油價破百美金，PCE 出爐前通脹盤數要重新計過

我話你聽，隔晚期油一嘢飆咗 $7.44 上到 $101.85 [1]，美國同伊朗嘅停火希望煙消雲散，兩邊互相指責對方違反停火協議 [2]。呢一個動作，今朝乜都唔使睇，全部圍住佢轉。金價繼續做避風港，升咗 $2.92 去到 $437.45 [3]；國債就全線被人沽——十年期推上 4.311% [4]，三十年期逼近個心理關口 5%，去到 4.909% [5]，TLT 再跌 $0.42 到 $86.50 [6]。債市講得好清楚：油價衝擊疊加本身已經黐笠笠嘅通脹，減息？結構性上冇可能。

今日最大風險係乜？就係成本推動型通脹撞正消費者已經攰嘅經濟。二月核心 PCE 按年印出 2.97% [7]——即係差唔多 3%——消費者使錢都幾乎冇點升，仲要係油價破百之前嘅事 [8]。IMF 隔晚出嚟講「呢次油價衝擊考驗緊一個冇乜財政緩衝嘅世界」[9]，呢句外交辭令翻譯返即係：各國政府冇錢幫市民頂住。波蘭按兵不動唔加息，話要睇清楚戰爭對通脹嘅影響先 [10]；ECB 就放風話如果通脹偏離目標就會出手 [11]。全球央行由「準備放水」轉做「防守姿態」。聯儲局一樣被困住——持續申領失業救濟金人數跌到兩年低位 [12]，你估下點解佢減唔到息？因為連衰退嘅藉口都俾人堵死咗，你點樣喺油價推高通脹嘅時候講減息呢？

認沽認購比率去到 3.818 [13]，呢個數字講緊嘅係機構有組織咁買保護，唔係恐慌式拋售。係喺已知催化劑前面有秩序咁對沖。到期日 ATM 引伸波幅得 14.41% [14]，油價升成咁，呢個數字低得有啲可疑喎。VIX 現貨 21.0 [15]，前月期貨 22.05 [16]，期貨溢價 5% [17]——正溢價代表期限結構未倒掛，歷史上嚟講偏向均值回歸多過繼續冧市。市場有壓力，但未去到失控。

股票入面最脆弱嘅板塊仍然係 AI 基建。CoreWeave 發垃圾債嚟融資同 Meta 嘅 210 億美金 AI 運算合約 [18][19]——喺戰爭推高信貸成本嘅環境下加槓桿，去支持啲未經大規模驗證回報嘅 AI 資本開支，你話係咪咁㗎？Nvidia 逼近技術突破位 [20]，但喺三十年期債息快要撂 5% [5] 嘅環境下，冇盈利嘅基建股想撐高估值？折現率不斷升，呢個逆風你食唔食得起？

今日關鍵位：

期油 (CL1)：$100——企穩喺上面就確認供應衝擊模式；跌穿就重新打開喘息嘅故事
三十年期債息：5.00%——一穿就觸發長久期組合同退休基金被迫沽貨
SPY：670——呢個整數位同認沽期權集中位重疊；失守就開 650 嘅門
金價 (GLD)：$440——突破就確認「黃金取代國債」嘅邏輯加速緊

要留意： 二月 PCE／個人收入及支出數據，美東時間 4 月 9 日朝早 8:30 公佈。核心 PCE 按月 0.4% 已經 price in 咗 [8]；如果印出嚟高過 0.4%，加埋油價破百，2026 年剩餘嘅減息預期可以全部收皮，三十年期好大機會穿 5%。

參考資料 [1] Crude futures: 101.85, change +7.44 (2026-04-09 data) [2] Bloomberg, "Stocks Halt Rally as Oil Tops $100 on Truce Doubts," 2026-04-08 — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-08/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates [3] GLD price: 437.45, change +2.92 (2026-04-09 data) [4] 10Y yield: 4.311 (2026-04-09 data) [5] 30Y yield: 4.909 (2026-04-09 data) [6] TLT price: 86.50, change -0.42 (2026-04-09 data) [7] Core PCE YoY: 2.97% (2026-02-01 data) [8] Bloomberg, "US Consumer Spending Barely Rose, Inflation Lingered Pre-War," 2026-04-09 — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-09/us-consumer-spending-barely-rose-as-inflation-lingered-pre-war [9] Bloomberg, "IMF Chief Says Oil Shock Tests a World With Little Fiscal Buffer," 2026-04-09 — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-09/imf-chief-says-oil-shock-tests-a-world-with-little-fiscal-buffer [10] Bloomberg, "Poland Keeps Rates on Hold to Gauge Iran War Impact on Inflation," 2026-04-09 — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-09/poland-keeps-rates-on-hold-to-gauge-iran-war-impact-on-inflation [11] Bloomberg, "Sleijpen Says ECB Will Act If Needed to Keep Inflation at Target," 2026-04-09 — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-09/sleijpen-says-ecb-will-act-if-needed-to-keep-inflation-at-target [12] Bloomberg, "US Recurring Jobless Claims Fall to Almost Two-Year Low," 2026-04-09 — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-09/us-recurring-jobless-claims-fall-to-lowest-in-almost-two-years [13] Put/call ratio: 3.818 (2026-04-09 data) [14] ATM IV: 14.41%, expiry 2026-04-10 (2026-04-09 data) [15] VIX spot: 21.0 (2026-04-09 data) [16] VIX front future: 22.05 (2026-04-09 data) [17] VIX contango: 5.0% (2026-04-09 data) [18] Bloomberg, "CoreWeave Tapping Junk Debt Market After Meta AI Computing Deal," 2026-04-09 — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-09/coreweave-tapping-junk-debt-market-after-meta-ai-computing-deal [19] Bloomberg, "CoreWeave Strikes $21 Billion AI Computing Deal With Meta," 2026-04-09 — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-04-09/coreweave-strikes-21-billion-ai-deal-with-meta-video [20] Bloomberg, "Nvidia Shares Near Level Where Technical Traders See a Breakout," 2026-04-09 — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-09/nvidia-shares-near-level-where-technical-traders-see-a-breakout