油價爆升撞正CPI前夕：債息搶閘，股市拖後腿

我話你聽，今晚個市主角根本唔係股票，係原油。WTI期貨直接抽上97.95，一嘢升咗2.53美元 [1]，USO升3.73% [2]，點解？因為週末華府同德黑蘭傾唔掂數，霍爾木茲海峽嗰條油路重開冇望 [3]。債市即刻發爛渣：30年債息收4.986% [4]，10年收4.41% [5]，TLT跌0.63%到85.54 [6]。連天然氣都跟住癲——UNG升6.34%，近月期貨2.923 [7]——典型嘅成本推動型通脹，偏偏撞正CPI出嗰個禮拜 [8]。人民銀行隔夜更加直接點名講「輸入性通脹風險」 [9]，即係話呢個成本推動嘅問題已經唔係淨係美國嘅事，係全球都要孭飛。

呢個分析框架擺到明：CPI出之前幾個鐘，已經係成本推動型格局，華爾街啲人仲未出數就已經預埋位話今次「夠辣」 [10]。你諗下，整體CPI按年3.32% [11]，PPI按年6.03% [12]，核心PCE 3.2% [13]，PPI同CPI個gap咁大，即係話毛利已經被壓到貼地，遲早要轉嫁出去，你估啲企業會硬食咩？聯邦基金利率得3.64% [14]，配呢個通脹背景，股票估值嗰個「鴿派路徑」根本一毫子水位都冇。2s10s升到+0.48% [15]，3m10y +0.81% [16]，孳息曲線重新陡峭——但係留意，係熊市式陡峭，係長債供應消化唔到嚇出嚟嘅，唔係短端鬆綁。

股市呢？係停滯，未斷纜。SPY升0.11%到738.46 [17]，QQQ升0.19%到712.55 [18]——明知有重磅數據出，期貨都係攤喺度。Put/Call比率1.782 [19]偏高，明顯有人買保險防身，但5月15日到期嘅ATM引伸波幅得13.41% [20]。VIX現貨18.4對近月期貨19.49，contango +5.92% [21]。Contango仲係正數，結構上做淡VIX、食波幅衰減仲有得做，但個墊咁薄——CPI出之前，真係剛剛夠用。

黃金（GLD 433.85，升0.02% [22]）冇恐慌，係喺度消化緊。呢個就係訊號。如果黃金真係嗌救命，個市就應該防守先行。但而家邊際資金係流向能源，逃離長債——你話係咪咁㗎？

今日要睇嘅關鍵位：

10年債息：4.41% [5]——收高過4.45%即係債市跌勢延續入CPI；跌穿4.38%股市就有得抖
SPY：738.46 [17]——好友線睇740（gap fill阻力）；淡友扳機係734
原油期貨：97.95 [1]——企穩100美元以上，唔理CPI出乜，都要做鷹派反應
VIX近月期貨：19.49 [21]——破21即係contango反轉，做淡波幅嗰班要平倉
TLT：85.54 [6]——失守85.00即係30年息直奔5.10%

要留意： 5月12號禮拜二CPI出爐（美東08:30） [23]。如果整體數高過按年3.4% [11]（前值3.32%），即係確認成本推動已經完全傳導，會觸發熊市式陡峭化，拖SPY穿734。

參考資料 [1] crude_futures 97.95, +$2.53 change [as of 2026-05-11] [2] uso_price 138.5792, +3.73% [as of 2026-05-11] [3] Bloomberg, "Oil Climbs as US-Iran Deadlock Lifts Bond Yields: Markets Wrap" https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-10/us-stock-futures-slip-as-us-iran-deal-hope-fades-markets-wrap [4] yield_30y 4.986% [as of 2026-05-11] [5] yield_10y 4.41% [as of 2026-05-11] [6] tlt_price 85.54, -0.63% [as of 2026-05-11] [7] ung_price 11.2401, +6.34%; natgas_futures 2.923 [as of 2026-05-11] [8] Bloomberg, "Morgan Stanley Sees 'Spicier' CPI as Inflation Week Kicks Off" https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-11/morgan-stanley-sees-spicier-cpi-as-inflation-week-kicks-off [9] Bloomberg, "China Warns of Imported Inflation Risk as Oil Prices Increase" https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-11/china-warns-of-imported-inflation-risk-as-oil-prices-increase [10] Bloomberg, "Morgan Stanley Sees 'Spicier' CPI" (same as [8]) [11] cpi_yoy 3.32 [as of 2026-03-01] [12] ppi_yoy 6.03 [as of 2026-03-01] [13] core_pce_yoy 3.2 [as of 2026-03-01] [14] fed_funds_rate 3.64 [as of 2026-04-01] [15] yield_curve_2_10 0.48% [as of 2026-05-08] [16] yield_curve_3m_10y 0.81% [as of 2026-05-11] [17] spy_price 738.46, +0.11% [as of 2026-05-11] [18] qqq_price 712.55, +0.19% [as of 2026-05-11] [19] put_call_ratio 1.782 [20] atm_iv_pct 13.41, expiry 2026-05-15 [21] vix_spot 18.4, vix_front_future 19.49, contango +5.92% [as of 2026-05-11] [22] gld_price 433.85, +0.02% [as of 2026-05-11] [23] Upcoming economic releases: Tuesday May 12, 2026 CPI