停火帶動風險偏好，但長債一頭重債

隔夜市況。 美股指數期貨喺現貨開市前企穩，撈底嘅人入場托起跌殘咗嘅科技股，加上美國同伊朗雙方同意停止再開火，敵對局面降溫 [1][3]。最乾淨利落嘅訊號嚟自能源：原油喺四個月低位 $69.89 附近企住 [2]，停火令霍爾木茲海峽嘅供應溢價消失，雖然油輪流量因為仲驚住有船隻襲擊而轉淡 [9]。呢個分析框架將油價嘅期限結構睇得比 VIX 更重要,當成通脹同風險嘅領先指標——而前月合約跌到四個月低位、襲擊又「停咗」,即係市場喺度定價地緣政治降溫,唔係升溫 [10]。盤前 SPY 報 737.24(+1.13%）,QQQ 報 715.45(+1.26%）[4][5],延續住執平貨嘅買盤。

主導主題。 風險偏好係真,但好浮淺,而個樽頸仍然係孳息曲線嘅長端。30 年期 4.859%、10 年期 4.376% [6][7],做緊聯儲局做唔到嘅嘢:PPI 按年跑緊 13.08%、CPI 4.27% [11][12],對住 3.63% 嘅聯邦基金利率 [13],係債市——唔係聯儲局——喺度釐定全經濟嘅利率,而 2s10s 得 +31 點子 [14],一啲緩衝都冇。一個油價帶動嘅通脹回落故事,係好友喺度最好嘅朋友;30 年期一旦抽上,就係佢哋嘅天花板。你話係咪咁㗎?

倉位。 認沽認購比率 1.185 [15] 偏高——升市嗰陣有人落緊對沖,呢個係建設性嘅(去咗槓桿嘅倉仲有彈藥),唔係亢奮。IV rank 得 27.8 [16],ATM IV 喺 12.5% 附近 [17],所以期權相對全年嘅波幅區間嚟講係平嘅。

日內傾向。 VIX 現貨 18.23,低過 18.65 嘅前月期貨——正價差 +2.3% [18]。正向 contango(期貨高過現貨)令 VIX-ETF 嘅轉倉機制繼續同長倉揸 vol 嘅人作對,支持今日傾向建設性、撈底嘅部署。只要 contango 仲喺度,傾向就係逢低吸納;一旦翻轉做逆價差(現貨高過期貨),呢個解讀就會完全倒轉。

關鍵位。 要留意:SPY 737 [4] 係跳空之後嘅好淡分界;QQQ 企穩 715 以上 [5] 就確認科技股帶頭嘅格局。利率方面,10 年期 4.376% [7] 就係條線——一推向 4.45%,無論停咗火都好,估值都會受壓。原油喺 $70 附近 [2] 係通脹嘅樞紐:一旦重新企返上 $73–74,就會重新引入呢輪升市啱啱先折讓走嘅能源溢價風險。

今日數據。 冇排期。今個禮拜嘅催化劑係7 月 2 日(星期四)嘅就業報告——非農同失業率。續領失業金人數 1,821,000 [19],暗示緊雙重使命入面請人嗰邊轉弱,如果薪資數字大幅低過市場預期,就會將減息預期拉前,並且透過短端令曲線變陡。你估下點解市場咁緊張呢份數據?

轉勢因素。 霍爾木茲海峽再出事——一宗證實嘅船隻襲擊推翻咗個「停火」[9][10]——就會送原油重返 $73 以上,將通脹同長債一齊重新定價向上。單單呢一個變化,就足以幾分鐘內將今日嘅逢低吸納傾向,扭轉做見高沽貨。係咁㗎。

參考資料 [1] US Futures Up as Dip Buyers Lift Tech, US-Iran Hostilities Fade — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-29/us-futures-up-as-dip-buyers-lift-tech-us-iran-hostilities-fade [2] Oil Trades Near Four-Month Low as US and Iran Halt Fresh Attacks — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-28/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-june-29 [3] Dip Buyers Lift US Stocks Despite Rise in Oil: Markets Wrap — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-28/us-futures-climb-on-reports-peace-talks-to-resume-markets-wrap [4] SPY price 737.24 (+1.13%), as of 2026-06-29 [5] QQQ price 715.45 (+1.26%), as of 2026-06-29 [6] 30Y yield 4.859%, as of 2026-06-29 [7] 10Y yield 4.376%, as of 2026-06-29 [9] Hormuz Oil Transits Continue Though Attacks Make Owners Wary — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-29/hormuz-traffic-drops-off-as-vessel-attacks-raise-fresh-concerns [10] Oil market / geopolitical de-escalation context — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-28/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-june-29 [11] PPI YoY 13.08%, as of 2026-05-01 [12] CPI YoY 4.27%, as of 2026-05-01 [13] Fed funds rate 3.63%, as of 2026-05-01 [14] 2s10s curve +31bp, as of 2026-06-26 [15] Put/call ratio 1.185 [16] IV rank 27.8 [17] ATM IV 12.5%, expiry 2026-06-29 [18] VIX spot 18.23 vs front future 18.65, contango +2.3%, as of 2026-06-29 [19] Continuing claims 1,821,000, as of 2026-06-13