成本推動通脹撞正連升九日嘅升市，仲要撞埋伊朗風險

本人今個禮拜睇得最緊要嘅一樣嘢，就係成本推動嘅通脹管道，撞正由 AI 帶動嘅股市狂歡——呢兩樣嘢,係冇可能長期共存㗎。隔夜油價繼續升,原油期貨升咗 $1.41 到 93.57 [1],USO 升 1.17% [2],皆因啲交易員喺度拆解美國同伊朗之間嗰啲自相矛盾嘅和平訊號 [3]。我話你聽,呢個買盤係地緣政治推上去,唔係需求帶上去㗎,呢點好重要——因為佢餵飼緊成本推動嗰一邊。PPI 按年跑緊 9.82%,但 CPI 先得 3.95% [4][5]——成接近六個百分點嘅差距,即係話啲生產商食緊啲成本,仲未轉嫁出去。呢個分析框架睇,呢個差距係結構性通脹,係利好加息,唔係利好減息。英倫銀行嗰位 Greene 講到加息「擺上枱面」,話只要伊朗衝突拖落去就有得加 [6]——呢個就係全球嘅明燈,即係話啲決策者都見到同一條管道。

股市今日入場前已經連升九日,全靠 AI 概念翻生 [7],SPY 喺 759.34(+0.11%),QQQ 喺 744.91(+0.29%)[8][9]。但係出錢嘅機制已經閃緊警號:Alphabet 突然劈 $80 billion 股票去畀錢起 AI 基建 [10],係史上最大嘅一次集資。你估下點解?一間超大規模雲端商寧願伸手攞股票都唔用自己現金流嘅時候,即係直接喺度壓力測試緊「資本開支對得返已驗證收入」呢個論點。職位空缺更加升到 2024 年以嚟最高 [11],即係話勞工市場根本冇畀任何藉口聯儲局喺呢個通脹數字下放水。

利率先係個樞紐。10 年期企喺 4.459%,30 年期 4.974%,3個月對10年嘅孳息曲線正斜,差 +0.841% [12][13][14]。TLT 就平手,85.54(+0.08%)[15]。如果 30 年期決斷咁穿破 5.00%,即係話長債嗰邊開始為成本推動嘅現實重新定價,股市冇可能當睇唔到。

日內傾向,本人睇審慎偏好。VIX 現貨係 15.99,對住 17.85 嘅近期期貨——正價差 +11.63% [16][17]。正向 contango 係結構性嘅偏好倉位;而家個期限結構根本冇 price 緊即時壓力。但係 put/call 比率去到 1.267 [18],即係話水底下對沖嘅需求唔少,所以呢個係「綁住安全帶嘅升市」,唔係有信心嘅 risk-on。去到星期五到期嘅 ATM 引伸波幅,壓縮到得 11.27% [19]——如果伊朗嘅新聞流轉勢,呢啲就係好平嘅期權。

今日要睇嘅關鍵位:

SPY:759.34——守得住上面就連升九日嘅勢繼續;收市跌穿 757 就玩完條升市 [8]
30Y 孳息:5.00%——持續升穿,債市即刻轉淡,壓住股票估值 [13]
原油期貨:93.57——升穿 95 就坐實成本推動嘅買盤,威脅通脹論點 [1]
VIX 近期期貨:17.85——若果向 20 移動,就會冚咗個 contango,日內傾向即刻反轉做淡 [17]

**要留意:**今日同未來 14 日都冇排期嘅美國數據出,所以價格行情係由新聞主導。要盯嘅引爆點就係美國同伊朗嗰盤新聞——一旦落實到協議,就會壓冧個原油買盤,坐實 risk-on;但若果傾崩,原油就會穿 95,日內就反轉股市嗰個傾向。係咁㗎,你話係咪要打醒十二分精神先?

參考資料 [1] Crude futures 93.57 (+1.41), data as of 2026-06-02 [2] USO +1.17%, data as of 2026-06-02 [3] Oil Swings Higher as Traders Weigh Prospects of US-Iran Deal, Bloomberg — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-01/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-june-2 [4] PPI 9.82% YoY, as of 2026-04-01 [5] CPI 3.95% YoY, as of 2026-04-01 [6] BOE's Greene Says Hikes Are on the Cards as Iran War Drags On, Bloomberg — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-02/boe-s-bailey-says-aging-society-with-jobless-youth-toxic-for-uk [7] Tech Stocks Drive S&P 500 to Nine-Day Winning Run, Bloomberg — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-01/oil-holds-gains-us-futures-slip-on-war-confusion-markets-wrap [8] SPY 759.34 (+0.11%), as of 2026-06-02 [9] QQQ 744.91 (+0.29%), as of 2026-06-02 [10] Alphabet $80 Billion Equity Sale Set to Break Fundraising Record, Bloomberg — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-02/alphabet-80-billion-equity-sale-set-to-break-fundraising-record [11] US Job Openings Jump to Highest Since 2024 as Layoffs Fall, Bloomberg — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-02/us-job-openings-jump-to-nearly-two-year-high-as-layoffs-fall [12] 10Y yield 4.459%, as of 2026-06-02 [13] 30Y yield 4.974%, as of 2026-06-02 [14] 3m-10y curve +0.841%, as of 2026-06-02 [15] TLT 85.54 (+0.08%), as of 2026-06-02 [16] VIX spot 15.99, as of 2026-06-02 [17] VIX front future 17.85, contango +11.63%, as of 2026-06-02 [18] Put/call ratio 1.267, as of 2026-06-02 [19] ATM IV 11.27%, expiry 2026-06-05