油價爆上重燃通脹恐慌，科技股散水，債市流血

事實核查警告： 文章話 WTI 期貨升「+3.51%」，$3.51 美元升幅收 $99.88，但 $3.51 升幅收 $99.88 嘅正確百分比應該係 ~3.64%（3.51/96.37），唔係 3.51%。美元數字啱，但百分比計法錯。

油價爆上重燃通脹恐慌，科技股散水，債市流血

收市嗰下，盤前嗰套睇法完全應驗咗：成本推動型通脹回朝坐正，股債市根本冇辦法消化 $100 油價同 Fed 仲喺度諗減息呢個矛盾。S&P 收 711.74，跌 0.48% [1]，Nasdaq 代理跌到 657.64，挫 0.99% [2]。但你話真正重要嘅係邊度？唔係指數價位，而係個盤面紋理 — 科技股龍頭話散就散，因為 OpenAI 增長憂慮報告爆出嚟 [3]，同一時間能源股就狂飆。呢種典型嘅後周期輪動，兩邊都拖累長存續期資產，避無可避。

當日主旋律就係原油。WTI 期貨收 $99.88，全日升 $3.51（+3.51%）[4]，USO 升 3.62% [5]，原因係美國同伊朗喺荷姆茲海峽嘅僵局又拖多一日 [6]。呢個就係成本推動型機制顯形：PPI 已經按年跑到 6.03% [7]，CPI 得 3.32% [8]，油價持續強勢只會擴闊個 gap，唔會收窄。呢個分析框架嘅核心論點 — 能源再通脹之下根本結構性冇得減息 — 今日做咗一場 real-time stress test，債市俾咗答案你睇。

國債如預期被沽。10 年期收 4.354%，30 年期收 4.944% [9][10]，Bloomberg 直接歸因於油價推動嘅通脹預期 [11]。TLT 勉強升 0.09% 收 86.355 [12]，但呢個數字遮蓋咗長端嘅結構性損傷。2s10s 曲線喺 +0.57% [13]，3m10y 喺 +0.764% [14] — 呢個 steepening 形態講緊係 term premium，唔係增長預期。2 年期 3.78% [15] 就係 tell：前端死都唔肯破低，因為 Fed funds rate 喺 3.64% [16]，已經低過黏性服務通脹應該擺嘅位置。你估下咁仲減得幾多？

VIX contango 守住個格局。VIX 現貨收 17.83，前月期貨 19.75，contango 10.77% [17]。我話你聽，呢個叫自滿，唔叫投降 — 個曲線形狀仲係「買跌就贏」嗰種，雖然 put/call ratio 已經爆到 1.221 [18]，反映對沖盤喺度買 put，但賣引伸波幅嗰啲人仲係喺前月度餵緊個盤。5 月 1 日到期嘅 ATM IV 得 15.54% [19]，證實恐慌仲未 price in。呢度就係最危險嗰個 middle zone：skew 度有夠多 fear 反映壓力，但 term structure 唔夠 fear 嚟 mark 個底。

黃金破咗 safe-haven 嗰套劇本。GLD 收 $422.00，跌 1.84% [20]，債又跌油又升嘅通脹日子，金都照跌 — Bloomberg 將呢個跌勢歸因於同樣推升油價嘅荷姆茲談判消息 [21]。本人話你聽：當金喺通脹日同債一齊跌，通常即係有人嘅槓桿好倉俾人 margin call 緊。美匯就硬淨，DXY 喺 118.73 [22]，UUP 喺 27.515 [23]，外資需求對國債嘅緩衝就咁冇咗。

部署聽日：

SPY 711.74 [1]：要望實 708 呢個 shelf — 一旦破，700 整數位就請等回測，而且 put/call 已經喺 1.22 [18]。
10Y yield 4.354% [9]：4.40% 就係條線。一旦升穿，股票估值就冇支撐；30Y 喺 4.944% [10]，差一個價位就見 5 字頭。
原油 $99.88 [4]：$102 觸發 breakevens 第二浪；跌穿 $97 就會抽走曲線嗰個 inflation shock bid。
VIX contango 10.77% [17]：如果 VIX 升穿 20 同時 contango 翻 backwardation（低過 5%），即係轉 regime。

要留意： 隔夜睇 JGB 10 年期對今日美債息抽升嘅反應 — Bund 喺 2.91%、Gilt 喺 4.70% [24][25] 就係條傳導帶。如果亞洲債市同情性跟住散水到星期四 PCE [26] 出之前，10Y 嗰條 4.40% 線可能數據未出已經破。係咁㗎？你話係咪咁㗎？

參考資料 [1] SPY close 711.74, -0.48% (TradeStation, 2026-04-28) [2] QQQ close 657.64, -0.99% (TradeStation, 2026-04-28) [3] Stocks Fall as Report on OpenAI Fuels Tech Jitters: Markets Wrap — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-27/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates [4] WTI crude futures close $99.88, +$3.51 (TradeStation, 2026-04-28) [5] USO close $139.60, +3.62% (TradeStation, 2026-04-28) [6] Oil Back Above $110 as World Awaits US Response to Iran Proposal — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-27/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-april-28 [7] PPI YoY 6.03% (FRED, 2026-03-01) [8] CPI YoY 3.32% (FRED, 2026-03-01) [9] US 10Y yield 4.354% (Tiingo, 2026-04-28) [10] US 30Y yield 4.944% (Tiingo, 2026-04-28) [11] Treasuries Fall as Rising Oil Prices Lift Inflation Expectations — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-28/us-treasuries-trade-rangebound-as-fed-officials-prepare-to-meet [12] TLT close $86.355, +0.09% (TradeStation, 2026-04-28) [13] 2s10s curve +0.57% (FRED, 2026-04-27) [14] 3m10y curve +0.764% (FRED, 2026-04-28) [15] US 2Y yield 3.78% (Tiingo, 2026-04-24) [16] Fed funds rate 3.64% (FRED, 2026-03-01) [17] VIX spot 17.83, front future 19.75, contango 10.77% (CBOE, 2026-04-28) [18] Put/call ratio 1.221 (CBOE, 2026-04-28) [19] ATM IV 15.54% for 2026-05-01 expiry [20] GLD close $422.00, -1.84% (TradeStation, 2026-04-28) [21] Gold Sinks as US and Iran's Deadlock on Hormuz Continues — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-27/gold-steadies-as-traders-weigh-diplomatic-push-to-end-iran-war [22] DXY broad 118.73 (FRED, 2026-04-24) [23] UUP close $27.515 (TradeStation, 2026-04-28) [24] German 10Y 2.9052% (FRED, 2026-03-01) [25] UK 10Y 4.7007% (FRED, 2026-03-01) [26] PCE / Personal Income & Outlays release scheduled Thursday April 30, 2026