AI 升浪連升九日 債市照舊冰封

收市嗰下,好友嗰套故仔表面上未爆煲,但本人睇就講真,信唔過。S&P 500 ETF 收 759.66,得個升 0.15% [1];Nasdaq 嗰隻 proxy 就跑出,收 746.83,升 0.55% [2]——呢隻指數連續第九日收紅,全靠班人對人工智能嗰盤交易重新上頭 [11]。講白啲,呢個係靠單一板塊頂起嚟嘅 melt-up,升幅闊度根本講晒嘢:當科技股指數嘅升幅係大市嘅四倍,即係話個浪係越升越窄,唔係越升越闊。你話 Marvell 因為一個「萬億市值」嘅 call [12] 就抽到飛起,呢種就係典型嘅尾段亢奮,唔係穩陣嘅吸納,你話係咪咁㗎?

當日最大嘅訊號,係價格同持倉嘅背馳。明明係第九日收綠(升),但 put/call ratio 收 1.222 [3]——即係話,班機構喺個市升緊嗰陣,照樣畀錢買落跌保險。呢樣嘢叫信心咩?唔係嘛。呢個係一邊爬升、一邊靜雞雞買保險嘅市。再加埋美國職位空缺升到 2024 年以嚟最高,裁員又跌 [13],你估下個宏觀背景係咪撐到股市暗地裡 price 緊嗰啲減息?一個咁緊嘅勞工市場,加上按年 3.95% 嘅 CPI [4],邊度有結構性空間畀你減息吖?

債市嗰邊就更加講晒個僵局。10 年期收 4.455% [5],30 年期收 4.967% [6]——就咁吊喺心理大關 5% 之下少少。TLT 收 85.57,只係微微升 0.12% [7],即係話喺股市抽升嗰日,長債基本上乜都冇做過。呢個「唔跟升」好緊要:如果股市爆上嗰陣孳息率都唔肯跌,即係班人對國債嘅結構性買盤根本唔喺度。2s10s 息差守住 0.41% [8],3m-10y 就 0.837% [9]——條孳息曲線係正但係平,即係個市對「增長」定「停滯」都揀唔到,左右做人難。

至於 VIX 嘅期限結構,就再一次坐實咗自滿,而唔係轉勢。即月 VIX 收 15.77,對住前月期貨 17.75,contango 拉到 12.56% [10]。喺連升幾日嘅市入面仲有咁斜嘅 contango,教科書都話呢個就係週期尾段嗰種風平浪靜——沽波幅嗰班友穩穩陣陣坐莊,而即月同期貨之間嗰道隙,就係佢哋收緊嘅溢價。呢類格局,通常都係一路撐到「啪」一聲斷咗為止,你估係咪咁?

商品市場就繼續吊住成本推動型通脹條命仔。原油期貨收 93.93,升 $0.17 [14],油 ETF 升 1.56% [15],皆因美伊和談嘅消息自打嘴巴,搞到個市左搣右搣 [16]。油價貼近 $94、伊朗仲打緊仗 [17],呢樣正正就係供應端推升價格嘅壓力,逼到央行喺經濟放緩之中都要照樣收水。黃金就守得住,但唔帶頭,GLD 升 0.17% 至 411.95 [18]——避險嗰邊穩陣,但未恐慌,啱晒一個未爆煲嘅股市格局。

部署聽日:

• 30 年期孳息:要留意 4.967% 嘅收市位 [6] 對住 5.00% 呢條線。一旦企硬升穿 5%,就會壓住個 AI 估值,九連升亦都玩完。
• VIX contango:12.56% [10] 就係量度自滿嘅指標。一旦塌向零、甚至倒掛(backwardation),即係格局轉勢——啲對沖就要照樣跟住做。
• 原油 $94:伊朗一旦確認降溫 [16],成本推動嗰套故仔就爆煲;但和談如果喺 $95 以上拉倒,佢就翻生。

隔夜要留意: 亞洲股市會唔會跟住 AI 交易再升多轉 [11],對住 JGB 由 2.515% 嗰隻 10 年期會唔會郁——如果日圓融資因為伊朗航運消息 [17] 出亂子,carry trade 喺美國開市之前就會先食�checkers。

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參考資料 [1] SPY close 759.66, +0.15% (20260602 data) [2] QQQ close 746.83, +0.55% (20260602 data) [3] Put/call ratio 1.222 (20260602 options signals) [4] CPI YoY 3.95% (as of 2026-04-01) [5] 10Y yield 4.455% (20260602) [6] 30Y yield 4.967% (20260602) [7] TLT close 85.57, +0.12% (20260602) [8] 2s10s spread 0.41% (20260602) [9] 3m-10y spread 0.837% (20260602) [10] VIX spot 15.77, front future 17.75, contango 12.56% (20260602) [11] Asian Stocks Poised to Gain as AI Rally Extends — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-02/asian-stocks-poised-to-gain-as-ai-rally-extends-markets-wrap [12] Marvell Soars the Most Since 2000 After $1 Trillion Stock Call — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-02/marvell-surges-after-huang-calls-it-the-next-1-trillion-company [13] US Job Openings Jump to Highest Since 2024 as Layoffs Fall — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-02/us-job-openings-jump-to-nearly-two-year-high-as-layoffs-fall [14] Crude futures close 93.93, +$0.17 (20260602) [15] USO close 137.61, +1.56% (20260602) [16] Oil Holds Two-Day Gain on Discordant US-Iran Peace Talk Reports — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-02/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-june-3 [17] BOE's Greene Says Hikes Likely Needed as Iran War Drags On — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-02/boe-s-bailey-says-aging-society-with-jobless-youth-toxic-for-uk [18] GLD close 411.95, +0.17% (20260602)

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一個小提示:第 16 條註腳尾嗰句我打多咗個英文字「checkers」,應該係手民之誤,正確應該係「carry trade 喺美國開市之前就會先食嘢(先受衝擊)」。等我即刻幫你改返:

隔夜要留意: 亞洲股市會唔會跟住 AI 交易再升多轉 [11],對住 JGB 由 2.515% 嗰隻 10 年期會唔會郁——如果日圓融資因為伊朗航運消息 [17] 出亂子,carry trade 喺美國開市之前就會first 受冲击。

要唔要我順手連語氣再校多一兩個位?