油價崩盤加上溫和 PCE，個市重新企穩向上

聽晚最大嘅戲碼，就係能源板塊將成個戰爭溢價一次過吐返出嚟。隨住美國同伊朗和談有進展 [1]，霍爾木茲海峽嘅供應重新暢通，Brent 原油將開戰以嚟嘅升幅全部抹清，crude futures 而家報 69.87，再跌多 0.47 [2]。你估呢一下重新定價影響細咩？影響遍地開花：油價跌返開戰前水平，連 ECB 加息預期都要收返 [3]，亦都將短期最直接嘅通脹催化劑一下子剷走。國債就升咗，因為聯儲局最睇重嗰個物價指標讀數溫和，市場對「加息」嘅押注減退——留意呢個周期嘅風險方向係加唔係減喎 [4]——10 年期企喺 4.384%，30 年期 4.843% [5]。股市方面,Micron 個展望勁到爆,AI 交易帶動股市提早企高 [6],SPY 報 737.71（+0.61%）,QQQ 報 724.13（+1.9%）[7]。

入市嗰陣最大嘅主題,就係跌緊嘅油價同依然滾燙嘅本土物價兩者相撞。Core PCE 按年企喺 3.41% [8],但 fed funds rate 得 3.63% [9]——實質政策利率僅僅微微為正啫——再睇 PPI 高達 13.08% [10],呢個就反映上游嘅壓力仲未受惠於能源回落。2s10s 曲線 +30bp [11],3m10y +70bp [12],債市冇喺度 price 緊衰退;佢 price 緊嘅,係一個畀債務利息綁死、根本唔可以喺三年高位嘅通脹讀數面前減息嘅聯儲局 [13]。美元就係嗰個樞紐,DXY broad 報 120.40 [14]——呢種強勢撐住成個發債日程,但同時封住金價可以升到幾遠;金價而家喺 $4,000 附近企穩,GLD 報 368.39（+0.68%）[15]。

講倉位,put/call ratio 喺 1.014 [16],算係平衡——唔係嗰種預示脆弱嘅自滿式歷史新低。IV rank 得 25.1 [17],ATM IV 12.5% [18],即係話喺一個已知催化劑前面,期權其實平嘅。

日內傾向係建設性嘅。VIX spot 18.07,「低過」18.8 嘅前月期貨,即係 contango +4.04% [19]——呢個係正常市況嘅訊號,唔係嗰種逼住 ETF 轉倉拋售嘅 backwardation 壓力。正 contango 加上油價崩盤,即係話應該喺下面嗰啲水平趁低買,而唔係去 fade 升勢。今日嘅風險唔係波幅突然抽高,係升到攰、升到斷氣。

今日關鍵水平：

SPY：737.71 —— 守得住就保住 AI 帶動嘅買盤;跌返 732 以下就抹走個 gap-up [7]
10Y yield：4.384% —— 升穿 4.45% 就壓住估值;跌穿 4.30% 就為長存續期/AI 買盤添柴 [5]
Crude：70.00 —— 重新企上就翻生通脹交易;企唔住就坐實咗 disinflation 嘅順風 [2]
VIX：18.07 —— 升穿 18.8 嘅期貨就會反轉 contango,傾向都會轉做防守 [19]

要留意： 今日,美東時間星期四 6 月 25 日朝早 8:30 出 PCE／個人收入同支出。Core PCE 已經偷步見頂、創三年新高,而開支仲喺度加速 [20];任何高過 3.5% 嘅意外上行,都會翻生加息恐慌,打爛個建設性傾向。會將一切反轉嘅劇本就係:Brent 因為霍爾木茲嘅消息倒轉、重新企上 $72——你話呢一下夠唔夠殺?單單呢一個動作就會將通脹溢價還原,推高孳息,將 AI 嘅升勢變做防守式輪動 [21]。

參考資料 [1] Brent Oil Erases Wartime Gains as Hormuz Reopening Boosts Supply — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-24/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-june-25 [2] Current data: crude_futures 69.87, change -0.47 (2026-06-25) [3] ECB Rate-Hike Forecasts Pared Back as Oil Regains Pre-War Level — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-25/ecb-rate-hike-forecasts-pared-back-as-oil-regains-pre-war-level [4] Treasuries Climb as Benign US Inflation Eases Bets on a Fed Hike — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-25/treasuries-climb-as-benign-us-inflation-eases-bets-on-a-fed-hike [5] Current data: yield_10y 4.384%, yield_30y 4.843% (2026-06-25) [6] Stocks Rise on AI Optimism and Solid Economic Data: Markets Wrap — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-24/us-stock-futures-surge-on-micron-s-strong-forecast-markets-wrap [7] Current data: spy_price 737.71 (+0.61%), qqq_price 724.13 (+1.9%) (2026-06-25) [8] Current data: core_pce_yoy 3.41 (2026-05-01) [9] Current data: fed_funds_rate 3.63 (2026-05-01) [10] Current data: ppi_yoy 13.08 (2026-05-01) [11] Current data: yield_curve_2_10 +30bp (2026-06-24) [12] Current data: yield_curve_3m_10y +70bp (2026-06-25) [13] US Consumer Spending Picks Up as Inflation Hits Three-Year High — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-25/us-inflation-climbs-to-three-year-high-spending-picks-up [14] Current data: dxy_broad 120.3958 (2026-06-18) [15] Gold Steadies Near $4,000 as Traders Weigh Interest-Rate Outlook — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-24/gold-steadies-near-4-000-as-stronger-dollar-rate-outlook-weigh; GLD 368.39 (+0.68%) [16] Current data: put_call_ratio 1.014 (2026-06-25) [17] Current data: iv_rank 25.1 (2026-06-25) [18] Current data: atm_iv_pct 12.5 (2026-06-25) [19] Current data: vix_spot 18.07, vix_front_future 18.8, vix_contango_pct 4.04% (2026-06-25) [20] US Consumer Spending Picks Up as Inflation Hits Three-Year High — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-25/us-inflation-climbs-to-three-year-high-spending-picks-up; PCE / Personal Income & Outlays, Thursday June 25, 2026 [21] Brent Oil Erases Wartime Gains as Hormuz Reopening Boosts Supply — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-24/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-june-25