油價震一震蓋過業績，股市向PCE周跌落去

事實核查警告： 原文話原油$4.05嘅升幅係「+4.05%」，但$4.05相對前收市價$92.96，應該係+4.36%，唔係+4.05%（美元升幅數字啱，但百分比計錯咗，混淆咗點數同百分比）

油價震一震蓋過業績，股市向PCE周跌落去

我話你聽，今日收市點收法？一句講晒：地緣政治風險溢價壓晒其他嘢。SPY收707.95，跌0.46% [1]，QQQ收652.18，跌0.45% [2]，原油期貨就一嘢抽高$4.05至$97.01——即係4.05點、+4.05%嘅升幅——全因為伊朗又搞嘢 [3][4]。開市前已經講過油係關鍵變數，而家完全應驗：USO收135.55，升4.75% [5]，美元推上10日新高 [6]，呢個組合歷史上從來都係壓估值嘅，今日又再一次應驗，即使Intel同SAP科技股業績唔錯都頂唔住 [7][8]。

你估最值得留意嘅信號係乜？就係傳統避險劇本今日食白果。黃金完全唔似危機資產——GLD收430.77，跌1.03% [9]，就算中東新聞越嚟越熱、美元又抽高 [6]，佢都照跌。呢樣嘢話你知乜嘢？今日邊際買盤唔係驚慌性儲備分散，而係美元融資嘅補倉盤。當DXY broad去到118.08 [10]、UUP去到27.53 [11]食到地緣政治買盤，以美元計價嘅黃金就暫時失寵，就算結構性邏輯（黃金作為首要避險資產、佔全球銀行儲備30%）一路都冇變。究竟係一日美元擠壓定係輪動開始？要留意。

債市就發出一個矛盾但好講得通嘅訊息。10年債收4.323% [12]，30年收4.918% [13]，TLT跌0.1%收86.65 [14]——即係喺股票弱、油價震嘅一日，基本上係平盤。呢個就係重點：美國國債根本冇食到你預期嘅避險買盤。5年債3.952% [15]、2年債3.76% [16]，2-10年息差+0.51% [17]，3個月-10年息差+0.728% [18]。PPI按年仲跑6.03% [19]，CPI就3.32% [20]，長端點樣升得起？油價帶嚟嘅成本推動型通脹，正正強化咗一個事實：就算經濟放緩，減息喺結構上都做唔到。

VIX contango證實市場緊張但未崩。現貨VIX 19.31，前月期貨20.68，contango+7.09% [21]。斜率仲係正——冇倒掛、冇恐慌——但相對之前幾日已經明顯扁咗。Put/call去到1.429 [22]，聽日到期嘅ATM IV收11.63% [23]，對沖需求有升，但未見投降式拋售。呢個係「慢慢磨損式避險」嘅盤路，唔係崩盤前奏。

天然氣同原油走勢背道而馳，UNG跌4.02% [24]，期貨$2.734 [25]，呢樣證實今日嘅升幅係針對伊朗／荷姆茲海峽，唔係整個能源板塊嘅廣泛買盤。初請失業救濟214K [26]、續請1.821M [27]都仲係溫和——勞動市場暫時未出事。

佈局聽日：

SPY 707.95：705係入PCE周必守嘅樞紐位 [1]；一破就開住700整數磁力位，ATM IV定價11.63% [23]
原油97.01：$100係心理觸發位，一過就逼宏觀重新定價 [3]；如果跌返$94以下，今日整個股市跌幅全部回吐
10年債息4.323%：如果聽日股跌同時息升，咁就係basis trade壓力嘅訊號 [12]

要留意： 隔夜JGB 10年——而家2.345% [28]。東京時段一抽高就會滲入Bund（2.9052%）[29]，再傳去美國長端開市，令聽日嘅PCE周部署大幅複雜化。

參考資料 [1] SPY close 707.95, -0.46% (market data, 2026-04-23) [2] QQQ close 652.18, -0.45% (market data, 2026-04-23) [3] Crude futures 97.01, +$4.05 (market data, 2026-04-23) [4] Stocks Decline as Iran Jitters Spur Rally in Oil — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-22/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates [5] USO 135.55, +4.75% (market data, 2026-04-23) [6] Dollar Jumps to Highest in 10 Days as US-Iran Tensions Intensify — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-23/dollar-jumps-to-highest-in-10-days-as-us-iran-tensions-intensify [7] Intel Gives Strong AI-Fueled Outlook — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-23/intel-gives-strong-outlook-in-sign-of-payoff-from-ai-spending [8] SAP Reports Cloud Growth That Beats Estimates — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-23/sap-reports-cloud-growth-that-beats-estimates-in-ai-push [9] GLD 430.77, -1.03% (market data, 2026-04-23) [10] DXY broad 118.0795 (market data, 2026-04-17) [11] UUP 27.53 (market data, 2026-04-23) [12] US 10y yield 4.323% (market data, 2026-04-23) [13] US 30y yield 4.918% (market data, 2026-04-23) [14] TLT 86.65, -0.1% (market data, 2026-04-23) [15] US 5y yield 3.952% (market data, 2026-04-23) [16] US 2y yield 3.76% (market data, 2026-04-17) [17] 2s-10s curve +0.51% (market data, 2026-04-22) [18] 3m-10y curve +0.728% (market data, 2026-04-23) [19] PPI YoY 6.03% (FRED, 2026-03-01) [20] CPI YoY 3.32% (FRED, 2026-03-01) [21] VIX spot 19.31 / front future 20.68 / contango +7.09% (market data, 2026-04-23) [22] Put/call ratio 1.429 (options data, 2026-04-23) [23] ATM IV 11.63%, expiry 2026-04-24 (options data) [24] UNG 10.51, -4.02% (market data, 2026-04-23) [25] Natgas futures 2.734 (market data, 2026-04-23) [26] Initial claims 214,000 (DOL, 2026-04-18) [27] Continuing claims 1,821,000 (DOL, 2026-04-11) [28] Japan 10y yield 2.345% (market data, 2026-03-01) [29] Germany 10y yield 2.9052% (market data, 2026-03-01)