成本推動通脹遇上伊朗停火，月結臨近

隔夜最搶眼嘅，係油價。原油跌到六星期新低，$87.16，瀉咗$1.74 [1]，皆因美國同伊朗傾掂咗，臨時協議將停火再延長60日 [2]。不過你以為通脹就此見頂？冇咁簡單。Chevron個CEO親口認，今個星期霍爾木茲海峽有幾艘船俾人襲擊 [3]。歐洲嗰邊就更鷹派——歐元區四大經濟體嘅通脹全部都企喺ECB嗰條2%線之上，擺明撐加息 [4]；日本就爆出佢哋燒咗創紀錄嘅$73.6 billion去托住個日圓，唔俾佢穿160 [5]。至於股市?照樣摸頂,SPY 756.02(+0.19%)、QQQ 737.07(+0.20%)[6],VIX就釘喺15.71[7]。

入到今日,個主題好清楚:一邊係成本推動嘅通脹格局,另一邊係班友日日跪求聯儲局減息。我話你聽,PPI按年跑到9.82%,CPI先得3.95% [8]——成個近六點嘅差距,代表咩?代表企業利潤俾人壓到扁晒,根本唔係需求強勁。核心PCE 3.29% [9],仍然高過目標成個百分點,而fed funds先得3.64% [10]。喺呢個分析框架之下,生產者物價企喺接近雙位數,你叫聯儲局點減息?結構上根本減唔到。傳聞Bessent同Warsh嗰餐早餐,直頭冇得傾減息 [11];長債嗰邊都認同——30年期企喺4.978%,貼住5%呢條心理大關 [12],10年期就4.445% [13]。

日內傾向?略為偏好友。VIX近月期貨(17.8)較現貨高13.3%,即係正價差contango [14]——正contango係市況平靜嘅訊號,唔係嗰種會逼你轉淡嘅倒掛。但係put/call ratio高達1.837 [15],水底下對沖盤好重手。所以呢場係「做好友但要擺緊個止蝕位」,唔係叫你𩒹高追。今日美國冇一線數據出,方向睇邊度?睇德黑蘭嗰邊嘅頭條飛邊度囉。

今日關鍵水位:

SPY:756 [6]——必須企穩之上,先至keep到歷史高位結構;一跌穿約752,就引月結獲利回吐。
10年債息:4.445% [13]——升穿4.50%就壓估值;跌穿4.40%就鬆綁,利好股市。
30年債息:4.978% [12]——收市企上5.00%,對風險資產嚟講係regime級別嘅警號。
原油:$87.16 [1]——跌穿$85證實停火;重上$90就代表霍爾木茲風險重新定價。
黃金:$415.29(GLD,+0.61%)[16]——結構性受捧;呢度行強,即係話雖然VIX平靜,但資金仍然轉去避險。

**要留意:**今日(5月29日,星期五)美國冇大數據出——純粹係頭條同資金流主導嘅一日,行向月結。下一批催化劑,係6月5日(星期五)嘅就業報告,同6月10日(星期三)嘅CPI。如果NFP數字、或者CPI核心按月高過0.4%,就會坐實「唔減息」呢個睇法,長債繼續受壓。

**一個會即刻反轉成日嘅劇本:**萬一霍爾木茲嘅襲擊升級,又或者伊朗停火明顯爛尾,原油就會跳空重上$90,油價帶動嘅通脹回落順風即刻清零。咁就會即刻反轉今日略偏好友嘅傾向——VIX期貨抽升、長債拋售重啟殺向5%,股市亦守唔住個歷史高位。你話係咪一鋪清袋咁緊要?

參考資料 [1] Current data, crude_futures 87.16, change −1.74 (20260529, pre-market) [2] Bloomberg, "Oil Set for May Slide as Traders Bet on US-Iran Truce Renewal," https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-28/oil-edges-lower-at-open-on-tentative-deal-to-extend-iran-truce [3] Bloomberg, "Ships Attacked in Strait of Hormuz This Week, Chevron CEO Says," https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-05-29/chevron-ceo-on-recent-ship-attacks-in-strait-of-hormuz-video [4] Bloomberg, "Inflation Above ECB Comfort Zone in Top Economies Backs Hike," https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-29/french-inflation-accelerates-to-highest-in-more-than-two-years [5] Bloomberg, "Japan Used Record $73.6 Billion to Support Yen in Past Month," https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-29/japan-used-record-73-6-billion-to-support-yen-in-past-month [6] Current data, SPY 756.02 (+0.19%), QQQ 737.07 (+0.20%) [20260529] [7] Current data, vix_spot 15.71 [2026-05-29] [8] Current data, ppi_yoy 9.82, cpi_yoy 3.95 [as of 2026-04-01] [9] Current data, core_pce_yoy 3.29 [as of 2026-04-01] [10] Current data, fed_funds_rate 3.64 [as of 2026-04-01] [11] Bloomberg, "The Debut Bessent-Warsh Breakfast Left Fed Rate Cuts Off the Menu," https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-05-29/the-debut-bessent-warsh-breakfast-left-fed-rate-cuts-off-the-menu [12] Current data, yield_30y 4.978% [2026-05-29] [13] Current data, yield_10y 4.445% [2026-05-29] [14] Current data, vix_front_future 17.8, vix_contango_pct 13.3% [2026-05-29] [15] Current data, put_call_ratio 1.837 [2026-05-29] [16] Current data, gld_price 415.29 (+0.61%) [2026-05-29]