油價畀荷姆茲海峽綁住，30年債息又試5%痛點

我話你聽，琴晚個盤好戲在後頭，兩條故仔線撞埋一齊。原油喺一輪波動之後企穩喺 $95.85 [1]，華府而家就喺度等緊德黑蘭點覆荷姆茲重開個提案 [2]；天然氣期貨即刻彈高近 2.1%，去到 $2.787 [1]；美股就由歷史高位回吐，地緣政治嗰種「博彩價值」一抽走，啲人即刻無胃口食風險 [3]。

但真正要睇嘅，係全球債息呢條線。美國 30 年債息企喺 4.963% [1]，距離 5% 嗰條心理紅線只係爭一線。呢條線而家成為華爾街啲好友淡友嘅戰場——一邊低位接貨，一邊就準備投降 [4]。德國 Bund 2.91%、英國 Gilt 4.70%、日本 JGB 2.345% [1]，長債息全球一齊 repricing。仲有，Cleveland Fed 主席公開認衰，話 FOMC 嗰個利率路徑指引「誤導咗市場」[5]；Boston 嗰位 Collins 又話佢同情啲想改鷹派字眼嘅異見者 [6]。你話呢個聯儲局係咪準備減息？CPI 仲喺 3.32% [1]、PPI 6.03% [1]，你估佢敢減咩？

今日入市嘅主題好清楚——滯脹式成本推動壓力，撞正一條馴服唔到嘅長債。核心 PCE 3.2% [1]，連四捨五入都掂唔到目標位；PPI 6% [1]，即係警告你下個月 CPI 唔會好睇。紐約聯儲嘅調查話 4 月份短期通脹預期又抽高 [7]。但你睇下個股市，SPY 企喺 732.03 嘅歷史高位 [1]，put/call ratio 1.121 [1]，即係話有人對沖但未恐慌。呢個格局好脆弱——任何一個鷹派數據出嚟，就會迫 30 年債息穿 5%，而現貨期貨基差交易嗰隻黑天鵝，根本無人 position 緊。

VIX 現貨 17.32，前月期貨 19.20，contango +10.85% [1]——正 carry 環境，靜市之下機械式咁推啲人做 short vol、long 股票。所以本人嘅取態係早市有弱勢就溫和買入，但只要 30 年債息日內穿 5.00%，個 conviction 即刻散晒。黃金 432.96，GLD 升 0.46% [1]——呢個就係訊號嚟㗎，避險買盤其實已經出嚟咗，就算股市企喺高位都好。

今日要睇嘅水位：

SPY：732 — 必守；跌穿 728 就開個 720 真空位
30 年債息：5.00% — 好友底線；收市企穿即刻反轉成個風險盤
10 年債息：4.38% [1] — 樞紐位；持續企穿 4.45% 壓 QQQ duration 交易
原油（WTI）：$95.85 — 荷姆茲指標；過 $98 迫通脹重新定價，跌穿 $92 開風險
黃金：433 — 企穩就係好友；結構性買盤仲喺度
VIX 現貨：17.32 — 淡友底線；穿 20 就 contango 倒轉，整個取態反轉做淡

要留意： 5 月 8 日（星期五）嘅就業數據（NFP）。如果出 20 萬以上、加上時薪按月升 0.4% 以上，長債息再上一級，30 年債息直接穿 5%。要重燃減息憧憬，唯一場景係新增職位低過 10 萬同失業率上升。但初領失業金人數而家 20 萬 [1]，已經反駁咗「就業弱」呢個劇本。

完全反轉取態嘅劇本： 開市前伊朗拒絕荷姆茲提案。原油穿 $100、30 年債息穿 5.00%、VIX contango 崩盤，long vol 交易主導全日。

參考資料 [1] Pre-market data tape, 2026-05-07 (CPI, PPI, core PCE, yields, ETF prices, VIX, commodities, options). [2] Bloomberg Markets, "Oil Steadies as US and Iran Weigh Deal to Reopen Hormuz," 6 May 2026. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-06/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-may-7 [3] Bloomberg Markets, "US Stocks Fall From Record High as Market Awaits Iran's Reply," 7 May 2026. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-07/us-stock-futures-steady-as-us-awaits-iran-reply-earnings-unfold [4] Bloomberg Markets, "US Yields at 5% Tug Traders Between Dip-Buying Greed and Fear," 7 May 2026. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-07/us-yields-at-5-tug-traders-between-dip-buying-greed-and-fear [5] Bloomberg Economics, "Fed's Hammack Says FOMC Signal on Rate Path Was Misleading," 7 May 2026. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-07/fed-s-hammack-says-fomc-signal-on-rate-path-was-misleading [6] Bloomberg Economics, "Fed's Collins Favored Changing FOMC Statement With Dissenters," 7 May 2026. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-07/fed-s-collins-favored-changing-fomc-statement-with-dissenters [7] Bloomberg Economics, "Short-Term Inflation Expectations Edge Up, New York Fed Survey Finds," 7 May 2026. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-07/short-term-inflation-expectations-edge-up-ny-fed-survey-finds