油價爆升再點火加息預期，長債終於頂唔順

收市點睇？本人開門見山講你聽：宏觀劇本唔單止冇變，仲愈嚟愈清晰。能源成本推動嘅震盪，撞正一個結構性需求乾塘嘅國債市場，最後邊個埋單？長債囉。SPY 收 717.43，跌 0.45% [1]；QQQ 收 672.03，跌 0.31% [2]——表面睇好似冇乜事，但你估真正嘅戲肉喺邊？喺曲線長端嗰 60 個基點度。30 年期孳息率衝上 5.025% [3]，幾個月嚟最高，啲交易員已經擺明車馬重新計緊聯儲局下一步係加息而唔係減息嘅機會率 [4]。本人開市前嗰套劇本——油價站穩 $100 之上就會迫出個「利率向上、股票向下」嘅格局——今日完全應驗。

最大嘅訊號就係熊式陡斜化（bear-steepener）。10 年期收 4.446% [5]、30 年期收 5.025% [3]，但 2 年期淨係 3.78% [6]、13 周國庫券 3.59% [7]。2s/10s 利差 +51 個基點 [8]、3m/10y +85.6 個基點 [9]，呢啲數字話畀你聽：今次係期限溢價（term premium）嘅事，唔係市場驚經濟過熱。TLT 收 84.98，跌 0.74% [10]——長債俾人沽，係因為成本推動型通脹（PPI 按年 6.03% [11]、CPI 3.32% [12]）令 5% 孳息率睇落都嫌薄，而唔係經濟過熱。持續申領失業金人數 1,785,000 [13]，明顯話你聽勞動市場開始軟，咁就係呢個分析框架一直警告嗰種滯脹楔形（stagflationary wedge）。紐約聯儲一個官員仲喺度講利率「總有一日要落」[14]，撞正歐洲央行鷹派叫六月加息 [15]，連歐盟財金高官都直接用「滯脹震盪」呢四隻字 [16]——你話係咪好戲？

VIX 確認咗格局，但冇推到去新階段。現貨 VIX 收 18.31 [17]、前月期貨 20.0 [18]、Contango +9.23% [19]——仍然係正常 Contango，紙面上仲算係可以沽波幅嘅市，但 Put/Call 比率衝到 1.637 [20]，講緊持倉防守緊聽日。5 月 8 日到期嘅 ATM 引伸波幅 13.94% [21]，計緊由依家到非農前每日大約 0.9% 嘅波動——如果油價繼續抽，呢個價就抵買到飛起。

商品先係今日嘅引擎。原油期貨收 $104.98、升 $3.04 [22]，USO +3.05% [23]，天然氣期貨 $2.847、升 $0.067 [24]，UNG +2.24% [25]——荷姆茲海峽局勢嘅頭條 [26] 推晒呢一切。黃金今日就打破咗避險嘅相關性：GLD 收 414.32，跌 2.09% [27]。但呢個唔係格局轉變，係美匯走強嘅反應（DXY 廣義指數 118.73 [28]），加埋對住債市冧市嘅獲利回吐。結構性買盤仲喺度，唔使驚。

聽日佈局點睇：

30 年期孳息率：5.025% [3] 就係條線。如果收市企穩 5.10% 之上，就要小心基差交易（basis trade）拆倉，逼到股票要重新定價對存續期嘅敏感度。
SPY：717.43 [1] 啱啱企穩必守區，如果跳空跌穿 712，加埋 Put/Call 已經 1.637 [20]，好快會見 705。
原油：$104.98 [22]——如果隔晚荷姆茲頭條再推佢上 $108，又會再抽走長端 10 至 15 個基點。
周三財政部再融資公告 [29]：間接投標人嘅參與率就係風向標。

隔晚要留意： 日本 10 年期國債 2.345% [30]——東京開市如果衝穿 2.45%，會傳染德國公債（Bunds），逼美國 30 年期喺現貨開市前已經穿 5.05%。

參考資料 [1] SPY close 717.43, -0.45% (5/4/2026 data) [2] QQQ close 672.03, -0.31% (5/4/2026 data) [3] 30Y Treasury yield 5.025% (5/4/2026 data) [4] Bloomberg, "US 30-Year Yield Hits 5% as Oil Surge Fuels Bets on a Fed Hike" — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-04/treasuries-start-week-under-pressure-as-oil-prices-resume-climb [5] 10Y Treasury yield 4.446% (5/4/2026 data) [6] 2Y Treasury yield 3.78% (4/24/2026 data) [7] 13-week T-bill yield 3.59% (5/4/2026 data) [8] 2s/10s curve +0.51% (5/1/2026 data) [9] 3m/10y curve +0.856% (5/4/2026 data) [10] TLT close 84.98, -0.74% (5/4/2026 data) [11] PPI YoY 6.03% (3/1/2026 data) [12] CPI YoY 3.32% (3/1/2026 data) [13] Continuing claims 1,785,000 (4/18/2026 data) [14] Bloomberg, "Fed's Williams Says Rates Will Need to Be Lower 'At Some Point'" — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-04/fed-s-williams-says-rates-well-positioned-amid-war-uncertainty [15] Bloomberg, "ECB's Nagel Sees Case for Hike Without Marked Inflation Progress" — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-04/ecb-s-nagel-sees-case-for-hike-without-marked-inflation-progress [16] Bloomberg, "Europe Is Facing Stagflationary Shock, EU's Dombrovskis Says" — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-04/europe-is-facing-stagflationary-shock-eu-s-dombrovskis-says [17] VIX spot 18.31 (5/4/2026 data) [18] VIX front future 20.0 (5/4/2026 data) [19] VIX contango 9.23% (5/4/2026 data) [20] Put/call ratio 1.637 (5/4/2026 data) [21] ATM IV 13.94%, 5/8/2026 expiry [22] Crude futures $104.98, +$3.04 (5/4/2026 data) [23] USO +3.05% (5/4/2026 data) [24] Natgas futures $2.847, +$0.067 (5/4/2026 data) [25] UNG +2.24% (5/4/2026 data) [26] Bloomberg, "Stocks Fall, Oil Rises on Hormuz Tension Flare-Up: Markets Wrap" — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-03/us-futures-gain-oil-falls-on-signs-of-iran-talks-markets-wrap [27] GLD close 414.32, -2.09% (5/4/2026 data) [28] DXY broad 118.7294 (4/24/2026 data) [29] Bloomberg, "Treasury Market on Watch for Shift in Yellen-Era Debt Plan" — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-03/treasury-market-on-watch-for-shift-in-yellen-era-debt-playbook [30] Japan 10Y yield 2.345% (3/1/2026 data)