長債息升穿 5.14%，股市冇神冇氣

收市嘅故事好簡單——長債講晒嘢，股市行人路。早段已經話咗你聽，真正嘅戲肉喺債市，唔喺個 tape 度。S&P 500 收 738.65，跌 0.07% [1]；Nasdaq-100 收 706.55，跌 0.34% [2]。表面風平浪靜，但你睇下底下：30 年息收 5.147% [3]，10 年息收 4.623% [4]，長債重新定價而家已經係宏觀第一信號。2s/10s 息差擴闊到 54 個基點 [5]，3m/10y 仲拉到 105 個基點 [6]——我話你聽，呢個叫 term premium 嘅故事，唔係衰退故事。PPI 按年 9.82% [7]、CPI 3.95% [8]，仲講緊熊式陡峭化，呢個就係成本推動通脹嘅典型徵狀。但市場仲日日喺度幻想減息？fed funds 仲坐喺 3.64% [9]，你話係咪有啲精神分裂？

今日真正主菜係全球性。日本第一季 GDP 好過預期，BOJ 加息嘅 case 又硬咗 [10]，JGB 10 年已經去到 2.515% [11]。呢條血滲過去德國 Bund 3.00% [12]、英國 Gilt 4.82% [13]，傳染鏈條開始發功——Bloomberg 頭條都明寫，美國孳息升穿頂，亞洲 AI 升浪有排好 [14]。海外買美債嘅邊際買盤即時重新定價緊，美匯廣義指數企喺 119.28 [15]——強到夠殺新興市場，但唔夠強掩飾長端結構性需求問題。

黃金亦印證咗呢個格局。GLD 收 420.50，升 0.77% [16]，雖然 Bloomberg 將個升幅賴落伊朗停火期望度 [17]。嗰啲頭條當佢噪音得啦——真正故事係各國央行儲備有近三成擺喺黃金度。孳息抽升嘅日子金價照升，本人話呢個就係 tell。原油就唱反調：近月期油 102.72，跌 1.66 美元 [18]，USO 收 150.10 升 1.26% [19]，特朗普暫停打伊朗 [20]，地緣溢價暫時封頂。天然氣就企穩 3.031 [21]。

VIX 方面係格局確認，唔係轉勢。現貨 VIX 收 17.82 [22]，近月期貨 20.26 [23]，contango 13.69% [24]——仲喺正常運作區間。但 put/call 比率去到 1.427 [25]，週五到期 ATM IV 17.43% [26]，即係話對沖需求升緊，但實際波幅仲係被壓住。呢個不對稱性，本人勸你要尊重佢。

佈局聽日：

30 年息：5.147% [3] 就係生死線。如果收市企穩 5.20% 以上，熊式陡峭化升級確認，股市估值就要 compress。
TLT：83.56 [27] 而家測緊之前嘅支持位；跌穿 83 個關，債市就進入失序territory，現貨對期貨嘅 basis risk 即刻爆。
SPY：738.65 [1] 仲企喺上週樞紐之上。要睇 735，呢個係必守位；穿咗，dealer gamma 入週五 OPEX 即刻轉負。
黃金（GLD）：420.50 [16]——收市企穩 425 以上，就確認避險買盤帶頭，唔係跟尾。

要留意：隔夜時段 東京盤 JGB 10 年。GDP 數據 [10] 之後如果再上一級、企穩 2.55% [11] 以上，會直接傳到 Bund 同美債期貨 pre-market，美國 30 年息有可能未開盤已經穿 5.20% [3]。

參考資料 [1] SPY close 738.65 (-0.07%), 2026-05-18 market data [2] QQQ close 706.55 (-0.34%), 2026-05-18 market data [3] US 30Y yield 5.147%, 2026-05-18 market data [4] US 10Y yield 4.623%, 2026-05-18 market data [5] 2s/10s curve 0.54%, 2026-05-18 market data [6] 3m/10y curve 1.055%, 2026-05-18 market data [7] PPI YoY 9.82%, BLS release dated 2026-04-01 [8] CPI YoY 3.95%, BLS release dated 2026-04-01 [9] Fed funds effective rate 3.64%, 2026-04-01 [10] Japan's Faster Economic Growth Supports BOJ's Case for Hike, Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-18/japan-s-economy-grows-faster-than-expected-backing-boj-hike [11] JGB 10Y yield 2.515%, 2026-04-01 [12] German Bund 10Y yield 2.9963%, 2026-04-01 [13] UK Gilt 10Y yield 4.8207%, 2026-04-01 [14] Bond Yield Surge Poses Threat to Asia's AI-Fueled Stock Rally, Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-19/bond-yield-surge-poses-threat-to-asia-s-ai-fueled-stock-rally [15] DXY broad 119.2825, 2026-05-15 [16] GLD close 420.50 (+0.77%), 2026-05-18 market data [17] Gold Extends Gain as Hopes for Iran Truce Ease Inflation Fears, Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-18/gold-holds-gain-as-hopes-for-iran-truce-ease-inflation-fears [18] Crude futures 102.72, -1.66 dollars, 2026-05-18 market data [19] USO close 150.10 (+1.26%), 2026-05-18 market data [20] Oil Declines After Trump Says He Called Off Strike on Iran, Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-18/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-may-19 [21] Natural gas futures 3.031, 2026-05-18 market data [22] VIX spot 17.82, 2026-05-18 market data [23] VIX front future 20.26, 2026-05-18 market data [24] VIX contango 13.69%, 2026-05-18 market data [25] Put/call ratio 1.427, 2026-05-18 options data [26] ATM IV 17.43%, expiry 2026-05-22 [27] TLT close 83.56 (-0.12%), 2026-05-18 market data