霍爾木茲一開，風險資產即刻抽升，但黃金唔買帳

聽朝最大嘅故事，就係伊朗宣布霍爾木茲海峽「完全開放」畀商船通行，一開聲，所有之前炒緊戰爭溢價嘅資產全線掉頭 [1][4]。原油即劈 $12.81 跌到 $81.88，USO 一日插 9.17%，鋁價、LNG 船運費、美滙指數，全部跟住油價一齊冚落嚟 [2][3]。歐洲開市，股市企得穩，德國 10 年債息喺 2.905% 無乜郁過 [5]，美滙就繼續插水，華爾街啲 desk 索性開口講：戰爭避險盤做完喇 [6]。但有樣嘢古怪——黃金唔跟隊。GLD 照升 1.65%，去到 $447.33 [7]，地緣風險明明消散咗佢都照升。你話係咪好玩呢？呢個分析框架睇嘅，就係呢隻訊號：當地緣緩和嘅大市入面金價照升，佢炒緊嘅唔係新聞，係各國央行結構性買金同美元貶值嗰條大 trend。

入到美股時段，主旋律就係「輕量版再通脹」輪動:油價跌，暫時幫債市鬆一鬆成本推動通脹嘅壓力，但 10 年期仲企喺 4.248% [8]、30 年期喺 4.886% [9]，擺明同短期減息唔 match，雖然 fed funds rate 得 3.64% [10]。核心 PCE 仲係 2.97% [11]、PPI 按年跑 6.03% [12]，通脹格局其實冇變過，變嘅只係油價呢個邊際輸入而已。所以債市嗰個反彈（TLT +0.83% 去到 $86.99 [13]）我話你聽，等 dealer desk 做完簿就冇力啦，深唔到去邊。

VIX 現貨喺 17.69，前月期貨 20.05，期貨溢價 13.34% [14]。呢種正 contango 擺到咁明，就係 long bias 格局——賣波幅嗰班友話事，低位有人接，跳空低開都會反彈。今日本人個睇法：尾段 long SPY，早段有弱勢就執返，除非 VIX 現貨再推返上 19 以上先至要縮。

今日關鍵位：

SPY: 707.72 [15]——守得住先可以續升；跌穿 704 日內即轉淡
QQQ: 646.54 [16]——642 係 put wall 底；企上 650 就望 655
原油期貨: $81.88 [17]——彈返上 $84 以上，成本推動通脹個劇本即刻返頭
10Y 債息: 4.248% [8]——一破 4.35%，股市升幾多都無用
GLD: $447 [7]——油跌佢企得住，就證實結構性買盤仲喺度

要留意： 今日冇乜重磅美國數據出，要等到 4 月 30 日（星期四）嘅 PCE 同個人收入開支。今日啲價純粹係 positioning 同新聞流推動。10:00 ET 歐洲收市要睇實德國債息有冇跟油價一齊跌——如果 Bunds 唔升，咁美債嗰個升就係假嘢嚟。

有一個劇情足以全盤推翻以上睇法：如果有新聞話嗰啲試圖過霍爾木茲嘅 LNG 船 [18] 被攔返轉頭，或者伊朗收返「完全開放」嗰句，油價尾部風險即刻返晒嚟，原油彈返去 $90 邊，到時 long 波幅、long 金、short SPY 就變咗周末收市前唯一會賺錢嘅盤。你估下點解？因為個市從來都係一句新聞決定邊一邊贏。

參考資料 [1] Bloomberg, "Gold Prices Surge After Iran Says Hormuz Strait Completely Open" — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-16/gold-steadies-after-trump-expresses-optimism-on-us-iran-truce [2] Bloomberg, "Oil and Gas Prices Plunge After Iran Says Hormuz Strait Is Open" — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-04-17/iran-says-hormuz-strait-completely-open-video [3] Bloomberg, "Aluminum Drops After Iran Says Strait of Hormuz Is Fully Open" — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-17/aluminum-drops-after-iran-says-strait-of-hormuz-is-fully-open [4] Bloomberg, "Stocks Rally While Oil, Dollar Drop on Hormuz Hope" — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-16/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates [5] German 10Y yield 2.9052% as of 2026-03-01 (FRED) [6] Bloomberg, "Wall Street Turns Gloomy on the Dollar as Haven Demand Fades" — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-17/wall-street-turns-gloomy-on-the-dollar-as-haven-demand-fades [7] GLD $447.33, +1.65% (2026-04-17) [8] US 10Y yield 4.248% (2026-04-17) [9] US 30Y yield 4.886% (2026-04-17) [10] Fed funds rate 3.64% (2026-03-01, FRED) [11] Core PCE YoY 2.97% (2026-02-01, BEA) [12] PPI YoY 6.03% (2026-03-01, BLS) [13] TLT $86.995, +0.83% (2026-04-17) [14] VIX spot 17.69, front future 20.05, contango 13.34% (2026-04-17) [15] SPY $707.725, +0.86% (2026-04-17) [16] QQQ $646.54, +0.95% (2026-04-17) [17] WTI crude futures $81.88, -$12.81 (2026-04-17) [18] Bloomberg, "Empty LNG Tankers Attempt Hormuz Crossing Into Persian Gulf" — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-17/empty-lng-tankers-attempt-hormuz-crossing-into-persian-gulf