地緣政治撐起避險買盤，科技股就插水，CPI 聽日就到

本周最大嘅戲碼，就係中東戰爭溢價同科技股槓桿平倉撞個正著——好難得咁,呢兩股力量竟然將孳息率扯去相反方向。隔夜全球股市又一輪沽售,荷姆茲海峽附近局勢升溫,加埋市場對科技巨企嘅憂慮,一齊夾埋發作 [1][12]。但係你估點?教科書反應竟然倒轉晒:原油跌到一個幾月以嚟最低,近月期油跌咗 $3.55 到 $87.75 [2],USO 插 -3.29% [3],通脹溢價即刻鬆一鬆,Treasuries 就趁住星期三招標前升一升 [4]。TLT 企硬 +0.58% 到 $85.11 [5]——不過你睇下,30Y 仲坐喺結構性令人心寒嘅 5.01% [6],10Y 就 4.53% [7]。

入場嘅主題係輪動,唔係恐慌。QQQ -2.51% 對 SPY -1.21% [8][9],呢個就係資金撤離擠迫嘅 AI 股、而唔係全面逃離風險嘅標誌。Wells Fargo 已經開口話今次 AI 沽售係一記「當頭棒喝」[10],再加上 OpenAI 機密遞交 IPO 申請 [11],等本來已經拉到好盡嘅板塊再添一重供應憂慮。點解呢樣咁緊要?因為通脹嘅大背景,根本冇畀任何掩護畀 Fed 去打救股市:PPI 按年跑緊 9.82% [12]、CPI 3.95% [13],對住 3.63% 嘅聯邦基金利率 [14]。市場仲喺度 price 緊減息?即係 price 緊一個結構上根本做唔到嘅 Fed,你話係咪咁㗎?

要留意黃金嘅暗示。GLD 跟住大市去風險,跌 -1.55% 到 $391.12 [15]——但喺呢個分析框架入面,黃金而家先係最主要嘅避險資產。一個戰爭溢價嘅交易日,連黃金都同科技股一齊畀人沽,咁就唔係 flight-to-quality,而係 liquidation 嘅走勢。我話你聽:如果連荷姆茲嘅新聞標題都撐唔起黃金,咁啲股市反彈你就要打多個問號。

日內本人傾向造淡。VIX 現貨 21.04 高過近月期貨 20.05,contango 讀數 -4.71% [16]——即係 backwardation,代表期限結構 price 緊近期恐慌高過遠期恐慌。呢個就係「升就沽」嘅格局,再加上 put/call 比率 1.251 [17]、IV rank 喺 45.1 [18] 撐住。我嘅做法:逢強去阻力位就 fade,千祈唔好追開市。

今日冇一級嘅美國數據出——成個交易日就係純粹喺度部署,等聽日嘅催化劑。CPI 喺星期三、6 月 10 號、美東早上 8:30 出,前值按年 3.95% [13],而 PPI 仲嗌緊 9.82% [12],核心數據只要高過預期少少,就足以引爆減息嘅故事,連 30Y 都會穿 5.01% [6]。

最殺局嘅變數:荷姆茲真係封鎖、或者美軍出手。Trump 已經開口話美國「必須回應」嗰架被擊落嘅直升機 [19]。如果隔夜油價彈返上 $90 以上,咁「油跌/債升」呢個機制即刻倒轉——孳息率抽高、黃金狂奔,而本人嗰個造淡波幅嘅傾向就會變成一個陷阱。你話係咪要小心啲?

今日關鍵位:

• SPY:730 [9]——收喺上面,輪動就算有序;跌穿就開 720
• QQQ:698 [8]——必守位;失守就確認科技股帶頭向下
• 30Y 孳息:5.01% [6]——升穿就係債券義勇軍嘅紅線,對股市不利
• VIX:21 [16]——只要維持 backwardation,造淡傾向就守得住,直至佢拉平
• 原油:$87.75 [2]——彈返 $90 以上,成個盤面即刻反轉

要留意: CPI,星期三 6 月 10 號,美東早上 8:30——核心高過預期,就會送 30Y 穿 5.01%,亦都會終結任何減息嘅憧憬。

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參考資料 [1] Stocks Hit by Chipmaker Rout Amid US-Iran Jitters: Markets Wrap — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-08/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates [2] Crude futures $87.75, -$3.55 [as of 2026-06-09] [3] USO -3.29% [as of 2026-06-09] [4] Treasuries Advance Before Auction as Oil Prices Retreat Further — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-09/treasuries-advance-before-auction-as-oil-prices-retreat-further [5] TLT $85.11, +0.58% [as of 2026-06-09] [6] 30Y yield 5.01% [as of 2026-06-09] [7] 10Y yield 4.53% [as of 2026-06-09] [8] QQQ $698.11, -2.51% [as of 2026-06-09] [9] SPY $730.26, -1.21% [as of 2026-06-09] [10] AI Selloff a 'Wake-Up Call' for Investors, Wells Fargo Says — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-09/ai-selloff-was-a-wake-up-call-for-investors-wells-fargo-says [11] OpenAI Confidentially Files for IPO as Tech Rivals Compete for Cash — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-06-09/openai-confidentially-files-for-ipo-video [12] PPI 9.82% YoY [as of 2026-04-01] [13] CPI 3.95% YoY [as of 2026-04-01] [14] Fed funds rate 3.63% [as of 2026-05-01] [15] GLD $391.12, -1.55% [as of 2026-06-09] [16] VIX spot 21.04, front future 20.05, contango -4.71% [as of 2026-06-09] [17] Put/call ratio 1.251 [as of 2026-06-09] [18] IV rank 45.1 [as of 2026-06-09] [19] Oil Pares Losses After Trump Says US 'Must Respond' to Attack — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-08/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-june-9