日圓干預餘震撞正伊朗和談行情

我話你聽，今晚張單真係好刺激，兩股力量幾乎同一時間殺埋嚟。日本財務省星期四燒咗大約 345 億美金去托日圓——係 2024 年 7 月以來第一次出手干預 [1]。同一時間，有報道話伊朗回應咗美國對中東戰爭框架嘅修訂，原油即刻插水，股指期貨再創新高 [2]。原油期貨而家報 $101.86，單日跌咗 $3.21 [3]，SPY 收 722.26 [4]，QQQ 報 671.54 [5]，呢條標普周線升浪，已經係 2024 年以嚟最長 [6]。德債日債隔夜都鬆咗少少，因為 G-7 啲官員開始諗緊：戰爭令通脹傳導，可能要加息 [7]。德國 10 年期 2.91% [8] 仲係全球曲線嘅錨，英國 10 年期報 4.70% [9]。

開市前最大主題係咩？係聯儲局結構性畀人綁住，動彈不得。Kashkari 同 Hammack 今朝公開解釋點解佢哋投反對票，話戰爭實質上改變咗利率前景，再暗示下一步係減息已經唔合適 [10]。ECB 嘅 Makhlouf 同一時間警告，通脹上行風險加劇 [11]。你諗下，CPI 按年仲係 3.32% [12]，PPI 報 6.03% [13]，核心 PCE 3.20% [14]，而聯邦基金利率 3.64% [15]——能源衝擊帶嚟嘅成本推動通脹，邊有空間畀曲線之前 price-in 嗰啲減息？10 年期 4.392% [16]、30 年期 4.979% [17] 就係反映呢個重新定價；2s10s 報 0.52% [18]，呢個 steepening 嘅方向係 term premium 故事，唔係衰退故事，你話係咪咁㗎？

VIX 現貨 16.76，前月期貨 19.4，contango +15.75% [19]——呢個係教科書式 long-volatility-of-volatility 訊號，但現貨個 tape 又散散哋。Contango 企硬咁正，結構上應該係喺阻力位 fade 升浪，而唔係追突破；沽波幅嗰班係收緊錢，但前月期貨溢價即係話：交易室一定喺度對沖緊啲嘢。Put/call 0.821 [20] 證實咗大隊喺伊朗和談個 headline 之下，齊齊偏好友。

GLD 報 422.35（跌 0.31%）[21] 係 tell——和談消息一出佢就跌，但 Tether 接近 200 億美金嘅金倉 [22]，加上各國央行儲備有 30% 配置黃金，結構性買盤仲係喺度。UUP 27.325 [23]、廣義 DXY 118.73 [24]，美元強勢繼續壓住外資對美債嘅需求。

今日關鍵位：

SPY：722.26——企穩之上好友贏，如果和談 headline 散水跌穿 718 就淡友贏
10Y 孳息：4.40%——升穿淡友贏（國債供應壓力重新嚟過），跌穿好友贏
原油：$100——跌穿確認和平已 price-in，企穩之上即係 fade
VIX：17.50——跌穿好友贏，日內標升上去就淡友贏

要留意： 今日冇一線美國數據出。下一個催化劑係 2026 年 5 月 8 日（星期五）嘅就業報告——NFP 超過 20 萬、AHE 按月超過 0.4%，剩低嗰啲減息預期即刻死晒。CPI 喺 2026 年 5 月 12 日（星期二）跟住出；按年印超過 3.4%，去通脹敘事就完全爆煲。

如果伊朗突然反口——德黑蘭拒絕美國嗰啲修訂——成個 setup 即刻調轉：原油彈返上 $108+、黃金重奪買盤、股市要交返個和平溢價出嚟，long-vol contango 嘅 trade 就賺到笑。

參考資料 [1] Bloomberg, "Japan Likely Spent About $34.5 Billion on Yen Intervention" — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-01/japan-likely-spent-34-5-billion-in-fx-intervention-to-boost-yen [2] Bloomberg, "US Stock Futures Gain, Oil Falls on Iran Peace Talks Report" — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-01/us-stock-futures-mixed-after-record-as-earnings-week-wraps-up [3] Crude futures $101.86, -$3.21 (2026-05-01 data) [4] SPY 722.26 (2026-05-01) [5] QQQ 671.54 (2026-05-01) [6] Bloomberg, "S&P 500 Is Set for Longest Weekly Rally Since 2024" — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-30/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates [7] Bloomberg, "War Forces G-7 Officials to Pencil in Possible Rate Hikes" — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-05-01/global-rates-latest-war-may-force-g-7-rate-hikes-in-june [8] German 10Y 2.9052% (2026-03-01) [9] UK 10Y 4.7007% (2026-03-01) [10] Bloomberg, "Fed's Kashkari and Hammack Say Rising Uncertainty Drove Dissents" — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-01/fed-s-kashkari-and-hammack-say-war-has-changed-rate-outlook [11] Bloomberg, "ECB's Makhlouf Says Upside Risks to Inflation Have Intensified" — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-01/ecb-s-makhlouf-says-upside-risks-to-inflation-have-intensified [12] CPI YoY 3.32% (2026-03-01) [13] PPI YoY 6.03% (2026-03-01) [14] Core PCE YoY 3.2% (2026-03-01) [15] Fed funds rate 3.64% (2026-03-01) [16] US 10Y 4.392% (2026-05-01) [17] US 30Y 4.979% (2026-05-01) [18] 2s10s 0.52% (2026-04-30) [19] VIX spot 16.76, front future 19.4, contango 15.75% (2026-05-01) [20] Put/call ratio 0.821 [21] GLD 422.345, -0.31% (2026-05-01) [22] Bloomberg, "Tether's Gold Hoard Nears $20 Billion as Buying Spree Continues" — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-01/tether-s-gold-hoard-nears-20-billion-as-buying-spree-continues [23] UUP 27.325 (2026-05-01) [24] DXY broad 118.7294 (2026-04-24)