp (2026-06-24) [12] Current data: yield_curve_3m_10y +70bp (2026-06-25) [13] US Consumer Spending Picks Up as Inflation Hits Three-Year High — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-25/us-inflation-climbs-to-three-year-high-spending-picks-up [14] Current data: dxy_broad 120.3958 (2026-06-18) [15] Gold Steadies Near $4,000 as Traders Weigh Interest-Rate Outlook — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-24/gold-steadies-near-4-000-as-stronger-dollar-rate-outlook-weigh; GLD 368.39 (+0.68%) [16] Current data: put_call_ratio 1.014 (2026-06-25) [17] Current data: iv_rank 25.1 (2026-06-25) [18] Current data: atm_iv_pct 12.5 (2026-06-25) [19] Current data: vix_spot 18.07, vix_front_future 18.8, vix_contango_pct 4.04% (2026-06-25) [20] US Consumer Spending Picks Up as Inflation Hits Three-Year High — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-25/us-inflation-climbs-to-three-year-high-spending-picks-up; PCE / Personal Income & Outlays, Thursday June 25, 2026 [21] Brent Oil Erases Wartime Gains as Hormuz Reopening Boosts Supply — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-24/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-june-25