油價崩跌加上溫和的 PCE，把盤面重新墊高

我先講重點：昨晚最關鍵的一件事，就是能源把整段戰爭溢價全部吐了回去。隨著美伊和平協議有進展、荷莫茲海峽（Strait of Hormuz）的流量重新放量，Brent 油價把戰時漲幅抹得一乾二淨 [1]，原油期貨現在來到 69.87，又跌了 0.47 [2]。你不要小看這一次的重新定價，它在整個總體面上都在做工：油價回到開戰前的水準，連 ECB 升息的預期都被往下修了 [3]，等於把眼前最直接的通膨加速器從桌上拿掉。我告訴你，這很重要。

債市這邊呢？因為聯準會最愛看的那個指標讀數溫和，市場對「升息」的押注就鬆了——你注意一下這個循環裡風險的方向 [4]——10 年期殖利率停在 4.384%，30 年期 4.843% [5]。股市則是早就站在 AI 這一邊往上墊，Micron 財測炸裂之後 [6]，SPY 來到 737.71（+0.61%），QQQ 724.13（+1.9%）[7]。

那進場前最主導的主題是什麼？就是「油價在去通膨」對上「國內物價還很燙」這兩股力量的對撞。核心 PCE 年增 3.41% [8]，但聯邦資金利率才 3.63% [9]——實質政策利率勉強為正而已——而 PPI 高達 13.08% [10]，這代表上游的壓力，能源那邊的舒緩根本還沒傳導進來。你想想看，2 年/10 年利差 +30bp [11]、3 個月/10 年利差 +70bp [12]，債市有在定價衰退嗎？沒有。它定價的是一個被債務利息綁住、沒辦法在三年新高的通膨數字面前放鬆的聯準會 [13]。而美元就是那個樞紐，DXY 廣義指數 120.40 [14]——這種強勢撐得起標售行情，但也壓住了黃金能跑多遠；金價在 4,000 美元附近站穩，GLD 368.39（+0.68%）[15]。

部位這塊，put/call 比 1.014 [16] 算是平衡——不是那種低到破紀錄、暗示市場脆弱的自滿水準——IV rank 25.1 [17]、ATM IV 12.5% [18]，意思就是面對一個大家都知道的催化劑，選擇權其實很便宜。

盤中我傾向偏多。VIX 現貨 18.07，低於近月期貨的 18.8，正價差 +4.04% [19]——這是正常市況的訊號，不是那種會逼 ETF 換倉殺盤的逆價差壓力。正價差加上油價崩跌，這套分析框架告訴你：往下面那些價位逢低買，比追空強勢還合理。今天的風險不是波動率爆衝，而是漲過頭、自己沒力。

今天的關鍵價位：

SPY：737.71 — 守住就能維持 AI 領軍的買盤；跌回 732 以下，這個跳空就破功了 [7]
10 年期殖利率：4.384% — 衝過 4.45% 會壓估值；跌破 4.30% 則替長天期／AI 買盤加油 [5]
原油：70.00 — 收回去就把通膨交易喚醒；站不上去就確認了去通膨的順風 [2]
VIX：18.07 — 漲過 18.8 的期貨價，正價差翻轉，偏向就轉守 [19]

下週要注意： 今天，6 月 25 日（週四）美東上午 8:30 的 PCE／個人收入與支出（Personal Income & Outlays）。核心 PCE 已經先洩了底，來到三年新高、消費還在加速 [20]；只要意外往上、超過 3.5%，升息的恐懼就會復活，把這套偏多的傾向打掉。真正會翻盤的劇本是這個：原油因為荷莫茲的某個頭條反轉、重新站上 72 美元——就這麼一動，通膨溢價回來、殖利率被拉高，AI 的軋空行情就會變成防禦性的資金輪動 [21]。你說是不是這樣？

參考資料 [1] Brent Oil Erases Wartime Gains as Hormuz Reopening Boosts Supply — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-24/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-june-25 [2] Current data: crude_futures 69.87, change -0.47 (2026-06-25) [3] ECB Rate-Hike Forecasts Pared Back as Oil Regains Pre-War Level — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-25/ecb-rate-hike-forecasts-pared-back-as-oil-regains-pre-war-level [4] Treasuries Climb as Benign US Inflation Eases Bets on a Fed Hike — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-25/treasuries-climb-as-benign-us-inflation-eases-bets-on-a-fed-hike [5] Current data: yield_10y 4.384%, yield_30y 4.843% (2026-06-25) [6] Stocks Rise on AI Optimism and Solid Economic Data: Markets Wrap — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-24/us-stock-futures-surge-on-micron-s-strong-forecast-markets-wrap [7] Current data: spy_price 737.71 (+0.61%), qqq_price 724.13 (+1.9%) (2026-06-25) [8] Current data: core_pce_yoy 3.41 (2026-05-01) [9] Current data: fed_funds_rate 3.63 (2026-05-01) [10] Current data: ppi_yoy 13.08 (2026-05-01) [11] Current data: yield_curve_2_10 +30bp (2026-06-24) [12] Current data: yield_curve_3m_10y +70bp (2026-06-25) [13] US Consumer Spending Picks Up as Inflation Hits Three-Year High — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-25/us-inflation-climbs-to-three-year-high-spending-picks-up [14] Current data: dxy_broad 120.3958 (2026-06-18) [15] Gold Steadies Near $4,000 as Traders Weigh Interest-Rate Outlook — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-24/gold-steadies-near-4-000-as-stronger-dollar-rate-outlook-weigh; GLD 368.39 (+0.68%) [16] Current data: put_call_ratio 1.014 (2026-06-25) [17] Current data: iv_rank 25.1 (2026-06-25) [18] Current data: atm_iv_pct 12.5 (2026-06-25) [19] Current data: vix_spot 18.07, vix_front_future 18.8, vix_contango_pct 4.04% (2026-06-25) [20] US Consumer Spending Picks Up as Inflation Hits Three-Year High — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-25/us-inflation-climbs-to-three-year-high-spending-picks-up; PCE / Personal Income & Outlays, Thursday June 25, 2026 [21] Brent Oil Erases Wartime Gains as Hormuz Reopening Boosts Supply — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-24/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-june-25