伊朗停火樂觀情緒推動風險開市，但暗藏尾部風險

我話你聽，隔夜最大件事就係油價冧咗——美國同伊朗外交有進展，原油即刻插水。Crude跌咗$7.27，跌到$95.00 [1]，USO -7.21% [1]。但有趣嘅係，金價唔跌反升——GLD飆升+3.23%到$431.77 [1]。點解？通脹擔憂緩和令戰爭溢價消散，但結構性儲備需求繼續托住個價。你話係咪好玩？股市跟住升：S&P期貨顯示SPY開市近732.21，前一日升咗+1.17% [1]，QQQ報691.32（+1.42%）[1]，靠AMD爆燈嘅AI指引 [2] 同Nvidia入股Corning五億美金 [3] 撐住。新興市場仲創新高，都係靠呢條和平協議消息 [4]。但債市完全冇sing任，唔confirm啲：10年期企喺4.354%，30年期4.941% [1]——油價插水佢都唔肯跌，呢個就係玄機所在。

今日入市最大主題係咩？就係頭條利好同結構性通脹現實之間嘅分歧。PPI仲係按年6.03% [1]，CPI 3.32% [1]，core PCE 3.2% [1]——伊朗停火搞唔掂呢啲嘢。St. Louis Fed嘅Musalem隔夜講風險開始向通脹方向傾斜 [5]，波蘭啱啱維持利率，理由係伊朗能源衝擊係持續性嘅推動因素 [6]。成本推動型通脹根本唔care油價跌一日。30年期息率企喺4.94%以上，TLT喺風險偏好反轉嘅一日只係+0.77% [1]——呢個就係供應消化不良嘅信號，但股市完全當睇唔到。

VIX現價17.07，前月期貨19.15，contango +12.19% [1]——好斜，即係期限結構健康，傾向係做淡波幅／淡尾部風險嘅日內部署。Put/call比率1.202 [1]偏高，反映就算升市都仲有人喺度做對沖——呢個分歧通常都係慢慢磨上去解決，除非有債券拍賣尾數或者地緣政治頭條打破個局。ATM IV週五到期得10.83% [1]，考慮到兩日後就係NFP，呢個價真係平。

今日關鍵位：

SPY: 732.21 [1]——企穩之上，動能可追到738；跌穿728就會開gap填到724
10年期息率: 4.35% [1]——升穿4.40%就對股市淡好；跌穿4.30%就開綠燈買長債
GLD: 431.77 [1]——企穩428以上，避險買盤結構性繼續存在
Crude: $95.00 [1]——收低過$92就確認停火定價；反彈過$100通脹恐慌即刻翻炒
VIX: 17.07 [1]——升穿19就break咗contango做淡波幅嘅部署

**要留意：**美東早上8:30嘅初請失業金——上次數字189,000 [1]歷史上算好緊；如果出超過215k就會打破勞動敘事，影響週五嘅NFP（5月8日）[7]。CPI下星期二5月12日出 [7]——你做任何部署到週五，都要尊重呢個催化劑。你估下市場會點走？

**情境反轉：**如果伊朗談判中午前有頭條話爆煲，油價反彈過$100，GLD繼續飆升，30年期息率破5.00%——呢個組合會將今日嘅風險偏好變成即日反轉，SPY 728失守，VIX衝上21+。停火係唯一支撐緊股市估值嘅嘢；冇咗佢，通脹—息率—股市嘅疊加效應就會一齊崩。係咁㗎，唔好以為今日升就萬事大吉。

參考資料 [1] Pre-market data feed, 2026-05-06 (FRED, Tiingo, TradeStation) [2] AMD Soars as AI Demand Fuels Better-Than-Expected Sales Outlook — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-05/amd-gives-upbeat-forecast-after-ai-data-center-demand-surges [3] Nvidia Inks $500 Million Deal for Shares in Fiber Maker Corning — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-06/nvidia-buys-500-million-of-rights-for-stock-in-corning [4] Emerging Stocks Hit Record, Currencies Rise on Peace Deal Hopes — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-06/emerging-stocks-hit-record-high-currencies-gain-on-iran-signals [5] Fed's Musalem Sees Risks Shifting More Toward Inflation — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-05-06/fed-s-musalem-sees-risks-shifting-more-toward-inflation-video [6] Poland Holds Rates as Iran Energy Shock Stokes Inflation — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-06/poland-holds-rates-as-iran-energy-shock-stokes-inflation [7] Upcoming economic releases calendar (NFP May 8, CPI May 12)