債市大冧市迎接開市油價衝擊再度主導大局

噚晚個盤，全球債市一齊冧——由東京冧到倫敦再冧到紐約，齊心到震。原因好簡單，油價又再坐正做大佬。荷姆茲海峽搞搞震，前月期油直接抽上 $100.32 [1]，單日升咗 $3.40 [2]。你話係咪典型骨牌效應？日債先冧，跟住到德債、英債、然後美債——美國 10 年期收 4.583% [3]，長債更加爆穿 5.118% [4]，TLT 跌 -1.37% [5]。彭博就話，係「擔心戰爭推高油價會迫」央行重新加息 [6][7]。

我話你聽，今日入市最大主題，就係成本推動型通脹迫住個市要 hawkish 重新定價。之前個市仲喺度 price 緊減息，依家點算？PPI 按年升 9.82% [8]，足足比 CPI 嘅 3.95% [9] 高出大約 6 個百分點——呢啲叫做生產商利潤壓縮，要嘛轉嫁去消費者，要嘛就食爆業績。核心 PCE 3.2% [10]，聯儲局根本郁都唔郁得；聯邦基金利率得 3.64% [11]，對住 4.58% 嘅 10 年債 [3]，叫咩限制性貨幣政策？候任主席 Warsh 第一日返工就要面對呢個分析框架口中「失控」嘅孳息率 [12]，而 Barr 理事啱啱又話縮表唔得 [13]——政策路線實時就喺度分裂緊，你估下點解咁亂？

美元就講緊個結構故事。DXY 闊基指數 118.04 [14] 雖然企硬，但 UUP 得 27.745 [15] 反而暴露咗矛盾——表面強勢，骨子裡係外國買家對美債拍賣攰咗。金價 -2.36% [16] 跌返去 417.13 [17]，唔係轉勢，純粹係之前避險買得太勁要獲利回吐——央行嘅儲備買盤呢條結構性主力仲喺度。

股市個 setup 好脆弱。SPY 收 -0.92%，741.27 [18]，QQQ -1.13%，711.64 [19]。Put-call ratio 1.897 [20]，對沖需求爆升；5 月 22 日到期嘅 ATM 引伸波幅得 14.45% [21]，相對於實際風險嚟講仲係平嘢。

今日要睇實嘅關鍵位：

30 年孳息：5.118% [4]——收市企穩之上即確認全球債市壓力格局；跌返 5.05% 以下，股市先有得唞
SPY：741.27 [18]——跌穿 738 直通 730；收復 745 就破壞咗個下跌格局
原油：$100.32 [1]——升穿 $102 就會逼出第二浪沽債潮；跌穿 $97 通脹故仔即穿崩
TLT：83.75 [5]——一定要守住，唔係 basis trade 平倉風險即刻引爆

日內傾向： VIX 現貨 18.14 [22]，前月期貨 20.67 [23]，contango 正 +13.95% [24]。正向 contango 唔係叫你 short vol——carry 結構上係幫到 vol 賣家無錯，但個曲線咁斜，反映後月恐慌情緒升緊。本人偏向 反彈時做多波幅做防守，SPY 745 之下嘅反彈就 fade 佢。

要留意： 今日冇美國一級數據；下個 catalyst 要等到 5 月 28 日（禮拜四）嘅 PCE [25]。今日純粹係靠原油同 30 年債嘅 positioning day。如果原油跌返 $97 之下、30 年債又跌返 5.05% 以下，個傾向就翻好友；但如果 30 年債收市企穩 5.20% 之上，週末前就要有投降式拋售——係咁㗎，唔係話玩你。

參考資料 [1] Crude futures 100.32 (pre-market data, 2026-05-15) [2] Crude futures $3.40 dollar change (pre-market data, 2026-05-15) [3] US 10Y yield 4.583% (pre-market data, 2026-05-15) [4] US 30Y yield 5.118% (pre-market data, 2026-05-15) [5] TLT -1.37% at 83.755 (pre-market data, 2026-05-15) [6] Global Bond Selloff Worsens as Rising Oil Prices Spook Investors — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-15/treasuries-lead-global-bond-yields-higher-on-inflation-angst [7] Stocks Fall as Inflation Jitters Lift Bond Yields — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-14/asian-stocks-to-rise-as-ai-rally-spurs-wall-street-markets-wrap [8] PPI YoY 9.82% (as of 2026-04-01) [9] CPI YoY 3.95% (as of 2026-04-01) [10] Core PCE YoY 3.2% (as of 2026-03-01) [11] Fed funds rate 3.64% (as of 2026-04-01) [12] SocGen Says Warsh Faces Big Test With Yields Turning 'Unhinged' — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-15/socgen-says-warsh-faces-big-test-with-yields-turning-unhinged [13] Barr Pushes Back on Proposals to Shrink Fed's Balance Sheet — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-05-15/barr-pushes-back-on-plans-to-shrink-fed-s-balance-sheet-video [14] DXY broad 118.0392 (as of 2026-05-08) [15] UUP 27.745 (pre-market data, 2026-05-15) [16] GLD change -2.36% (pre-market data, 2026-05-15) [17] GLD price 417.13 (pre-market data, 2026-05-15) [18] SPY 741.27, -0.92% (pre-market data, 2026-05-15) [19] QQQ 711.64, -1.13% (pre-market data, 2026-05-15) [20] Put/call ratio 1.897 (pre-market data, 2026-05-15) [21] ATM IV 14.45%, expiry 2026-05-22 (pre-market data) [22] VIX spot 18.14 (pre-market data, 2026-05-15) [23] VIX front future 20.67 (pre-market data, 2026-05-15) [24] VIX contango +13.95% (pre-market data, 2026-05-15) [25] PCE / Personal Income & Outlays — Thursday May 28, 2026 (economic calendar)

債市大冧市迎接開市 油價衝擊再度主導大局