赤字破頂遇上溫和CPI：今晚係債息贏咗

開市前個睇法係咁：就算CPI數字幾溫和，都會俾供應壓死。結果啱咗一半。

股市方面，大家係照單全收咗個通脹數字：SPY收772.92，升0.31% [1]，QQQ收723.97，升0.77% [2]，核心通脹偏軟 [3][4]，指數距離歷史新高只差一步。睇落好開心。

但債市完全冇理你股市慶祝。$420億10年期國債拍賣，要俾到2007年以嚟最高嘅息率先賣得出 [5]，10年期收4.682% [6]，30年期5.247% [7]。呢個先係呢個分析框架真正睇重嘅訊號——通脹數字明明溫和,長息就係唔肯跌。你話係咪好古怪？

今日真正嘅主角根本唔係CPI。係兩單相隔幾個鐘出嘅新聞撞埋一齊。7月財政赤字破頂,$4,320億,聯邦開支加速 [8];同一日,財政部要用2007年嘅價錢先派得走$420億紙 [5]。發債量對需求嘅算術題,一日之內做晒俾你睇。

聯邦基金利率3.63% [9],30年期5.247% [7]——差162個點子。我話你聽,呢個差距講緊嘅係:定資金成本嘅係債市,唔係聯儲局。仲有,整體CPI按年3.54% [10]、核心PCE 3.29% [11],兩個都高過目標一個百分點以上;PPI 10.11% [12] 更加係條冇人肯打折嘅上游數。

孳息曲線陡得唔健康。 2年對10年息差 +48個點子 [13],2年期4.21% [14]——即係話成個陡峭化都係長端搞出嚟嘅。呢個係期限溢價嘅故事,唔係減息嘅故事,兩件事唔好撈埋一齊講。3個月對10年 +98點子 [15]、13週票據3.707% [16],印證同一個形狀。

TLT收82.06,跌0.16% [17]。跌幅唔算大,但你諗下——通脹數字溫和意外向下嘅一日,長債本應要升㗎嘛?佢冇升。你估下點解?

波幅市場繼續瞓覺。 VIX現貨收14.47 [18],前月期貨16.0 [19],正價差10.57% [20]——正常格局,冇轉倉壓力,VIX ETF嘅機制仲係喺度慢慢流血,唔係搶貨。現貨只高過52週低位13.47 [21] 一百個點子,離31.05嘅高位 [22] 十萬八千里。IV rank得5.6 [23]、ATM IV 8.22% [24],即係話期權平到差唔多見底。

唯一唔協調嗰粒音符:認沽認購比率1.067 [25]。有人喺度買保險,但隱含波幅完全冇為風險定價。呢兩樣同時發生,唔係咁㗎喎。

商品市場就分咗兩派。 原油收$82.85,跌$0.35 [26],USO跌0.44% [27],因為伊朗談判卡住咗 [28]。黃金就行相反路:GLD收404.55,升0.90% [29]——避險陣營入面最突出嗰個。

油跌金升,呢個唔係增長交易,係貨幣同債務交易。配埋美元廣義指數119.06 [30],再配埋一個要收2007年息率先肯要貨嘅國債市場——三件事講緊同一個故仔。

聽日睇乜:

30年期息率:5.247% [7] 就係條線。收上5.30%以上,赤字故事就由「有序」變「失序」,股市估值就有排煩。
GLD:404.55 [29]。企穩408以上,即係確認資金真係喺度換避險工具——由國債轉去黃金,唔係淨係對沖CPI咁簡單。
VIX正價差:10.57% [20]。壓縮到~5%以下係格局轉變嘅早期警號;倒掛就係警鐘。
原油:$82.85 [26]。伊朗有進展跌穿$80,通脹上游即刻降溫;升穿$86就打回原形。

要留意:隔夜 日本10年期2.67% [31]、德國10年期2.97% [32]。日本長息再上一級,對沖後買美債嘅成本就會再貴——而呢個星期嘅拍賣,靠嘅正正就係嗰一撮邊際買盤。抽走佢,你估下之後會點?

參考資料 [1] SPY close 772.92, +0.31%, 2026-08-12 (market data) [2] QQQ close 723.97, +0.77%, 2026-08-12 (market data) [3] "US Core Inflation Comes in Subdued, Easing Pressure on Fed," Bloomberg — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-12/us-core-inflation-was-subdued-in-july-easing-pressure-on-fed [4] "S&P 500 Rises to Brink of Record on Tame Inflation: Markets Wrap," Bloomberg — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-11/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates [5] "US Sells 10-Year Debt at Highest Yields Since Financial Crisis," Bloomberg — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-12/bond-traders-keep-cointoss-wager-on-september-fed-hike-post-cpi [6] US 10-year yield 4.682%, 2026-08-12 [7] US 30-year yield 5.247%, 2026-08-12 [8] "US Budget Deficit Surged in July on Acceleration in Spending," Bloomberg — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-12/us-budget-deficit-surged-in-july-on-acceleration-in-spending [9] Fed funds rate 3.63%, as of 2026-07-01 (FRED) [10] CPI YoY 3.54%, as of 2026-07-01 (FRED) [11] Core PCE YoY 3.29%, as of 2026-06-01 (FRED) [12] PPI YoY 10.11%, as of 2026-06-01 (FRED) [13] 2s10s spread +48bp, as of 2026-08-11 [14] US 2-year yield 4.21%, as of 2026-08-07 [15] 3m10y spread +98bp (0.975pp), 2026-08-12 [16] US 13-week yield 3.707%, 2026-08-12 [17] TLT close 82.06, -0.16%, 2026-08-12 [18] VIX spot 14.47, 2026-08-12 [19] VIX front future 16.0, 2026-08-12 [20] VIX contango 10.57%, 2026-08-12 [21] VIX 52-week low 13.47 [22] VIX 52-week high 31.05 [23] IV rank 5.6 [24] ATM IV 8.22%, expiry 2026-08-12 [25] Put/call ratio 1.067 [26] Crude futures (Sep 26) $82.85, -$0.35, 2026-08-12 [27] USO close 127.05, -0.44%, 2026-08-12 [28] "Latest Oil Market News and Analysis for Aug. 12," Bloomberg — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-11/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-aug-12 [29] GLD close 404.55, +0.90%, 2026-08-12 [30] DXY broad 119.06, as of 2026-08-07 [31] Japan 10-year yield 2.67%, as of 2026-06-01 [32] Germany 10-year yield 2.97%, as of 2026-06-01