CPI爆數冧減息預期，債息頂住4.46%關口

夜晚個盤其實係尋日risk-off嘅延續：芯片股全球被沽，但唔係新catalyst，只係動能盤拆倉啫[1]。核心CPI報出嚟過晒預期咁熱，股債一齊冧，油價就因為Hormuz封鎖僵局向上抽[2][3]。金價回吐，因為市場重新計過減息路徑會慢好多[4]。仲有聯儲局官員直接點名話服務業通脹係過熱訊號——係近幾個禮拜以嚟，地區聯儲行長最鷹嘅口風[5]。VIX期貨企住5.57% contango[6]入到現貨開市，即係話雖然SPY收-0.99%[7]、QQQ收-2.24%[8]，但近月根本冇恐慌性買盤接火棒。

今日主題係咩？教科書式嘅成本推動型通脹，正面撞落已經企穩5厘以上嘅30年債息。CPI按年3.95%[9]、PPI跑到6.03%[10]——你話生產商Margin仲頂得幾耐？30年息5.019%[11]、10年息4.455%[12]，市場其實已經寫晒喺價度：「能源做緊邊際定價者嘅時候，減息？冇可能。」原油$101.89（升$3.82）[13]就係兇器——呢個唔係需求拉動，係關稅同能源供應衝擊。即係話聯儲局唔可以放水，否則就係幫通脹埋單。Goolsbee講「pervasive price pressures」即係聯儲局內部都認咗數[5]。Put/call ratio去到2.127[14]，倉位明顯已經轉防守；但係週五到期嘅ATM引伸波幅淨係13.84%[15]，期權相對實際波動嚟講仲係平——對沖嘅人踩踏未開始㗎。

今日好友淡友分界線：10年息4.455%[12]。破4.50%上，30年會拉到5.10%，逼出第二輪股票去風險；反過嚟跌返落4.40%以下，QQQ就可以嘗試企返700關。TLT 85.10（-0.54%）[16]啱啱坐喺之前嘅低位——失守嘅話，現貨期貨基差交易就入壓力區。金價428.56（-1.40%）[17]係關鍵指標：如果債息升而金價收紅，即係結構性避險買盤返嚟；再收綠就證明係清倉式拋售主導。

日內偏向：VIX contango +5.57%[6]係正常（冇倒掛），技術面係偏向逢低fade夜晚弱勢，唔係追跌。前月期貨19.70對現貨18.66[18]都係話呢輪係倉位拆，唔係制度性轉變——暫時係咁啦。波動率彈起就fade，但要喺關鍵位之上先做。

今日關鍵位：

10年息：4.455%[12] —— 好淡分界；破4.50%觸發QQQ第二輪下跌
SPY：731.99[7] —— 必須守住之前嘅gap；失守就見725
QQQ：697.32[8] —— 695係AI板塊底線
TLT：85.10[16] —— 基差交易壓力觸發點
原油：$101.89[13] —— 升穿$103逼出新一輪CPI重新定價

要留意： 今日CPI報告（5月12日週二）——已經出咗，數爆[2][19]；現貨時段如果核心數有上調，或者有聯儲局官員跟Goolsbee[5]個鷹嘴調，淡友論點實錘。倒返轉，如果Hormuz僵局突然爆出和平消息[20]令10年息跌返4.40%以下、原油穿$100，呢個setup就會反轉做空頭回補升浪，殺到週五13.84% IV到期[15]。

參考資料 [1] Chip Stocks Down on Momentum and Not CPI — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-05-12/chip-stocks-down-on-momentum-not-cpi-bokeh-s-forrest-video [2] Stocks Sink on Hotter-Than-Forecast Core CPI Print, Jump in Oil — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-12/stock-futures-retreat-from-highs-as-cpi-data-looms-oil-climbs [3] Chip Stocks Sink as Inflation Woes Boost US Yields — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-11/asia-stocks-to-gain-oil-rises-on-us-iran-deadlock-markets-wrap [4] Gold Slides Lower as US Inflation Clouds Fed Easing Outlook — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-11/gold-steady-as-traders-track-hormuz-stalemate-inflation-risks [5] Fed's Goolsbee Says Services Inflation May Point to Overheating — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-12/fed-s-goolsbee-says-services-inflation-may-point-to-overheating [6] VIX contango: 5.57% [as of 2026-05-12] [7] SPY: 731.99, -0.99% [as of 2026-05-12] [8] QQQ: 697.32, -2.24% [as of 2026-05-12] [9] CPI YoY: 3.95% [as of 2026-04-01] [10] PPI YoY: 6.03% [as of 2026-03-01] [11] 30Y yield: 5.019% [as of 2026-05-12] [12] 10Y yield: 4.455% [as of 2026-05-12] [13] Crude futures: $101.89, +$3.82 [as of 2026-05-12] [14] Put/call ratio: 2.127 [15] ATM IV: 13.84%, expiry 2026-05-15 [16] TLT: 85.095, -0.54% [as of 2026-05-12] [17] GLD: 428.5625, -1.40% [as of 2026-05-12] [18] VIX spot 18.66 / front future 19.70 [as of 2026-05-12] [19] US Inflation Accelerates as Gas, Rent and Food Prices Climb — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-12/us-inflation-accelerates-in-april-on-rising-gasoline-prices [20] Vietnam Urges US Navy to Let Oil Tanker Through Its Blockade — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-12/vietnam-urges-us-navy-to-let-oil-tanker-through-its-blockade